考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法
当前,配电网网架规划在提高电网可靠性和稳定性方面发挥了关键作用,但往往忽视了源荷出力的相关性,导致弃光率高、配电网网架投资大、线路利用率低等问题.为此,提出一种考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法.首先结合源荷历史数据,考虑光伏和负荷出力的时序自相关性,利用拉丁超立方采样和Cholesky分解法生成源、荷场景集,并计及源荷互相关性,设计源荷联合场景削减方法;其次考虑源荷出力不确定性,确定典型源荷联合场景及其概率;然后构建期望光伏消纳水平最大、期望年投资运行成本最小、线路过载概率期望值最小的配电网网架多目标优化规划模型,并考虑相关约束;采用改进NSGA-Ⅱ算法求解,生成配电网网架规划方案...
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| Published in | 浙江电力 Vol. 43; no. 10; pp. 65 - 74 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
国网天津市电力公司经济技术研究院,天津 300170%天津大学 智能电网教育部重点实验室,天津 300072
25.10.2024
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1007-1881 |
| DOI | 10.19585/j.zjdl.202410007 |
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| Abstract | 当前,配电网网架规划在提高电网可靠性和稳定性方面发挥了关键作用,但往往忽视了源荷出力的相关性,导致弃光率高、配电网网架投资大、线路利用率低等问题.为此,提出一种考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法.首先结合源荷历史数据,考虑光伏和负荷出力的时序自相关性,利用拉丁超立方采样和Cholesky分解法生成源、荷场景集,并计及源荷互相关性,设计源荷联合场景削减方法;其次考虑源荷出力不确定性,确定典型源荷联合场景及其概率;然后构建期望光伏消纳水平最大、期望年投资运行成本最小、线路过载概率期望值最小的配电网网架多目标优化规划模型,并考虑相关约束;采用改进NSGA-Ⅱ算法求解,生成配电网网架规划方案.最后,讨论帕累托前沿解之间的差异以及不同参数对规划结果的影响,为规划决策者提供备选方案. |
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| AbstractList | 当前,配电网网架规划在提高电网可靠性和稳定性方面发挥了关键作用,但往往忽视了源荷出力的相关性,导致弃光率高、配电网网架投资大、线路利用率低等问题.为此,提出一种考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法.首先结合源荷历史数据,考虑光伏和负荷出力的时序自相关性,利用拉丁超立方采样和Cholesky分解法生成源、荷场景集,并计及源荷互相关性,设计源荷联合场景削减方法;其次考虑源荷出力不确定性,确定典型源荷联合场景及其概率;然后构建期望光伏消纳水平最大、期望年投资运行成本最小、线路过载概率期望值最小的配电网网架多目标优化规划模型,并考虑相关约束;采用改进NSGA-Ⅱ算法求解,生成配电网网架规划方案.最后,讨论帕累托前沿解之间的差异以及不同参数对规划结果的影响,为规划决策者提供备选方案. |
| Abstract_FL | At present,distribution network framework planning plays a critical role in enhancing grid reliability and stability.However,the correlation between source and load outputs is often neglected,leading to a high rate of solar power curtailment,significant investment in the distribution network framework,and low line utilization rates.To address these issues,this paper proposes a framework planning method for distribution networks that considers the correlation and uncertainty of source and load output.Firstly,historical data on source and load is analyzed,ac-counting for the temporal autocorrelation of photovoltaic(PV)and load outputs.Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)and Cholesky decomposition are employed to generate source-load scenario sets.By incorporating their correlation,a load reduction method under these scenarios is designed accordingly.Secondly,the uncertainty in source and load outputs is considered to determine typical source-load scenarios and their probabilities.A multi-objective optimiza-tion planning model is developed for the distribution network.This model aims to maximize expected PV consump-tion,minimize the expected annual investment and operational costs,and minimize the expected value of line over-load probability,while considering relevant constraints.The improved NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm is used to solve this model and generate a distribution network framework planning scheme.Finally,the differences among Pareto frontier solu-tions and the impact of various parameters on the planning results are discussed,providing planners with alternative options for decision-making. |
| Author | 闫大威 靳小龙 罗涛 张章 赵高帅 董晓红 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 国网天津市电力公司经济技术研究院,天津 300170%天津大学 智能电网教育部重点实验室,天津 300072 |
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| Author_FL | YAN Dawei ZHAO Gaoshuai DONG Xiaohong JIN Xiaolong ZHANG Zhang LUO Tao |
| Author_FL_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: ZHAO Gaoshuai – sequence: 2 fullname: LUO Tao – sequence: 3 fullname: YAN Dawei – sequence: 4 fullname: ZHANG Zhang – sequence: 5 fullname: DONG Xiaohong – sequence: 6 fullname: JIN Xiaolong |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: 赵高帅 – sequence: 2 fullname: 罗涛 – sequence: 3 fullname: 闫大威 – sequence: 4 fullname: 张章 – sequence: 5 fullname: 董晓红 – sequence: 6 fullname: 靳小龙 |
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| DOI | 10.19585/j.zjdl.202410007 |
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| Keywords | source-load uncertainty line overload probability 线路过载概率 光伏消纳水平 网架规划 source-load integrated scenario network framework planning distribution network 源荷不确定性 配电网 PV power consumption level 源荷联合场景 |
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| Publisher | 国网天津市电力公司经济技术研究院,天津 300170%天津大学 智能电网教育部重点实验室,天津 300072 |
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| Title | 考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法 |
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