Bayesian Reliability Assessment and Degradation Modeling with Calibrations and Random Failure Threshold
A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead...
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| Published in | Shanghai jiao tong da xue xue bao Vol. 21; no. 4; pp. 478 - 483 |
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| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Shanghai
Shanghai Jiaotong University Press
01.08.2016
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1007-1172 1995-8188 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s12204-016-1750-z |
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| Abstract | A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degra- dation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making. |
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| AbstractList | A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degradation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making. A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degra- dation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making. |
| Author | 黄金波 孔德景 崔利荣 |
| AuthorAffiliation | School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China Naval Academy of Armament, Beijing 100161, China |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1109/TR.2011.2170254 10.1080/00401706.1988.10488361 10.1016/j.ress.2012.09.015 10.1016/S0951-8320(02)00201-6 10.1109/TR.2013.2270424 10.1109/TR.1977.5220195 10.1016/j.ress.2006.02.002 10.1016/j.ress.2006.01.006 |
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| Keywords | reliability assessment A calibrations Bayesian method degradation modeling TP 802.1 random failure threshold multi-stage system |
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| Notes | 31-1943/U HUANG Jinbo, KONG Dejing, CUI Lirong （1. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China 2. Naval Academy of Armament, Beijing 100161, China） Bayesian method, reliability assessment, degradation modeling, calibrations, random failure thresh-old, multi-stage system A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degra- dation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making. ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
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| References | Barlow, Scheuer (CR1) 1966; 8 Crk (CR4) 2000 Bae, Kuo, Kvam (CR3) 2007; 92 Smith, F (CR2) 1977; 26 Peng, Huang, Xie (CR9) 2013; 62 Wang, Coit (CR8) 2007 Martz, Wailer, Fickas (CR10) 1988; 30 Zhao (CR6) 2003; 79 Kong, Cui (CR13) 2016; 230 Warr, Collins (CR12) 2014; 228 Wang, Huang, Li (CR7) 2011; 60 Wang, Pan, Li (CR11) 2013; 112 Zhou, Xi, Lee (CR5) 2007; 92 Z L Wang (1750_CR7) 2011; 60 R E Barlow (1750_CR1) 1966; 8 Y X Zhao (1750_CR6) 2003; 79 V Crk (1750_CR4) 2000 W W Peng (1750_CR9) 2013; 62 X Zhou (1750_CR5) 2007; 92 R L Warr (1750_CR12) 2014; 228 A Smith (1750_CR2) 1977; 26 L Z Wang (1750_CR11) 2013; 112 D J Kong (1750_CR13) 2016; 230 H F Martz (1750_CR10) 1988; 30 P Wang (1750_CR8) 2007 S J Bae (1750_CR3) 2007; 92 |
| References_xml | – start-page: 392 year: 2007 end-page: 397 ident: CR8 article-title: Reliability and degradation modeling with random or uncertain failure threshold [C]// 2007 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. [s.l.] publication-title: IEEE – start-page: 155 year: 2000 end-page: 161 ident: CR4 article-title: Reliability assessment from degradation data [C]// 2000 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. [s.l.] publication-title: IEEE – volume: 60 start-page: 852 issue: 4 year: 2011 end-page: 863 ident: CR7 article-title: An approach to reliability assessment under degradation and shock process [J] publication-title: IEEE Transactions on Reliability doi: 10.1109/TR.2011.2170254 – volume: 30 start-page: 143 issue: 2 year: 1988 end-page: 154 ident: CR10 article-title: Bayesian reliability analysis of series systems of binomial subsystems and components [J] publication-title: Technometrics doi: 10.1080/00401706.1988.10488361 – volume: 230 start-page: 18 issue: 1 year: 2016 end-page: 33 ident: CR13 article-title: Bayesian inference of multistage reliability for degradation systems with calibrations [J] publication-title: Journal of Risk and Reliability – volume: 112 start-page: 38 issue: 1 year: 2013 end-page: 47 ident: CR11 article-title: A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information [J] publication-title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.09.015 – volume: 79 start-page: 301 issue: 3 year: 2003 end-page: 308 ident: CR6 article-title: On preventive maintenance policy of a critical reliability level for system subject to degradation [J] publication-title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety doi: 10.1016/S0951-8320(02)00201-6 – volume: 62 start-page: 689 issue: 3 year: 2013 end-page: 699 ident: CR9 article-title: A Bayesian approach for system reliability analysis with multilevel pass-fail, lifetime and degradation data sets [J] publication-title: IEEE Transactions on Reliability doi: 10.1109/TR.2013.2270424 – volume: 26 start-page: 346 issue: 5 year: 1977 end-page: 347 ident: CR2 article-title: A Bayesian note on reliability growth during a development testing program [J] publication-title: IEEE Transactions on Reliability doi: 10.1109/TR.1977.5220195 – volume: 92 start-page: 601 issue: 5 year: 2007 end-page: 608 ident: CR3 article-title: Degradation models and implied lifetime distributions [J] publication-title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.02.002 – volume: 228 start-page: 166 issue: 2 year: 2014 end-page: 175 ident: CR12 article-title: Bayesian nonparametric models for combining heterogeneous reliability data [J] publication-title: Journal of Risk and Reliability – volume: 92 start-page: 530 issue: 4 year: 2007 end-page: 534 ident: CR5 article-title: Reliability-centered predictive maintenance scheduling for a continuously monitored system subject to degradation [J] publication-title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.01.006 – volume: 8 start-page: 53 issue: 1 year: 1966 end-page: 60 ident: CR1 article-title: Reliabilitv growth during a development testing progiam [J] publication-title: Technometrics – volume: 26 start-page: 346 issue: 5 year: 1977 ident: 1750_CR2 publication-title: IEEE Transactions on Reliability doi: 10.1109/TR.1977.5220195 – start-page: 392 volume-title: IEEE year: 2007 ident: 1750_CR8 – volume: 60 start-page: 852 issue: 4 year: 2011 ident: 1750_CR7 publication-title: IEEE Transactions on Reliability doi: 10.1109/TR.2011.2170254 – volume: 112 start-page: 38 issue: 1 year: 2013 ident: 1750_CR11 publication-title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.09.015 – volume: 92 start-page: 530 issue: 4 year: 2007 ident: 1750_CR5 publication-title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.01.006 – volume: 62 start-page: 689 issue: 3 year: 2013 ident: 1750_CR9 publication-title: IEEE Transactions on Reliability doi: 10.1109/TR.2013.2270424 – volume: 30 start-page: 143 issue: 2 year: 1988 ident: 1750_CR10 publication-title: Technometrics doi: 10.1080/00401706.1988.10488361 – volume: 230 start-page: 18 issue: 1 year: 2016 ident: 1750_CR13 publication-title: Journal of Risk and Reliability – volume: 79 start-page: 301 issue: 3 year: 2003 ident: 1750_CR6 publication-title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety doi: 10.1016/S0951-8320(02)00201-6 – start-page: 155 volume-title: IEEE year: 2000 ident: 1750_CR4 – volume: 92 start-page: 601 issue: 5 year: 2007 ident: 1750_CR3 publication-title: Reliability Engineering and System Safety doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.02.002 – volume: 8 start-page: 53 issue: 1 year: 1966 ident: 1750_CR1 publication-title: Technometrics – volume: 228 start-page: 166 issue: 2 year: 2014 ident: 1750_CR12 publication-title: Journal of Risk and Reliability |
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| SubjectTerms | Architecture Bayesian analysis Calibration Computer Science Constants Degradation Electrical Engineering Engineering Failure Life Sciences Materials Science Modelling Reliability analysis Thresholds 可靠性评估模型 失效阈值 建模方法 校准程序 贝叶斯方法 退化模型 降解过程 随机 |
| Title | Bayesian Reliability Assessment and Degradation Modeling with Calibrations and Random Failure Threshold |
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