耕地"三位一体"保护视角下中国省域休耕规模与空间布局
F301.2; 实施土地休耕是落实"藏粮于地"战略的关键,目前宏观尺度的全国休耕空间布局尚未确定,该研究探究了粮食安全约束下的全国范围内最大休耕规模以及中国省域休耕空间优化布局.以耕地数量、质量和生态"三位一体"保护为研究视角,该研究通过系统动力学、灰色预测模型等方法构建最大休耕规模预测模型,并结合"压力-状态-响应"模型构建休耕迫切度评价体系,依据评价结果分配各省休耕规模,从而得到中国省域休耕空间布局.结果表明:1)预计在90％、95％、100％的粮食自给率下,到2030年中国最大休耕规模分别为3 237.310万、2678.970...
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| Published in | 农业工程学报 Vol. 40; no. 18; pp. 240 - 250 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
浙江大学公共管理学院土地管理系,杭州 310058
01.09.2024
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1002-6819 |
| DOI | 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202405110 |
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| Abstract | F301.2; 实施土地休耕是落实"藏粮于地"战略的关键,目前宏观尺度的全国休耕空间布局尚未确定,该研究探究了粮食安全约束下的全国范围内最大休耕规模以及中国省域休耕空间优化布局.以耕地数量、质量和生态"三位一体"保护为研究视角,该研究通过系统动力学、灰色预测模型等方法构建最大休耕规模预测模型,并结合"压力-状态-响应"模型构建休耕迫切度评价体系,依据评价结果分配各省休耕规模,从而得到中国省域休耕空间布局.结果表明:1)预计在90％、95％、100％的粮食自给率下,到2030年中国最大休耕规模分别为3 237.310万、2678.970万和2 120.640万hm2;2)省域之间的休耕迫切度水平存在差异,上海、内蒙古等地休耕迫切度较高,四川、广西等地休耕迫切度较低;3)在耕地三位一体保护的约束条件下,地区之间休耕规模差异较大,内蒙古、甘肃等地休耕规模较大,北京、上海等地休耕规模较小.该研究将数量、质量和生态多元目标融合进休耕空间分区研究,能够为未来休耕制度的全面建立以及精准落地提供思路与方法参考. |
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| AbstractList | F301.2; 实施土地休耕是落实"藏粮于地"战略的关键,目前宏观尺度的全国休耕空间布局尚未确定,该研究探究了粮食安全约束下的全国范围内最大休耕规模以及中国省域休耕空间优化布局.以耕地数量、质量和生态"三位一体"保护为研究视角,该研究通过系统动力学、灰色预测模型等方法构建最大休耕规模预测模型,并结合"压力-状态-响应"模型构建休耕迫切度评价体系,依据评价结果分配各省休耕规模,从而得到中国省域休耕空间布局.结果表明:1)预计在90％、95％、100％的粮食自给率下,到2030年中国最大休耕规模分别为3 237.310万、2678.970万和2 120.640万hm2;2)省域之间的休耕迫切度水平存在差异,上海、内蒙古等地休耕迫切度较高,四川、广西等地休耕迫切度较低;3)在耕地三位一体保护的约束条件下,地区之间休耕规模差异较大,内蒙古、甘肃等地休耕规模较大,北京、上海等地休耕规模较小.该研究将数量、质量和生态多元目标融合进休耕空间分区研究,能够为未来休耕制度的全面建立以及精准落地提供思路与方法参考. |
| Abstract_FL | Fallow land can often be implemented under the pattern of cultivated land protection on quantity,quality,and ecology in the strategy of"Storing Grain in Land"in China.The spatial arrangement of fallow land is closely linked to the fallow land implementation and the nationwide allocation of arable land resources.However,the current macro research has hindered to determine the optimal spatial layout of fallow land nationwide in sustainable agriculture at present.The purpose of this study is to explore the maximum scale and spatial layout of provincial fallow in China under the constraint of food security.The primary research subjects were selected as the provinces of China that were excluded from Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan.The data was derived from the publicly accessible statistical yearbooks from 2000-2019.Firstly,a numerical model was developed to calculate the fallow land scale under food security guidelines,according to the arable land retention.System dynamics,grey model,time series analysis,and exponential decay model were utilized to scientifically predict the fallow scale in China in the future.Secondly,an evaluation system was established for the urgency of fallowing arable land in Chinese provinces using the Pressure-State-Response(PSR)model,according to the land quality and ecological security.The evaluation index system was comprised of 17 specific indicators.Finally,the fallow scale of each province was allocated to determine the different fallow zones after evaluation.Therefore,a provincial space layout of fallow was established using the"Trinity"protection of quantity,quality,and ecology.The results show that:(1)The maximum fallow scale was expected to be 3 237.310× 104,2 678.970×104,and 2 120.640×104 hectares by 2030 under 90％,95％,and 100％grain self-sufficiency rates,respectively.At the same time,it was particularly crucial to reasonably and scientifically calculate the fallow land scale.A comprehensive fallow land system was established to promote nationwide;(2)Provincial urgency assessments show that Shanghai and Inner Mongolia were ranked the highest in the urgency for the fallow land,while Sichuan and Guangxi were ranked the lowest.Strategic allocation of fallow land was prioritized for the regions with the higher levels of urgency;(3)The scale and urgency were combined to assess the fallow land.The maximum scale of fallow land was calculated to be 15.55036 million hectares in 2019,while it was projected to be 20.87778 million hectares by 2030.The areas of each province were categorized into five levels of fallow land.There were significant regional differences in the fallow land scale.Inner Mongolia and Gansu shared the larger scales,compared with Beijing and Shanghai with the smaller ones.This finding can provide the theoretical references and technical support to establish the differentiated fallow system.Some ideas can also be offered to fully establish and effectively implement the fallow system in the future,thus integrating quantitative,qualitative,and ecological multiple objectives into the spatial zoning of fallow land. |
| Author | 陈航 孟菲 熊雯颖 谭永忠 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 浙江大学公共管理学院土地管理系,杭州 310058 |
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| Author_FL | MENG Fei XIONG Wenying CHEN Hang TAN Yongzhong |
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| Copyright | Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
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| DOI | 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202405110 |
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| DocumentTitle_FL | Provincial fallow scale and fallow spatial layout of cultivated land in China from the"Trinity"protection perspective |
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| Keywords | system dynamics PSR模型 休耕规模 休耕空间布局 fallow spatial layout 耕地保护 PSR model cultivated land protection fallow scale 系统动力学 |
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