Apples to apples, fighters to submarines: comparative analysis of conventional capability-based signalling capacity through technologically weighted state arsenal indexing

• Published in: Journal of military studies Vol. 12; no. 1; pp. 85 - 103
• Main Author: Roberts, Lee Habib
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Helsinki Sciendo 01.12.2023; De Gruyter Poland
• Subjects: capabilities; Comparative analysis; conventional technology; Credibility; Government agencies; international politics; Methods; Military technology; strategic signalling; strategy; Weapons; World War II; United States > US; China; Europe; Ukraine; Russia; India
• ISSN: 1799-3350; 2242-3524; 1799-3350
• DOI: 10.2478/jms-2023-0007

In this article, I propose a new contribution to the field of comparative analysis of state conventional military capabilities. First, I review perspectives of other scholars on the merits of comparing capabilities, arguing that the most accessible insights lie in evaluating the signals sent by state arsenals rather than in predicting conflict outcomes judging from state armament. Second, I present the Conventional Firepower Potential Indexing (CFPI) method and demonstrate that coding for tactical role and degree of technological sophistication enables previously unfeasible estimative comparisons of deterrent signalling value. Finally, I apply CFPI analysis to the conventional arsenals of the United States and the four states named in that country’s most recent National Defense Strategy (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran), deriving conclusions that would be elusive without accessible comparative analysis.