黄河口大闸蟹高温天气指数保险产品设计与研发
利用 1981-2021 年东营国家气象观测站逐日气温观测数据、2019-2021 年黄河口农业水域小气候观测站逐日气温和水温观测数据以及 2004-2021 年东营市黄河口大闸蟹产量数据,采用滑动平均法分离气象产量后计算气象减产率,分析大闸蟹生长周期内温度和减产率的关系,筛选极显著相关的高温天气指标,构建高温指数-灾损模型,确定灾害损失阈值,设计研发黄河口大闸蟹高温天气指数保险产品.结果表明:随着生产技术的提高,黄河口大闸蟹增产明显;受不同年份气象条件差异影响,黄河口大闸蟹气象减产率波动明显,减产率与≥35℃有效积温日均值呈极显著正相关(P＜0.01).结合 1981-2021 年高温气象资...
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| Published in | 中国农业气象 Vol. 45; no. 5; pp. 537 - 548 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,济南 250031
20.05.2024
山东省东营市气象局,东营 257000%山东省东营市海洋发展和渔业局,东营 257000%武汉区域气候中心,武汉 430074%山东省东营市惠泽农业科技有限公司,东营 257000%中国人民保险有限公司,东营 257000%山东省河口区气象局,河口 257200%山东省东营市气象局,东营 257000%中华财险有限公司,东营 257000 |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1000-6362 |
| DOI | 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2024.05.009 |
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| Abstract | 利用 1981-2021 年东营国家气象观测站逐日气温观测数据、2019-2021 年黄河口农业水域小气候观测站逐日气温和水温观测数据以及 2004-2021 年东营市黄河口大闸蟹产量数据,采用滑动平均法分离气象产量后计算气象减产率,分析大闸蟹生长周期内温度和减产率的关系,筛选极显著相关的高温天气指标,构建高温指数-灾损模型,确定灾害损失阈值,设计研发黄河口大闸蟹高温天气指数保险产品.结果表明:随着生产技术的提高,黄河口大闸蟹增产明显;受不同年份气象条件差异影响,黄河口大闸蟹气象减产率波动明显,减产率与≥35℃有效积温日均值呈极显著正相关(P＜0.01).结合 1981-2021 年高温气象资料,确定≥35℃的有效积温日均值即高温指数达 1.893℃·d,可导致大闸蟹减产 12.4%;依高温指数-灾损模型可进一步将黄河口大闸蟹高温灾害分为轻度、较轻、中度、较重和重度五级,并取高温指数≥1.529℃·d作为理赔触发值计算可发生赔付年份的平均赔付金额为 294.04 元·667m-2,赔付金额范围为 58.59～651.00 元·667m-2;黄河口大闸蟹高温天气指数纯保险费率为 6.61%,保费为43.03 元·667m-2. |
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| AbstractList | 利用 1981-2021 年东营国家气象观测站逐日气温观测数据、2019-2021 年黄河口农业水域小气候观测站逐日气温和水温观测数据以及 2004-2021 年东营市黄河口大闸蟹产量数据,采用滑动平均法分离气象产量后计算气象减产率,分析大闸蟹生长周期内温度和减产率的关系,筛选极显著相关的高温天气指标,构建高温指数-灾损模型,确定灾害损失阈值,设计研发黄河口大闸蟹高温天气指数保险产品.结果表明:随着生产技术的提高,黄河口大闸蟹增产明显;受不同年份气象条件差异影响,黄河口大闸蟹气象减产率波动明显,减产率与≥35℃有效积温日均值呈极显著正相关(P＜0.01).结合 1981-2021 年高温气象资料,确定≥35℃的有效积温日均值即高温指数达 1.893℃·d,可导致大闸蟹减产 12.4%;依高温指数-灾损模型可进一步将黄河口大闸蟹高温灾害分为轻度、较轻、中度、较重和重度五级,并取高温指数≥1.529℃·d作为理赔触发值计算可发生赔付年份的平均赔付金额为 294.04 元·667m-2,赔付金额范围为 58.59～651.00 元·667m-2;黄河口大闸蟹高温天气指数纯保险费率为 6.61%,保费为43.03 元·667m-2. |
| Abstract_FL | Using the daily temperature data from the Dongying national meteorological observatory from 1981-2021,the daily temperature and water temperature data of the agricultural waters of the Yellow River Estuary from 2019-2021,and the hairy crab yield data of the Yellow River Estuary in Dongying from 2004-2021,the meteorological yield reduction rate was calculated after the meteorological yield was separated by moving-average model,and the relationship between temperature factors and yield reduction rate during the growth cycle of hairy crabs was analyzed by correlation analysis,the high temperature index(HTI)was selected as the key factor,and the HTI-damage model was constructed by stepwise regression method,then the damage threshold and compensation rate were determined,and the high temperature index insurance product of hairy crab in the Yellow River Estuary was designed.With the improvement of production technology in recent years,the yield of hairy crabs increased in most years,but the yield reduction rate fluctuated obviously under the influence of meteorological conditions in different years,for example,in 2008 and 2019,high temperatures and typhoons and torrential rains caused a relative increase in yield loss,and the growth and development of hairy crabs were closely related to temperature,the daily mean effective accumulated temperature above 35℃was significantly correlated with the yield reduction rate,which passed the 0.01 level test,the daily mean of effective accumulated temperature above 35℃,that is,the maximum of high temperature index reached 1.893℃·d,and the maximum of high temperature lead a 12.4%reduction of hairy crab yield.According to the calculation value of high temperature index-damage model,the high temperature disaster of hairy crab was further divided into five grades:mild,relatively mild,moderate,relatively severe and severe.Taking the HTI≥1.529℃·d as the trigger value of claims,the average amount of claims payable in the years when claims can occur is 294.04 yuan·667m-2,and the amount of claims ranges from 58.59 to 651.00 yuan·667m-2.The Yellow Estuary hairy crab high temperature weather index pure insurance rate was 6.61%,and the premium was 43.03 yuan·667m-2. |
| Author | 赵金山 李强 刘可群 于贞贞 魏胜玮 徐涛泉 信志红 邓爱娟 庞金增 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,济南 250031;山东省东营市气象局,东营 257000%山东省东营市海洋发展和渔业局,东营 257000%武汉区域气候中心,武汉 430074%山东省东营市惠泽农业科技有限公司,东营 257000%中国人民保险有限公司,东营 257000%山东省河口区气象局,河口 257200%山东省东营市气象局,东营 257000%中华财险有限公司,东营 257000 |
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| Author_FL | LIU Ke-qun DENG Ai-juan WEI Sheng-wei XU Tao-quan XIN Zhi-hong PANG Jin-zeng ZHAO Jin-shan LI Qiang YU Zhen-zhen |
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| Keywords | 天气保险 High temperature index Yellow River estuary Weather insurance 黄河口 高温指数 大闸蟹 Hairy crabs |
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| Publisher | 山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,济南 250031 山东省东营市气象局,东营 257000%山东省东营市海洋发展和渔业局,东营 257000%武汉区域气候中心,武汉 430074%山东省东营市惠泽农业科技有限公司,东营 257000%中国人民保险有限公司,东营 257000%山东省河口区气象局,河口 257200%山东省东营市气象局,东营 257000%中华财险有限公司,东营 257000 |
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| Snippet | 利用 1981-2021 年东营国家气象观测站逐日气温观测数据、2019-2021 年黄河口农业水域小气候观测站逐日气温和水温观测数据以及 2004-2021 年东营市黄河口大闸蟹产量数据,采... |
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| Title | 黄河口大闸蟹高温天气指数保险产品设计与研发 |
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