CMA-MESO关键技术集成及应用

基于GRAPES-MESO 10 km系统,提高模式动力框架计算精度和稳定性,选择调试适合高分辨率模式的物理过程参数化方案组合,建立面向数值天气预报的全国雷达质量控制拼图系统,通过云分析系统融合全国三维组网反射率因子拼图,建立面向中小尺度系统的对流可分辨同化系统和陆面资料同化系统,实现雷达径向风、风廓线雷达、FY-4A成像仪辐射率、卫星云导风、卫星GNSSRO、地面降水观测以及近地面资料等非常规局地稠密资料的同化应用,发展快速循环技术,建立全国3 km间隔3 h的快速循环同化预报系统——CMA-MESO(GRAPES-MESO 3 km)并实现业务化运行.2020年6-9月汛期业务检验结果表明...

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Published in应用气象学报 Vol. 33; no. 6; pp. 641 - 654
Main Authors 黄丽萍, 邓莲堂, 王瑞春, 庄照荣, 江源, 徐枝芳, 朱立娟, 张进, 王莉莉, 于翡, 孙琴, 王丹, 王皓, 周非非, 徐国强
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081 01.11.2022
Subjects
高分辨率模式
CMA-MESO
局地稠密资料应用
公里尺度变分框架
快速循环同化系统
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1001-7313
DOI10.11898/1001-7313.20220601

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Abstract 基于GRAPES-MESO 10 km系统,提高模式动力框架计算精度和稳定性,选择调试适合高分辨率模式的物理过程参数化方案组合,建立面向数值天气预报的全国雷达质量控制拼图系统,通过云分析系统融合全国三维组网反射率因子拼图,建立面向中小尺度系统的对流可分辨同化系统和陆面资料同化系统,实现雷达径向风、风廓线雷达、FY-4A成像仪辐射率、卫星云导风、卫星GNSSRO、地面降水观测以及近地面资料等非常规局地稠密资料的同化应用,发展快速循环技术,建立全国3 km间隔3 h的快速循环同化预报系统——CMA-MESO(GRAPES-MESO 3 km)并实现业务化运行.2020年6-9月汛期业务检验结果表明:CMA-MESO预报的近地面要素(降水、2 m温度、10 m风场)检验评分全面超越GRAPES-MESO 10 km结果;CMA-MESO的24 h累积降水TS评分略低于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的结果,但逐3 h累积降水预报TS评分尤其是对于较大降水阈值评分明显优于EC-MWF结果;同时,对于能够表征模式对降水时空精细化特征预报能力的降水频次和降水强度等检验,CMA-MESO对我国汛期的预报准确率超过了 ECMWF细网格模式结果.
AbstractList 基于GRAPES-MESO 10 km系统,提高模式动力框架计算精度和稳定性,选择调试适合高分辨率模式的物理过程参数化方案组合,建立面向数值天气预报的全国雷达质量控制拼图系统,通过云分析系统融合全国三维组网反射率因子拼图,建立面向中小尺度系统的对流可分辨同化系统和陆面资料同化系统,实现雷达径向风、风廓线雷达、FY-4A成像仪辐射率、卫星云导风、卫星GNSSRO、地面降水观测以及近地面资料等非常规局地稠密资料的同化应用,发展快速循环技术,建立全国3 km间隔3 h的快速循环同化预报系统——CMA-MESO(GRAPES-MESO 3 km)并实现业务化运行.2020年6-9月汛期业务检验结果表明:CMA-MESO预报的近地面要素(降水、2 m温度、10 m风场)检验评分全面超越GRAPES-MESO 10 km结果;CMA-MESO的24 h累积降水TS评分略低于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的结果,但逐3 h累积降水预报TS评分尤其是对于较大降水阈值评分明显优于EC-MWF结果;同时,对于能够表征模式对降水时空精细化特征预报能力的降水频次和降水强度等检验,CMA-MESO对我国汛期的预报准确率超过了 ECMWF细网格模式结果.
Author 王丹
王皓
周非非
黄丽萍
王莉莉
邓莲堂
孙琴
庄照荣
王瑞春
徐枝芳
朱立娟
张进
于翡
江源
徐国强
AuthorAffiliation 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081
Author_FL Zhou Feifei
Deng Liantang
Huang Liping
Wang Dan
Wang Ruichun
Xu Zhifang
Zhuang Zhaorong
Sun Qin
Wang Hao
Zhang Jin
Jiang Yuan
Zhu Lijuan
Xu Guoqiang
Yu Fei
Wang Lili
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Keywords 高分辨率模式
CMA-MESO
局地稠密资料应用
公里尺度变分框架
快速循环同化系统
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Snippet 基于GRAPES-MESO 10 km系统,提高模式动力框架计算精度和稳定性,选择调试适合高分辨率模式的物理过程参数化方案组合,建立面向数值天气预报的全国雷达质量控制拼图系统,通过...
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