24-hour-ahead forecasting of energy production in solar PV systems

• Published in: 2011 11th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications pp. 1276 - 1281
• Main Authors: Cococcioni, M., D'Andrea, E., Lazzerini, B.
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 01.11.2011
• Subjects: Artificial neural networks; Forecasting; NARX; Neurons; Predictive models; Production; solar photovoltaic energy; time series; Time series analysis; Training
• ISSN: 2164-7143
• DOI: 10.1109/ISDA.2011.6121835

This paper presents a flexible approach to forecasting of energy production in solar photovoltaic (PV) installations, using time series analysis and neural networks. Our goal is to develop a one day-ahead forecasting model based on an artificial neural network with tapped delay lines. Despite some methods already exist for energy forecasting problems, the main novelty of our approach is the proposal of a tool for the technician of a PV installation to correctly configure the forecasting model according to the particular installation characteristics. The correct configuration takes into account the number of hidden neurons, the number of delay elements, and the training window width, i.e., the appropriate number of days, before the predicted day, employed for the training. The irradiation along with the sampling hour are used as input variables to predict the daily accumulated energy with a percentage error less than 5%.