Good practices in PSHA: declustering, b-value estimation, foreshocks and aftershocks inclusion; a case study in Italy

• Published in: Geophysical journal international Vol. 224; no. 2; pp. 1174 - 1187
• Main Authors: Taroni, Matteo, Akinci, Aybige
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford University Press 01.02.2021
• Subjects: Earthquake hazards; Statistical seismology; Probabilistic forecasting
• ISSN: 0956-540X; 1365-246X; 1365-246X
• DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggaa462

SUMMARY The classical procedure of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) requires a Poissonian distribution of earthquakes. Seismic catalogues follow a Poisson distribution just after the application of a declustering algorithm that leaves only one earthquake for each seismic sequence (usually the stronger, i.e. the main shock). Removing earthquakes from the seismic catalogues leads to underestimation of the annual rates of the events and consequently associate with low seismic hazard as indicated by several studies. In this study, we aim investigating the performance of two declustering methods on the Italian instrumental catalogue and the impact of declustering on estimation of the b-value and on the seismic hazard analysis. To this end, first the spatial variation in the seismicity rate was estimated from the declustered catalogues using the adaptive smoothed seismicity approach, considering small earthquakes (Mw ≥ 3.0). We then corrected the seismicity rates using new approach that allows for counting all events in the complete seismic catalogue by simply changing the magnitude frequency distribution. The impact of declustering on seismic hazard analysis is illustrated using PSHA maps in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration in 2 s, with 10 per cent and 2 per cent probability of exceedance in 50 yr, for Italy. We observed that the hazard calculated from the declustered catalogues was always lower than the hazard computed using the complete catalogue. These results are in agreement with previous results obtained in different parts of the world.