基于ANUSPLIN的黄山毛峰茶叶霜冻害天气指数保险纯费率厘定
基于历史灾情数据细化修订黄山市茶叶霜冻害气象指标,应用ANUSPLIN插值软件,建立基于地形的黄山市茶叶霜冻害指标模型;基于历史气象观测数据,借助地理信息系统,开展黄山市精细化茶叶霜冻害风险评估;以黄山毛峰茶叶为研究对象,综合考虑霜冻害风险评估结果和茶叶经济产出,确定茶叶霜冻害保险区域和可保时段,计算不同时段不同海拔黄山毛峰茶的霜冻害天气指数保险纯费率.结果表明:黄山市茶叶霜冻害辨识阈值为极端最低气温(Td)3℃,按间隔1℃划分为2℃<Td≤3℃、1℃<Td≤2℃、0<Td≤1℃、?1℃<Td≤0、?2℃<Td≤?1℃、?3℃<Td≤?2℃和Td≤?3℃共7...
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| Published in | 中国农业气象 Vol. 46; no. 1; pp. 122 - 132 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
寿县国家气候观象台,寿县 232200%六安市气象局,六安 237008%国元农业保险股份有限公司,合肥 230031%黄山市气象局,黄山 245011
20.01.2025
安徽省农业气象中心/大气科学与卫星遥感安徽省重点实验室,合肥 230031 |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1000-6362 |
| DOI | 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2025.01.012 |
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| Abstract | 基于历史灾情数据细化修订黄山市茶叶霜冻害气象指标,应用ANUSPLIN插值软件,建立基于地形的黄山市茶叶霜冻害指标模型;基于历史气象观测数据,借助地理信息系统,开展黄山市精细化茶叶霜冻害风险评估;以黄山毛峰茶叶为研究对象,综合考虑霜冻害风险评估结果和茶叶经济产出,确定茶叶霜冻害保险区域和可保时段,计算不同时段不同海拔黄山毛峰茶的霜冻害天气指数保险纯费率.结果表明:黄山市茶叶霜冻害辨识阈值为极端最低气温(Td)3℃,按间隔1℃划分为2℃<Td≤3℃、1℃<Td≤2℃、0<Td≤1℃、?1℃<Td≤0、?2℃<Td≤?1℃、?3℃<Td≤?2℃和Td≤?3℃共7个霜冻灾害等级,对应茶芽平均损失率分别为5％、15％、25％、35％、50％、70％和90％.黄山市茶叶霜冻害风险地域特征明显,海拔越高霜冻害风险越高,随时间推移,灾害风险表现为波动降低趋势.黄山毛峰茶叶霜冻害天气指数保险区域为海拔400?1000m,可保时段为3月16日?4月15日,极端最低气温达2℃触发赔付.可保时段海拔400?500m、500?600m、600?700m、700?800m、800?900m和900?1000m保险区域内黄山毛峰茶叶霜冻害天气指数保险纯费率分别为1.4％、1.9％、2.7％、3.7％、4.9％和6.4％.3月16日?3月30日、3月21日?4月4日、3月26日?4月9日和3月31日?4月15日4个保险时段保险纯费率分别为1.2％～5.0％、0.9％～3.8％、0.6％～2.2％和0.3％～1.5％.黄山毛峰茶叶霜冻害天气指数保险纯费率随海拔升高呈增加趋势,随时间推迟呈下降趋势. |
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| AbstractList | 基于历史灾情数据细化修订黄山市茶叶霜冻害气象指标,应用ANUSPLIN插值软件,建立基于地形的黄山市茶叶霜冻害指标模型;基于历史气象观测数据,借助地理信息系统,开展黄山市精细化茶叶霜冻害风险评估;以黄山毛峰茶叶为研究对象,综合考虑霜冻害风险评估结果和茶叶经济产出,确定茶叶霜冻害保险区域和可保时段,计算不同时段不同海拔黄山毛峰茶的霜冻害天气指数保险纯费率.结果表明:黄山市茶叶霜冻害辨识阈值为极端最低气温(Td)3℃,按间隔1℃划分为2℃<Td≤3℃、1℃<Td≤2℃、0<Td≤1℃、?1℃<Td≤0、?2℃<Td≤?1℃、?3℃<Td≤?2℃和Td≤?3℃共7个霜冻灾害等级,对应茶芽平均损失率分别为5％、15％、25％、35％、50％、70％和90％.黄山市茶叶霜冻害风险地域特征明显,海拔越高霜冻害风险越高,随时间推移,灾害风险表现为波动降低趋势.黄山毛峰茶叶霜冻害天气指数保险区域为海拔400?1000m,可保时段为3月16日?4月15日,极端最低气温达2℃触发赔付.可保时段海拔400?500m、500?600m、600?700m、700?800m、800?900m和900?1000m保险区域内黄山毛峰茶叶霜冻害天气指数保险纯费率分别为1.4％、1.9％、2.7％、3.7％、4.9％和6.4％.3月16日?3月30日、3月21日?4月4日、3月26日?4月9日和3月31日?4月15日4个保险时段保险纯费率分别为1.2％～5.0％、0.9％～3.8％、0.6％～2.2％和0.3％～1.5％.黄山毛峰茶叶霜冻害天气指数保险纯费率随海拔升高呈增加趋势,随时间推迟呈下降趋势. |
| Abstract_FL | In order to improve the rationale for determining the premium rate for weather index insurance for tea frost damage in Anhui province. In this paper,authors refined and revised the meteorological index for tea frost damage in Huangshan based on historical disaster data. The ANUSPLIN interpolation software was used to establish the spatial interpolation model of the meteorological indices. Based on historical meteorological data from Huangshan,a refined risk assessment of tea frost damage in Huangshan was conducted with the help of a geographic information system. Taking Huangshan Maofeng tea as the research object,the risk assessment results and tea economic output were comprehensively considered to determine the insurance district and insurance period of tea frost damage,and the weather index trigger value and premium rate during some period were also designed considering daily tea frost risk and actual needs of agricultural insurance operation,and the insurance pure premium rates of tea frost damage at different periods and altitudes were calculated. The results showed as follows:the extreme minimum temperature (Td) 3℃ was used as the threshold value of tea frost damage index,according to the interval of 1℃,the tea frost damage index were divided into 2℃<Td≤3℃,1℃<Td≤2℃,0<Td≤1℃,?1℃<Td≤0,?2℃<Td≤?1℃,?3℃<Td≤?2℃ and Td≤?3℃ 7 disaster grades,the corresponding average loss rates of tea buds were 5％,15％,25％,35％,50％,70％ and 90％ respectively. The distribution of frost damage risk in Huangshan had an obvious regional characteristics,with higher the altitudes having a higher risk of frost damage,and the time series showing a decreasing trend with time. The insurance region of the weather index of tea frost damage of Huangshan Maofeng was 400?1000m above sea level,and the insurable period was from March 16 to April 15,when the extreme minimum temperature reached 2℃ to trigger the compensation. The insurance pure premium rates at 400?500m,500?600m,600?700m,700?800m,800?900m and 900?1000m above sea level were 1.4％,1.9％,2.7％,3.7％,4.9％ and 6.4％ respectively. The insurance pure premium rates for the four periods of coverage from March 16 to March 30,March 21 to April 4,March 26 to April 9,March 31 to April 15 were 1.2％?5.0％,0.9％?3.8％,0.6％?2.2％ and 0.3％?1.5％ respectively. The insurance-only premium rate for tea frost damage in Huangshan Maofeng shows an increasing trend with altitude and a decreasing trend with time delay. |
| Author | 王晓东 杨太明 刘瑞娜 张慧 赵兴宇 刘洪民 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 安徽省农业气象中心/大气科学与卫星遥感安徽省重点实验室,合肥 230031;寿县国家气候观象台,寿县 232200%六安市气象局,六安 237008%国元农业保险股份有限公司,合肥 230031%黄山市气象局,黄山 245011 |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 安徽省农业气象中心/大气科学与卫星遥感安徽省重点实验室,合肥 230031;寿县国家气候观象台,寿县 232200%六安市气象局,六安 237008%国元农业保险股份有限公司,合肥 230031%黄山市气象局,黄山 245011 |
| Author_FL | LIU Rui-na YANG Tai-ming ZHANG Hui WANG Xiao-dong ZHAO Xing-yu LIU Hong-min |
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| DocumentTitle_FL | Determination of Pure Premium Rates for Huangshan Maofeng Tea Frost Damage Based on ANUSPLIN |
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| Keywords | 茶叶 Pure premium rate Tea plant Frost damage 霜冻害 Risk degree 保险纯费率 Weather index 风险度 天气指数 |
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| Publisher | 寿县国家气候观象台,寿县 232200%六安市气象局,六安 237008%国元农业保险股份有限公司,合肥 230031%黄山市气象局,黄山 245011 安徽省农业气象中心/大气科学与卫星遥感安徽省重点实验室,合肥 230031 |
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