Uncertainty on Estimated Magnitudes: A New Approach Based on a Poisson Point Process of Dimension 2

The magnitudes recorded in seismic catalogues are subject to uncertainties that can have a significant impact when estimating the parameters of seismic recurrence models. In this paper, we propose an innovative approach based on a Poisson point process of dimension 2 that models both the magnitude h...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPure and applied geophysics Vol. 180; no. 3; pp. 919 - 933
Main Author Dutfoy, Anne
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Cham Springer International Publishing 01.03.2023
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Dimensions
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earthquakes
Geophysics/Geodesy
Mathematical models
Normal distribution
Parameters
Uncertainty
Gutenberg Richter
recurrence model
poisson point process
Magnitude
uncertainty
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ISSN0033-4553
1420-9136
DOI10.1007/s00024-022-03222-6

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Summary:The magnitudes recorded in seismic catalogues are subject to uncertainties that can have a significant impact when estimating the parameters of seismic recurrence models. In this paper, we propose an innovative approach based on a Poisson point process of dimension 2 that models both the magnitude hazard and the associated uncertainty. We define estimators of the parameters of the Gutenberg Richter model that maximize the likelihood of the data. We apply the approach to the Alps region in France and we compare it to other approaches proposed in the literature.
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ISSN:0033-4553
1420-9136
DOI:10.1007/s00024-022-03222-6