Is Expert Input Valuable? The Case of Predicting Surgery Duration

Most data-driven decision support tools do not include input from people. We study whether and how to incorporate physician input into such tools, in an empirical setting of predicting the surgery duration. Using data from a hospital, we evaluate and compare the performances of three families of mod...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inSeoul Journal of Business Vol. 25; no. 2; pp. 1 - 34
Main Authors Ibrahim, Rouba, Kim, Song-Hee
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Seoul Seoul National University, College of Business Administration 01.12.2019
경영연구소
Subjects
Accuracy
Decision making
Hospitals
Regression analysis
Surgeons
Surgery
경영학
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1226-9816
2713-6213
DOI10.35152/snusjb.2019.25.2.001

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Summary:Most data-driven decision support tools do not include input from people. We study whether and how to incorporate physician input into such tools, in an empirical setting of predicting the surgery duration. Using data from a hospital, we evaluate and compare the performances of three families of models: models with physician forecasts, purely data-based models, and models that combine physician forecasts and data. We find that combined models perform the best, which suggests that physician forecasts have valuable information above and beyond what is captured by data. We also find that applying simple corrections to physician forecasts performs comparably well.
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ISSN:1226-9816
2713-6213
DOI:10.35152/snusjb.2019.25.2.001