人类活动对流域气象-水文干旱传递的影响分析
P426.616; 分析人类活动对干旱传递的影响对于干旱预警以及减少社会经济损失具有重要意义.以潘家口水库流域4个气象水文站点的1960-2017年实测的逐月降水和径流序列为基础数据,采用标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipita-tion Index,SPI)和标准化径流指数(Standardized Runoff Index,SRI)分别来表征研究区域的气象干旱和水文干旱.通过非一致性检验的方法,结合流域实际情况,得到径流序列的突变点,并基于Pearson检验法和Copula模型分别计算基准期和人类活动期气象干旱传递为水文干旱的时间和传递概率来分析人类活动对干旱传递的影响...
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| Published in | 中国农村水利水电 no. 6; pp. 31 - 39 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室,江苏 南京 210029
15.06.2024
南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029 扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225000%扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225000%水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室,江苏 南京 210029 |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1007-2284 |
| DOI | 10.12396/znsd.231779 |
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| Abstract | P426.616; 分析人类活动对干旱传递的影响对于干旱预警以及减少社会经济损失具有重要意义.以潘家口水库流域4个气象水文站点的1960-2017年实测的逐月降水和径流序列为基础数据,采用标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipita-tion Index,SPI)和标准化径流指数(Standardized Runoff Index,SRI)分别来表征研究区域的气象干旱和水文干旱.通过非一致性检验的方法,结合流域实际情况,得到径流序列的突变点,并基于Pearson检验法和Copula模型分别计算基准期和人类活动期气象干旱传递为水文干旱的时间和传递概率来分析人类活动对干旱传递的影响.结果表明,潘家口水库流域的径流序列呈现显著减少趋势,径流序列的突变点在1979年前后.人类活动对流域的水文干旱及干旱传递均产生了显著的影响,人类活动明显增加了水文干旱的发生频率,降低了气象干旱和水文干旱之间的相关性.干旱传递时间呈现季节性差异,夏秋季的干旱传递时间短于春冬季.在人类活动的影响下,夏季的干旱传递时间普遍缩短1～4个月;春秋冬季干旱传递时间呈现不同的变化,但大部分站点干旱传递时间延长.在同一气象干旱条件下,引发水文干旱的概率随干旱等级的增加而减小,随着气象干旱的加剧,引发水文干旱的概率变大,干旱传递概率变化呈现出两种情形,人类活动可能促进或抑制水文干旱的发生,增加或减小干旱传播概率. |
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| AbstractList | P426.616; 分析人类活动对干旱传递的影响对于干旱预警以及减少社会经济损失具有重要意义.以潘家口水库流域4个气象水文站点的1960-2017年实测的逐月降水和径流序列为基础数据,采用标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipita-tion Index,SPI)和标准化径流指数(Standardized Runoff Index,SRI)分别来表征研究区域的气象干旱和水文干旱.通过非一致性检验的方法,结合流域实际情况,得到径流序列的突变点,并基于Pearson检验法和Copula模型分别计算基准期和人类活动期气象干旱传递为水文干旱的时间和传递概率来分析人类活动对干旱传递的影响.结果表明,潘家口水库流域的径流序列呈现显著减少趋势,径流序列的突变点在1979年前后.人类活动对流域的水文干旱及干旱传递均产生了显著的影响,人类活动明显增加了水文干旱的发生频率,降低了气象干旱和水文干旱之间的相关性.干旱传递时间呈现季节性差异,夏秋季的干旱传递时间短于春冬季.在人类活动的影响下,夏季的干旱传递时间普遍缩短1～4个月;春秋冬季干旱传递时间呈现不同的变化,但大部分站点干旱传递时间延长.在同一气象干旱条件下,引发水文干旱的概率随干旱等级的增加而减小,随着气象干旱的加剧,引发水文干旱的概率变大,干旱传递概率变化呈现出两种情形,人类活动可能促进或抑制水文干旱的发生,增加或减小干旱传播概率. |
| Abstract_FL | The analysis of the effect of human activities on the drought propagation is of great significance for drought early warning,and re-ducing the social and economic loss.Based on the measured monthly precipitation and runoff series from 1960 to 2017 at four meteorological and hydrological stations in Panjiakou Reservoir basin,Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)and Standardized Runoff Index(SRI)are used to characterize meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the study area.Through the method of non-stationarity test,com-bined with the actual situation of the basin,the abrupt change points of the runoff series are obtained.Based on the Pearson test method and Copula model,the propagation time and probabilities of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the base period and human activity period are calculated to analyze the impact of human activities on drought propagation.The results show that the runoff series of the Panjiakou Reservoir basin show a significant decreasing trend,and the abrupt change point of the runoff sequence is around 1979.Human activities have a significant impact on hydrological drought and drought transmission in the basin.Human activities significantly increase the frequency of hydrological drought and reduce the correlation between meteorological drought and hydrological drought.Drought propagation time show seasonal differences,with shorter drought propagation time in summer and autumn than in spring and winter.Under the influence of human activities,the drought propagation time in summer is generally shortened by 1-4 months;the drought propagation time in spring,autumn and winter showed different variations,but the drought propagation time was prolonged in most sites.Under the same meteorological drought condition,the probability of triggering hydrological drought decreases with the increase of drought level.The probability of hydrological drought occurring increases with the intensification of meteorological drought,and the change of drought propagation probability presents two situations:human activities may promote or inhibit the occurrence of hydrological drought,and increase or decrease the propagation proba-bility of drought. |
| Author | 张铭锋 李敏 邓晰元 冯子龙 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室,江苏 南京 210029;扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225000%扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225000%水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室,江苏 南京 210029;南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029 |
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| Author_FL | FENG Zi-long LI Min ZHANG Ming-feng DENG Xi-yuan |
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| DocumentTitle_FL | Analysis of the Influence of Human Activities on the Propagation of Meteorological Drought to Hydrological Drought in Basin |
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| Keywords | 传递时间 drought propagation 人类活动 human activities propagation probability Copula function 干旱传递 传递概率 Copula函数 propagation time |
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| Publisher | 水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室,江苏 南京 210029 南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029 扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225000%扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225000%水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室,江苏 南京 210029 |
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| Title | 人类活动对流域气象-水文干旱传递的影响分析 |
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