装备剩余寿命预测平行仿真中模型动态演化方法

TP391.9; 装备平行仿真中的一个重要概念是实时数据驱动的模型动态演化,但是至今仍缺乏具体应用领域的实现方法.以带未知离散冲击的混合退化装备剩余寿命预测为背景,以多态Wiener状态空间模型为演化对象,提出一种装备平行仿真中模型动态演化方法,包括基于交互多模型强跟踪滤波的模型软切换和基于期望最大化算法的模型参数在线估计,并实现了基于平行仿真的装备剩余寿命实时预测.利用某轴承退化数据进行实例研究,结果表明该方法能有效提高仿真逼真度,剩余寿命预测的准确度较高、不确定性较小,具有较高工程应用价值....

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Published in国防科技大学学报 Vol. 41; no. 5; pp. 118 - 127
Main Authors 葛承垄, 朱元昌, 邸彦强, 崔浩浩
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 陆军工程大学石家庄校区,河北石家庄,050003 28.10.2019
Subjects
模型演化
平行仿真
交互多模型
期望最大化
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1001-2486
DOI10.11887/j.cn.201905017

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Abstract TP391.9; 装备平行仿真中的一个重要概念是实时数据驱动的模型动态演化,但是至今仍缺乏具体应用领域的实现方法.以带未知离散冲击的混合退化装备剩余寿命预测为背景,以多态Wiener状态空间模型为演化对象,提出一种装备平行仿真中模型动态演化方法,包括基于交互多模型强跟踪滤波的模型软切换和基于期望最大化算法的模型参数在线估计,并实现了基于平行仿真的装备剩余寿命实时预测.利用某轴承退化数据进行实例研究,结果表明该方法能有效提高仿真逼真度,剩余寿命预测的准确度较高、不确定性较小,具有较高工程应用价值.
AbstractList TP391.9; 装备平行仿真中的一个重要概念是实时数据驱动的模型动态演化,但是至今仍缺乏具体应用领域的实现方法.以带未知离散冲击的混合退化装备剩余寿命预测为背景,以多态Wiener状态空间模型为演化对象,提出一种装备平行仿真中模型动态演化方法,包括基于交互多模型强跟踪滤波的模型软切换和基于期望最大化算法的模型参数在线估计,并实现了基于平行仿真的装备剩余寿命实时预测.利用某轴承退化数据进行实例研究,结果表明该方法能有效提高仿真逼真度,剩余寿命预测的准确度较高、不确定性较小,具有较高工程应用价值.
Author 葛承垄
朱元昌
邸彦强
崔浩浩
AuthorAffiliation 陆军工程大学石家庄校区,河北石家庄,050003
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DI Yanqiang
ZHU Yuanchang
CUI Haohao
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平行仿真
交互多模型
期望最大化
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Snippet TP391.9; 装备平行仿真中的一个重要概念是实时数据驱动的模型动态演化,但是至今仍缺乏具体应用领域的实现方法.以带未知离散冲击的混合退化装备剩余寿命预测为背景,以多...
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Title 装备剩余寿命预测平行仿真中模型动态演化方法
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