Multi-site hydrometeorological simulation of streamflow for upper Jhelum basin in northwest Himalayas using HEC–HMS soil moisture accounting algorithm

• Published in: Modeling earth systems and environment Vol. 9; no. 1; pp. 431 - 455
• Main Authors: Naqash, Taroob Bashir, Ahanger, Manzoor Ahmad, Maity, Rajib
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer International Publishing 01.03.2023
• Subjects: Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Computer Science; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth System Sciences; Ecosystems; Environment; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences; Original Article; Physics; Statistics for Engineering; Validation; HEC–HMS model; Sensitivity analysis; Calibration; Continuous modeling; SMA
• ISSN: 2363-6203; 2363-6211
• DOI: 10.1007/s40808-022-01510-7

Hydrometeorological influence on run-off is a process-driven mechanism in basin hydrology that needs to be captured for a reliable assessment of the basin-scale hydrological responses in the context of climate change. In this study, one of such process-based model, the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modeling System model is used to simulate multi-site streamflow in the upper Jhelum basin, northwest Himalayas, India. The soil moisture accounting algorithm was used to calibrate and validate the model for continuous simulation on a monthly timescale at three gauging stations Ram Munshi Bhag, Sangam, and Rambiara. The model was calibrated for a period of 12 years (2003–2014) and validated for 5 years (2015–2019). Observed and simulated streamflow values during the calibration period were found to be in good agreement with R 2 ranging from 0.783 to 0.808, NSE from 0.753 to 0.793, and P.B from 2.7 to 5.1%. Similar performance was obtained during the validation period also with R 2 ranging from 0.80 to 0.83, NSE from 0.70 to 0.80, and PB from 2 to 6.8%. The sensitivity analysis of the model was performed using one-at-a-time analysis method. This helps to rank the parameter according to their sensitivities towards the model performance in simulating run-off volume. Soil storage, soil tension storage, and soil percolation were found to be the most sensitive parameters while groundwater-2 coefficient storage, and percolation were the least sensitive parameters in the basin. The overall model performance was reasonably good, and can be further used for rainfall–run-off simulation in the upper Jhelum basin for the climate change impact related studies in future.