Outlook on the future role of robots and AI in material recovery facilities: Implications for U.S. recycling and the workforce

• Published in: Journal of cleaner production Vol. 470; p. 143234
• Main Authors: Chertow, Marian, Reck, Barbara K., Wrzesniewski, Amy, Calli, Berk
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 10.09.2024
• Subjects: artificial intelligence; Experience of work; Future of work; issues and policy; labor force; Material recovery facilities (MRFs); municipal solid waste; Municipal solid waste (MSW) management; private sector; Recycling; robots; Scenario storylines; vision; Scenario storylines; Recycling; Material recovery facilities (MRFs); Experience of work; Municipal solid waste (MSW) management; Future of work
• ISSN: 0959-6526
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143234

This study offers a comprehensive discussion of the future role of robots and artificial intelligence (AI) in U.S. recycling under different policy environments and its impact on the workforce. The state of recycling in the U.S. is changing rapidly, with techno-economic developments transforming the efficacy and sustainability of recycling and the workforce it employs. This study describes the technical, social, and policy drivers that influence U.S. municipal solid waste (MSW) management and explores pathways for more sustainable outcomes by focusing on different technology options for the sorting of recyclables in material recovery facilities (MRFs). This study presents four distinct scenario storylines for U.S. recycling by 2050 that contrast recycling and robotic futures, particularly with MRFs that maximize material recovery, worker experience, and economic competitiveness, respectively. This study finds that a recycling scenario defined by strong policy support for recycling and the addition of increasingly flexible, collaborative technology in the form of robotics coupled with AI-driven vision systems, offers the greatest potential for better results. Less certain is the role of MRFs by 2050 based on the full cost for public actors and substantial changes in private industry. Insights from this study can directly inform future techno-economic analyses, technology decisions, and policy recommendations. •Future recycling is likely to feature more use of robotics and AI in its processing.•The introduction of technology to recycling will impact workforce numbers and job types.•By 2050, policy support for recycling is likely to increase in the U.S.•Scenario analysis of future paths for recycling enables refined techno-economic analysis.