Bayesian Reliability Assessment and Degradation Modeling with Calibrations and Random Failure Threshold

A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead...

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Published inShanghai jiao tong da xue xue bao Vol. 21; no. 4; pp. 478 - 483
Main Author 黄金波 孔德景 崔利荣
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Shanghai Shanghai Jiaotong University Press 01.08.2016
Subjects
Architecture
Bayesian analysis
Calibration
Computer Science
Constants
Degradation
Electrical Engineering
Engineering
Failure
Life Sciences
Materials Science
Modelling
Reliability analysis
Thresholds
可靠性评估模型
失效阈值
建模方法
校准程序
贝叶斯方法
退化模型
降解过程
随机
reliability assessment
A
calibrations
Bayesian method
degradation modeling
TP 802.1
random failure threshold
multi-stage system
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1007-1172
1995-8188
DOI10.1007/s12204-016-1750-z

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Summary:A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degra- dation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making.
Bibliography:31-1943/U
HUANG Jinbo, KONG Dejing, CUI Lirong （1. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China 2. Naval Academy of Armament, Beijing 100161, China）
Bayesian method, reliability assessment, degradation modeling, calibrations, random failure thresh-old, multi-stage system
A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degra- dation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making.
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ISSN:1007-1172
1995-8188
DOI:10.1007/s12204-016-1750-z