비선형 회귀분석을 이용한 Generic 데이터 기반의 누출빈도함수 추정

• Published in: 한국안전학회지 Vol. 35; no. 5; pp. 15 - 21
• Main Authors: 윤익근, 단승규, 정호진, 홍성경, Yoon, Ik Keun, Dan, Seung Kyu, Jung, Ho Jin, Hong, Seong Kyeong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 한국안전학회 01.10.2020
• Subjects: 안전공학; leak frequency function; non-linear regression; OGP report; quantitative risk assessment(QRA)
• ISSN: 1738-3803; 2383-9953
• DOI: 10.14346/JKOSOS.2020.35.5.15

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is used as a legal or voluntary safety management tool for the hazardous material industry and the utilization of the method is gradually increasing. Therefore, a leak frequency analysis based on reliable generic data is a critical element in the evolution of QRA and safety technologies. The aim of this paper is to derive the leak frequency function that can be applied more flexibly in QRA based on OGP report with high reliability and global utilization. For the purpose, we first reviewed the data on the 16 equipments included in the OGP report and selected the predictors. And then we found good equations to fit the OGP data using non-linear regression analysis. The various expectation functions were applied to search for suitable parameter to serve as a meaningful reference in the future. The results of this analysis show that the best fitting parameter is found in the form of DNV function and connection function in natural logarithm. In conclusion, the average percentage error between the fitted and the original value is very small as 3 %, so the derived prediction function can be applicable in the quantitative frequency analysis. This study is to contribute to expand the applicability of QRA and advance safety engineering as providing the generic equations for practical leak frequency analysis.