考虑再生水的多种组合情景需水预测及供需平衡分析
TV213; 从义乌市实际情况出发,确定68个系统变量,结合水文、社会、经济、生态系统四者之间的交互关系,充分考虑再生水的回用,构建系统动力学模型.通过设置48种未来经济-社会-环境耦合需水情景,对区域2020-2050年的需水量进行预测.在此基础上,增加3种再生水回用组合情景,对得到的144种供需情景进行3轮方案比选,选出两个方案集.其中一个方案集包括最有利于水安全保障和区域生态环境可持续发展的6种组合情景,另一个方案集包括极端缺水情况适用的6种组合情景.这些组合情景可为中长期水资源规划和决策提供可选方案集,模型可动态反映未来社会经济发展对义乌市用水特点的影响,综合考虑了生活、工业、农业和生...
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| Published in | 中国农村水利水电 no. 3; pp. 39 - 53 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
浙江大学建筑工程学院水文与水资源工程研究所,杭州 310058%浙江省水利河口研究院,杭州 310058
15.03.2022
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1007-2284 |
| DOI | 10.3969/j.issn.1007-2284.2022.03.007 |
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| Abstract | TV213; 从义乌市实际情况出发,确定68个系统变量,结合水文、社会、经济、生态系统四者之间的交互关系,充分考虑再生水的回用,构建系统动力学模型.通过设置48种未来经济-社会-环境耦合需水情景,对区域2020-2050年的需水量进行预测.在此基础上,增加3种再生水回用组合情景,对得到的144种供需情景进行3轮方案比选,选出两个方案集.其中一个方案集包括最有利于水安全保障和区域生态环境可持续发展的6种组合情景,另一个方案集包括极端缺水情况适用的6种组合情景.这些组合情景可为中长期水资源规划和决策提供可选方案集,模型可动态反映未来社会经济发展对义乌市用水特点的影响,综合考虑了生活、工业、农业和生态部门的用水需求,为水资源高效开发利用和优化配置提供科学依据. |
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| AbstractList | TV213; 从义乌市实际情况出发,确定68个系统变量,结合水文、社会、经济、生态系统四者之间的交互关系,充分考虑再生水的回用,构建系统动力学模型.通过设置48种未来经济-社会-环境耦合需水情景,对区域2020-2050年的需水量进行预测.在此基础上,增加3种再生水回用组合情景,对得到的144种供需情景进行3轮方案比选,选出两个方案集.其中一个方案集包括最有利于水安全保障和区域生态环境可持续发展的6种组合情景,另一个方案集包括极端缺水情况适用的6种组合情景.这些组合情景可为中长期水资源规划和决策提供可选方案集,模型可动态反映未来社会经济发展对义乌市用水特点的影响,综合考虑了生活、工业、农业和生态部门的用水需求,为水资源高效开发利用和优化配置提供科学依据. |
| Author | 郭玉雪 王贺龙 刘晶 许月萍 吴垚 郑超昊 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 浙江大学建筑工程学院水文与水资源工程研究所,杭州 310058%浙江省水利河口研究院,杭州 310058 |
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| Author_FL | LIU Jing ZHENG Chao-hao WU Yao XU Yue-ping GUO Yu-xue WANG He-long |
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| DocumentTitle_FL | Water Demand Prediction and Supply and Demand Balance Analysis of Multiple Combination Scenarios Considering the Use of Reclaimed Water |
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| Keywords | 系统动力学模型;需水预测;多情景分析;再生水;供需平衡 |
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| PublicationTitle | 中国农村水利水电 |
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| Publisher | 浙江大学建筑工程学院水文与水资源工程研究所,杭州 310058%浙江省水利河口研究院,杭州 310058 |
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| Title | 考虑再生水的多种组合情景需水预测及供需平衡分析 |
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