分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警方法

大范围极端天气影响下的分布式光伏波动事件对电力系统功率平衡问题影响显著,可能引起弃光、切负荷等风险事故.为此,提出了基于区间分析理论的分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警方法,以针对分布式光伏波动事件可能的危害程度进行滚动预警.首先,明晰电力系统应对分布式光伏波动的功率调控机理,并制定预警等级,确定不同功率控制手段能够应对的分布式光伏波动幅度区间,即不同预警等级对应的预警界限;然后,依据分布式光伏波动的概率密度,通过对各预警区间内的概率密度积分,计算各预警等级的概率;最后,分析不同时间尺度下光伏波动预测精度的差异水平,通过定时滚动预警校正结果,实现分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警.算例结果表明...

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Published in	中国电力 Vol. 57; no. 8; pp. 96 - 107
Main Authors	周才期, 刘静利, 孙鹏凯, 张玉敏
Format	Magazine Article
Language	Chinese
Published	国家电力调度控制中心,北京 100031%国网潍坊供电公司,山东潍坊 261000%电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室(山东大学),山东济南 250061 28.08.2024
Subjects	分布式光伏波动 distributed photovoltaic fluctuation interval analysis probability density 区间分析概率密度 power balance rolling warning 功率平衡滚动预警
Online Access	Get full text
ISSN	1004-9649
DOI	10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202402058

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Abstract	大范围极端天气影响下的分布式光伏波动事件对电力系统功率平衡问题影响显著,可能引起弃光、切负荷等风险事故.为此,提出了基于区间分析理论的分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警方法,以针对分布式光伏波动事件可能的危害程度进行滚动预警.首先,明晰电力系统应对分布式光伏波动的功率调控机理,并制定预警等级,确定不同功率控制手段能够应对的分布式光伏波动幅度区间,即不同预警等级对应的预警界限;然后,依据分布式光伏波动的概率密度,通过对各预警区间内的概率密度积分,计算各预警等级的概率;最后,分析不同时间尺度下光伏波动预测精度的差异水平,通过定时滚动预警校正结果,实现分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警.算例结果表明,该方法能够在确定各预警区间界限的同时,决策电力系统在不同系统运行状态和光伏波动事件下的预警结果,且与蒙特卡洛法预警结果的均方根误差仅为1.6718%,进而验证了该方法的有效性和适用性.
AbstractList	大范围极端天气影响下的分布式光伏波动事件对电力系统功率平衡问题影响显著,可能引起弃光、切负荷等风险事故.为此,提出了基于区间分析理论的分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警方法,以针对分布式光伏波动事件可能的危害程度进行滚动预警.首先,明晰电力系统应对分布式光伏波动的功率调控机理,并制定预警等级,确定不同功率控制手段能够应对的分布式光伏波动幅度区间,即不同预警等级对应的预警界限;然后,依据分布式光伏波动的概率密度,通过对各预警区间内的概率密度积分,计算各预警等级的概率;最后,分析不同时间尺度下光伏波动预测精度的差异水平,通过定时滚动预警校正结果,实现分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警.算例结果表明,该方法能够在确定各预警区间界限的同时,决策电力系统在不同系统运行状态和光伏波动事件下的预警结果,且与蒙特卡洛法预警结果的均方根误差仅为1.6718%,进而验证了该方法的有效性和适用性.
Abstract_FL	Under the influence of large-area extreme weather conditions,the impact of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations on power system balance is significant and may lead to risks such as curtailment of solar power and load shedding.In response to these issues,this paper proposes a multi-level rolling warning method for distributed photovoltaic fluctuations based on interval analysis theory,aiming to provide a rolling warning of the potential harm of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations.Firstly,the power control mechanism for handling distributed photovoltaic fluctuations in the power system is clarified,and warning levels are established to determine the range of fluctuations that can be controlled by different power control measures,i.e.,the warning thresholds corresponding to different warning levels.Secondly,based on the probability density of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations,the probabilities of each warning level are calculated by integrating the probability densities within each warning range.Finally,the differences in forecasting accuracy of photovoltaic fluctuations at different time scales are analyzed,and the rolling warning of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations is achieved by periodically adjusting the warning results.Case study results demonstrate that the proposed method can determine the thresholds for each warning range while providing warning results for different system operating conditions and photovoltaic fluctuation events.Moreover,the root mean square error of the warning results obtained with our method compared to those of the Monte Carlo method is only 1.6718%,thus verifying the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method.
Author	周才期孙鹏凯张玉敏刘静利
AuthorAffiliation	国家电力调度控制中心,北京 100031%国网潍坊供电公司,山东潍坊 261000%电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室(山东大学),山东济南 250061
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Author_FL	LIU Jingli SUN Pengkai ZHOU Caiqi ZHANG Yumin
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