Multi-events earthquake early warning algorithm using a Bayesian approach

• Published in: Geophysical Journal International Vol. 200; no. 2; pp. 791 - 808
• Main Authors: Wu, S., Yamada, M., Tamaribuchi, K., Beck, J. L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford University Press (OUP) 01.02.2015; Oxford University Press
• Subjects: and prediction; Early warning; Earthquake interaction; forecasting; Seismic attenuation; Early warning; Seismic attenuation; Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction
• ISSN: 0956-540X; 1365-246X; 1365-246X
• DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggu437

Current earthquake early warning (EEW) systems lack the ability to appropriately handle multiple concurrent earthquakes, which led to many false alarms during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence in Japan. This paper uses a Bayesian probabilistic approach to handle multiple concurrent events for EEW. We implement the theory using a two-step algorithm. First, an efficient approximate Bayesian model class selection scheme is used to estimate the number of concurrent events. Then, the Rao-Blackwellized Importance Sampling method with a sequential proposal probability density function is used to estimate the earthquake parameters, that is hypocentre location, origin time, magnitude and local seismic intensity. A real data example based on 2 months data (2011 March 9–April 30) around the time of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake is studied to verify the proposed algorithm. Our algorithm results in over 90 per cent reduction in the number of incorrect warnings compared to the existing EEW system operating in Japan.