新疆库山河洪水过程模拟分析

TV122; 全球气候变暖背景下极端洪水灾害频发,对地处干旱、半干旱地区的新疆影响尤为明显,洪水灾害风险增大.为了提高干旱区洪水灾害应对能力,针对新疆典型流域库山河构建了洪水分析计算模型,确定模型关键参数和边界条件,经场次洪水验证,水深平均绝对误差为24.1 cm,相对误差为24%,决定系数为0.66;流量纳什系数为0.86,决定系数达到0.97,模型具有较高的计算精度.利用高精度河道地形,洪水灾害风险普查结果、遥感信息等资料建立流域数据底板,计算了不同频率下洪水行进过程、淹没范围、水深分布以及淹没历时等情景,实现了大尺度、全流域干旱区河流的洪水演进模拟,研究成果可以为干旱内陆区河流洪水风险分...

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Published in中国农村水利水电 no. 2; pp. 23 - 30
Main Authors 曹彪, 白云岗, 王新涛, 卢震林, 余其鹰, 牛芳鹏
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830049%新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830049 15.02.2024
郑州大学 水利科学与工程学院,河南 郑州 450001
Subjects
Kushan River
干旱区
scenario analysis
arid area
洪水
water flood
库山河
数值模拟
情景分析
numerical simulation
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1007-2284
DOI10.12396/znsd.230955

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Abstract TV122; 全球气候变暖背景下极端洪水灾害频发,对地处干旱、半干旱地区的新疆影响尤为明显,洪水灾害风险增大.为了提高干旱区洪水灾害应对能力,针对新疆典型流域库山河构建了洪水分析计算模型,确定模型关键参数和边界条件,经场次洪水验证,水深平均绝对误差为24.1 cm,相对误差为24%,决定系数为0.66;流量纳什系数为0.86,决定系数达到0.97,模型具有较高的计算精度.利用高精度河道地形,洪水灾害风险普查结果、遥感信息等资料建立流域数据底板,计算了不同频率下洪水行进过程、淹没范围、水深分布以及淹没历时等情景,实现了大尺度、全流域干旱区河流的洪水演进模拟,研究成果可以为干旱内陆区河流洪水风险分析提供技术依据.
AbstractList TV122; 全球气候变暖背景下极端洪水灾害频发,对地处干旱、半干旱地区的新疆影响尤为明显,洪水灾害风险增大.为了提高干旱区洪水灾害应对能力,针对新疆典型流域库山河构建了洪水分析计算模型,确定模型关键参数和边界条件,经场次洪水验证,水深平均绝对误差为24.1 cm,相对误差为24%,决定系数为0.66;流量纳什系数为0.86,决定系数达到0.97,模型具有较高的计算精度.利用高精度河道地形,洪水灾害风险普查结果、遥感信息等资料建立流域数据底板,计算了不同频率下洪水行进过程、淹没范围、水深分布以及淹没历时等情景,实现了大尺度、全流域干旱区河流的洪水演进模拟,研究成果可以为干旱内陆区河流洪水风险分析提供技术依据.
Abstract_FL Under the background of global warming,extreme flood disasters occur frequently,with a particularly significant impact on Xinji-ang,which is located in arid and semi-arid regions.The risk of flood disasters in this region is significantly increased.In order to improve the flood disaster response capacity of Xinjiang Province,reduce losses caused by flood disasters,and provide an example for rivers in arid areas to respond to flood disasters,this paper selects Kushan River in Xinjiang to carry out flood process simulation research.Kushan River is lo-cated at the western edge of Tarim Basin in southern Xinjiang,which is a typical river in arid inland areas.This paper constructs a flood anal-ysis and calculation model for the Kushan River,determines the key parameters and boundary conditions of the model.A typical flood is se-lected to validate the constructed model,and four indicators,absolute error(AE),relative error(RE),determination coefficient(R2),and Nash coefficient(NSE),are selected for model evaluation.The calculation results show that the average absolute error of water depth is 24.1 cm,the relative error is 24%,and the determination coefficient is 0.66.The Nash coefficient of flow is 0.86,and the determination coeffi-cient reaches 0.97,indicating that the constructed model and parameter settings have high accuracy.Using high-precision river terrain,flood disaster risk survey results,remote sensing information,a basin data base is established to calculate the flood progression,inundation range,water depth distribution,and inundation duration of the Kushan River under five typical frequencies of 10 year,20 year,50 year,100 year,and 200 year,achieving large-scale simulation of flood routing in arid areas of the entire basin.The research results can provide a technical basis for flood risk analysis of rivers in arid inland areas.
Author 王新涛
卢震林
牛芳鹏
白云岗
曹彪
余其鹰
AuthorAffiliation 新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830049%新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830049;郑州大学 水利科学与工程学院,河南 郑州 450001
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Author_FL NIU Fang-peng
CAO Biao
YU Qi-yin
LU Zheng-lin
BAI Yun-gang
WANG Xin-tao
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DocumentTitle_FL Simulation Analysis of Flood Process in Kushan River,Xinjiang
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Keywords Kushan River
干旱区
scenario analysis
arid area
洪水
water flood
库山河
数值模拟
情景分析
numerical simulation
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Publisher 新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830049%新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830049
郑州大学 水利科学与工程学院,河南 郑州 450001
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Title 新疆库山河洪水过程模拟分析
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