全球温升1.5～4.0℃水平下西江流域径流变化趋势
P339; 西江是华南地区最大水系珠江流域的主干,其径流变化对华南地区水资源供给至关重要.基于逐日气象观测数据,对耦合模式国际比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中包含7个情景(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP4-3.4、SSP4-6.0、SSP5-8.5)的5个气候模式进行降尺度和偏差订正,结合水文观测数据对SWAT水文模型进行率定和验证,预估分析了全球温升1.5、2.0、3.0和4.0℃水平下西江流域径流变化特征.结果表明:①1961-2020年,西江流域年平均气温以0.15℃/10 a的速率呈显著上升趋势;年降水量以-0.9 mm/10a的速率呈微...
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| Published in | 中国农村水利水电 no. 9; pp. 165 - 180 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
南京信息工程大学 地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,江苏 南京 210044%北京市气象探测中心,北京 100176
15.09.2024
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1007-2284 |
| DOI | 10.12396/znsd.240101 |
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| Abstract | P339; 西江是华南地区最大水系珠江流域的主干,其径流变化对华南地区水资源供给至关重要.基于逐日气象观测数据,对耦合模式国际比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中包含7个情景(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP4-3.4、SSP4-6.0、SSP5-8.5)的5个气候模式进行降尺度和偏差订正,结合水文观测数据对SWAT水文模型进行率定和验证,预估分析了全球温升1.5、2.0、3.0和4.0℃水平下西江流域径流变化特征.结果表明:①1961-2020年,西江流域年平均气温以0.15℃/10 a的速率呈显著上升趋势;年降水量以-0.9 mm/10a的速率呈微弱下降趋势.全球温升1.5～4.0℃水平下,西江流域年平均气温较工业革命前将升高1.7℃(模式范围:1.2～2.2℃)～4.0℃(3.7～4.3℃);流域年降水量较基准期有所增加,且在全球温升3.0℃和4.0℃时增幅较明显.②1961-2020年,西江流域年径流为6 923.5 m3/s,以-19.0(m3·s)/10 a的速率呈减少趋势.相比基准期(1995-2014年),全球温升1.5～4.0℃水平下,西江流域年径流将增加3.5％(-20.4％～28.4％)～10.5％(-18.7％～43.2％);7-11月径流较基准期呈增加趋势,4-6月径流呈减少趋势,12月到次年三月径流均在温升3.0℃时出现较基准期有所减少,其他温升水平下呈微弱增加.③与基准期相比,4种温升水平下流域发生洪水和枯水的风险均呈增加趋势,且温升水平越高,流域发生洪水和枯水的风险越大,历史时期百年一遇的洪水在全球温升1.5～4.0℃水平下将分别变为45～50、15～28、10～18、5～8 a一遇;百年一遇枯水事件发生的时长在不同温升水平下将变为不足40～46、22～25、12～13和8～10 a一遇.随着全球气温升高,流域发生丰、枯水事件的风险将有所增加,可能对西江流域水资源管理和防洪抗旱工程造成威胁. |
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| AbstractList | P339; 西江是华南地区最大水系珠江流域的主干,其径流变化对华南地区水资源供给至关重要.基于逐日气象观测数据,对耦合模式国际比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中包含7个情景(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP4-3.4、SSP4-6.0、SSP5-8.5)的5个气候模式进行降尺度和偏差订正,结合水文观测数据对SWAT水文模型进行率定和验证,预估分析了全球温升1.5、2.0、3.0和4.0℃水平下西江流域径流变化特征.结果表明:①1961-2020年,西江流域年平均气温以0.15℃/10 a的速率呈显著上升趋势;年降水量以-0.9 mm/10a的速率呈微弱下降趋势.全球温升1.5～4.0℃水平下,西江流域年平均气温较工业革命前将升高1.7℃(模式范围:1.2～2.2℃)～4.0℃(3.7～4.3℃);流域年降水量较基准期有所增加,且在全球温升3.0℃和4.0℃时增幅较明显.②1961-2020年,西江流域年径流为6 923.5 m3/s,以-19.0(m3·s)/10 a的速率呈减少趋势.相比基准期(1995-2014年),全球温升1.5～4.0℃水平下,西江流域年径流将增加3.5％(-20.4％～28.4％)～10.5％(-18.7％～43.2％);7-11月径流较基准期呈增加趋势,4-6月径流呈减少趋势,12月到次年三月径流均在温升3.0℃时出现较基准期有所减少,其他温升水平下呈微弱增加.③与基准期相比,4种温升水平下流域发生洪水和枯水的风险均呈增加趋势,且温升水平越高,流域发生洪水和枯水的风险越大,历史时期百年一遇的洪水在全球温升1.5～4.0℃水平下将分别变为45～50、15～28、10～18、5～8 a一遇;百年一遇枯水事件发生的时长在不同温升水平下将变为不足40～46、22～25、12～13和8～10 a一遇.随着全球气温升高,流域发生丰、枯水事件的风险将有所增加,可能对西江流域水资源管理和防洪抗旱工程造成威胁. |
| Abstract_FL | The Xijiang River is the mainstem of the largest water system in South China,the Pearl River Basin,and its runoff variability is critical to the water supply in South China.In this paper,based on the day-by-day meteorological observation data,five climate models con-taining seven scenarios(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0,SSP5-8.5)in the sixth phase of the Coupled Models International Intercomparison Program(CMIP6)are revised in terms of downscaling and bias,and the SWAT hydrological model is predicted and analyzed in combination with the hydrological observation data.The SWAT hydrological model was rate-determined and vali-dated with hydrological observation data,and the runoff change characteristics of the Xijiang River Basin under the global temperature rise levels of 1.5,2.0,3.0 and 4.0℃ were predicted and analyzed.The results show that:① From 1961 to 2020,the annual mean temperature in the Xijiang River basin shows a significant upward trend at the rate of 0.15 ℃/10 a;the annual precipitation shows a weak downward trend at the rate of-0.9 mm/10 a.At the global warming of 1.5～4.0 ℃,the annual mean temperature in the Xijiang River basin will increase by 1.7℃ (model range:1.2～2.2℃ )～4.0℃ (3.7～4.3℃ )compared with the pre-industrial revolution;the annual precipitation in the basin in-creases compared with the base period,and the increase is more obvious at the global warming of 3.0℃ and 4.0℃ .② From 1961 to 2020,the annual runoff in the Xijiang River Basin is 6 923.5 m3/s,with a decreasing trend at a rate of-19.0(m3?s)/10 a.Compared with the base period(1995-2014),the annual runoff in the Xijiang River Basin will increase by 3.5％(-20.4％～28.4％)～10.5％(-18.7％～43.2％)under the global warming of 1.5～4.0℃;the runoff from July to November shows an increasing trend compared with that of the base period,and the runoff from April to June runoff showed a decreasing trend,and runoff from December to March of the following year all showed a decrease from the base period at a temperature rise of 3.0℃,and a slight increase at other global warming levels.③ Compared with the base period,the risk of flooding and dry water in the basin under the four temperature rise levels shows an increasing trend,and the higher the tempera-ture rise level,the higher the risk of flooding and dry water in the basin,and the flood with one in a hundred years in the historical period will become one in less than 45～50 years,one in 15～28 years,one in 10～18 years,and one in 5～8 years under the level of global tempera-ture rise level of 1.5～4.0℃;the length of one-in-a-hundred-year dry water events will become one in less than 40～46 years,one in 22～25 years,one in 12～13 years,and one in 8～10 years under the different levels of global temperature rise.With the increase of global tempera-tures,the risk of abundant and depleted water events in the basin will increase,which may pose a threat to water resources management and flood and drought control projects in the Xijiang River Basin. |
| Author | 单敬敬 陈梓延 姜彤 苏布达 孙赫敏 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 南京信息工程大学 地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,江苏 南京 210044%北京市气象探测中心,北京 100176 |
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| Author_FL | JIANG Tong CHEN Zi-yan SUN He-min SHAN Jing-jing SU Bu-da |
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| DocumentTitle_FL | Study of Runoff Changes in the Xijiang River Basin Under the Global Warming of 1.5～4.0 |
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| Keywords | 全球温升1.5~4.0 径流变化 the global warming of 1.5～4.0 extreme events 西江流域 runoff changes Xijiang River basin 极端事件 |
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| Publisher | 南京信息工程大学 地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,江苏 南京 210044%北京市气象探测中心,北京 100176 |
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| Snippet | P339; 西江是华南地区最大水系珠江流域的主干,其径流变化对华南地区水资源供给至关重要.基于逐日气象观测数据,对耦合模式国际比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中包含7个情... |
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| Title | 全球温升1.5～4.0℃水平下西江流域径流变化趋势 |
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