新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下世界玉米海运格局变化研究

采用 2019,2021和 2022年的国际玉米贸易数据,通过矩阵构建和算法设计进行数据映射,探究新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下全球玉米海运格局的变化,得到以下结果.1)泛地中海、西北太平洋近岸海域和加勒比海海域是世界玉米航运的 3个核心.2)疫情和俄乌冲突对世界玉米航运结构的影响有限,局域变动大于整体变动,冲突对世界玉米航运格局的影响集中在泛地中海地区.玉米航运格局演化量变仍在持续积累.3)疫情和俄乌冲突都对航道玉米运量和运价产生双重效应,俄乌冲突干扰了疫情缓和后世界玉米航运的反弹.考虑到全球航运玉米单价上涨,黑海相关航道经济价值下降明显,南美经好望角至东亚、东南亚的大洋航道等经济价值增长态势良好...

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Published in北京大学学报（自然科学版） Vol. 60; no. 6; pp. 1094 - 1106
Main Authors 赵鹏军, 尹昭有, 张梦竹, 牛樱楠, 何张源
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871 20.11.2024
北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,深圳 518055%北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871%北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,深圳 518055
Subjects
新冠疫情
COVID-19 pandemic
俄乌冲突
玉米海运
粮食安全
corn shipping
food security
Russia-Ukraine conflict
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0479-8023
DOI10.13209/j.0479-8023.2024.023

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Abstract 采用 2019,2021和 2022年的国际玉米贸易数据,通过矩阵构建和算法设计进行数据映射,探究新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下全球玉米海运格局的变化,得到以下结果.1)泛地中海、西北太平洋近岸海域和加勒比海海域是世界玉米航运的 3个核心.2)疫情和俄乌冲突对世界玉米航运结构的影响有限,局域变动大于整体变动,冲突对世界玉米航运格局的影响集中在泛地中海地区.玉米航运格局演化量变仍在持续积累.3)疫情和俄乌冲突都对航道玉米运量和运价产生双重效应,俄乌冲突干扰了疫情缓和后世界玉米航运的反弹.考虑到全球航运玉米单价上涨,黑海相关航道经济价值下降明显,南美经好望角至东亚、东南亚的大洋航道等经济价值增长态势良好.4)泛地中海海域航道具有高度的综合价值;虽然非洲大陆西侧岸线等航道的经济价值较低,但具有较高的国际服务价值.
AbstractList 采用 2019,2021和 2022年的国际玉米贸易数据,通过矩阵构建和算法设计进行数据映射,探究新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下全球玉米海运格局的变化,得到以下结果.1)泛地中海、西北太平洋近岸海域和加勒比海海域是世界玉米航运的 3个核心.2)疫情和俄乌冲突对世界玉米航运结构的影响有限,局域变动大于整体变动,冲突对世界玉米航运格局的影响集中在泛地中海地区.玉米航运格局演化量变仍在持续积累.3)疫情和俄乌冲突都对航道玉米运量和运价产生双重效应,俄乌冲突干扰了疫情缓和后世界玉米航运的反弹.考虑到全球航运玉米单价上涨,黑海相关航道经济价值下降明显,南美经好望角至东亚、东南亚的大洋航道等经济价值增长态势良好.4)泛地中海海域航道具有高度的综合价值;虽然非洲大陆西侧岸线等航道的经济价值较低,但具有较高的国际服务价值.
Abstract_FL Using international corn trade data in 2019,2021,and 2022,through matrix construction and algorithm design for data mapping,this paper explores the changes of the global corn shipping pattern under the background of COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine Conflict.It is found that the Pan-Mediterranean Sea,the northwest Pacific coast area and the Caribbean Sea are the three cores of the world's corn shipping.The epidemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have a limited impact on the world corn shipping structure,and local changes are greater than the overall changes.The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the world corn shipping pattern is concentrated in the Pan-Mediterranean region.The quantitative changes in the evolution of corn shipping pattern are still accumulating.Both the epidemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have a dual effect in the volume of corn and freight rates.The Russia-Ukraine conflict interfers with the rebound of corn shipping in the world's waterways after the easing of the epidemic.Considering the rising unit price of global shipping corn,the economic value of the Black Sea-related waterway has decreased significantly,and the economic value of waterway from South America around the Cape of Good Hope to East Asia and Southeast Asia shows a positive growth trend.The Pan-Mediterranean waterway is of highly comprehensive value.The western coastline of the African continent has low economic value but high international service value.
Author 牛樱楠
何张源
张梦竹
尹昭有
赵鹏军
AuthorAffiliation 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871;北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,深圳 518055%北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871%北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,深圳 518055
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Author_FL NIU Yingnan
ZHANG Mengzhu
ZHAO Pengjun
HE Zhangyuan
YIN Zhaoyou
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DocumentTitle_FL Changes in World Corn Shipping Pattern under the Background of COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine Conflict
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Keywords 新冠疫情
COVID-19 pandemic
俄乌冲突
玉米海运
粮食安全
corn shipping
food security
Russia-Ukraine conflict
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北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,深圳 518055%北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871%北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,深圳 518055
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Snippet 采用 2019,2021和 2022年的国际玉米贸易数据,通过矩阵构建和算法设计进行数据映射,探究新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下全球玉米海运格局的变化,得到以下结果.1)泛地中海、西北太...
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Title 新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下世界玉米海运格局变化研究
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