基于藤Copula多维联合分布的CMIP5多模式降雨综合方法研究
P456.7; CMIP5中不同GCM模式对降雨的模拟能力不同,且存在较大不确定性.本文采用藤Copula技术构建不同GCM模式降雨与实测降雨间的多维联合分布模型,推求以模式降雨为条件的实测降雨的条件分布函数,并据此对多模式降雨进行综合,以提高其模拟与预估精度.以梧州站以上流域1961-2005年面雨量为例开展了示例研究.首先利用泰勒图从12个GCM模式中优选了6个综合模拟能力较好的模式,随后采用C藤和D藤Copula分别建立了实测降雨与6个模式模拟降雨间的联合分布,并基于AIC、BIC和对数似然值指标,优选出C藤Copula作为多模式降雨的综合模型.结果表明,使用C藤Copula方法得到的多...
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| Published in | 中国农村水利水电 no. 4; pp. 10 - 15 |
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| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098
15.04.2021
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1007-2284 |
| DOI | 10.3969/j.issn.1007-2284.2021.04.002 |
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| Abstract | P456.7; CMIP5中不同GCM模式对降雨的模拟能力不同,且存在较大不确定性.本文采用藤Copula技术构建不同GCM模式降雨与实测降雨间的多维联合分布模型,推求以模式降雨为条件的实测降雨的条件分布函数,并据此对多模式降雨进行综合,以提高其模拟与预估精度.以梧州站以上流域1961-2005年面雨量为例开展了示例研究.首先利用泰勒图从12个GCM模式中优选了6个综合模拟能力较好的模式,随后采用C藤和D藤Copula分别建立了实测降雨与6个模式模拟降雨间的联合分布,并基于AIC、BIC和对数似然值指标,优选出C藤Copula作为多模式降雨的综合模型.结果表明,使用C藤Copula方法得到的多模式综合降雨,其精度高于任一单模式,亦优于多模式的集合平均值. |
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| AbstractList | P456.7; CMIP5中不同GCM模式对降雨的模拟能力不同,且存在较大不确定性.本文采用藤Copula技术构建不同GCM模式降雨与实测降雨间的多维联合分布模型,推求以模式降雨为条件的实测降雨的条件分布函数,并据此对多模式降雨进行综合,以提高其模拟与预估精度.以梧州站以上流域1961-2005年面雨量为例开展了示例研究.首先利用泰勒图从12个GCM模式中优选了6个综合模拟能力较好的模式,随后采用C藤和D藤Copula分别建立了实测降雨与6个模式模拟降雨间的联合分布,并基于AIC、BIC和对数似然值指标,优选出C藤Copula作为多模式降雨的综合模型.结果表明,使用C藤Copula方法得到的多模式综合降雨,其精度高于任一单模式,亦优于多模式的集合平均值. |
| Author | 罗序义 刘杨 胡义明 梁忠民 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 |
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| Author_FL | LIU Yang LIANG Zhong-min HU Yi-ming LUO Xu-yi |
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| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: 胡义明 – sequence: 2 fullname: 罗序义 – sequence: 3 fullname: 梁忠民 – sequence: 4 fullname: 刘杨 |
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| Snippet | P456.7; CMIP5中不同GCM模式对降雨的模拟能力不同,且存在较大不确定性.本文采用藤Copula技术构建不同GCM模式降雨与实测降雨间的多维联合分布模型,推求以模式降雨为条件的... |
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| Title | 基于藤Copula多维联合分布的CMIP5多模式降雨综合方法研究 |
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