The Next 50 Years: Unfolding Trends

Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of th...

Full description

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Published in	Population and development review Vol. 31; no. 4; pp. 605 - 643
Main Author	Smil, Vaclav
Format	Journal Article
Language	English
Published	Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2005 Blackwell Publishing The Population Council, Inc John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Series	Population and Development Review
Subjects	Anthropogenic factors Censuses Countries Demography Development studies Disasters Economic aspects Economic bubbles Economic Factors Economic trends Economics Environmental aspects Fertility rate Forecasts and trends Globalization Gross domestic product International economics Market trend/market analysis Modern history Modern society Muslims Natural history Population Population decline Predictions Segmentation Social conditions & trends Socioeconomic Factors Superpowers Trade deficits Trends United States United States economic conditions United States Middle East United States > US Europe Japan China Russia USA European Union China, People's Rep
Online Access	Get full text
ISSN	0098-7921 1728-4457
DOI	10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00091.x

Cover

Abstract	Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long-term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation.
AbstractList	Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long-term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation. Reprinted by permission of Population Council Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long-term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation. Copyright 2005 The Population Council, Inc.. The overall discontinuities in various scenarios in a global context for the past 50 years were discussed. Demographic discontinuities could be as abrupt in relative terms as major technical and political shifts. The history of the world's four largest economies illustrated that complex systems were commonly subject to changing trends. Anthropogenic alterations of the biosphere might change the global environment to such an extent that it would weaken the biophysical foundation of modern civilization and would imperil its very continuation, a change against which military capability, economic productivity, or orthodox religiosity would afford no protection. The past 50 years were an exceptionally stable and an unusual benign period in human history and the probabilities of less benign events would greatly increase during the next 50 years. Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long-term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation. Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, & often catastrophic, events & because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, & environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural & anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking & comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, & durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, & likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long-term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, & China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) & subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation. Figures, References. Adapted from the source document. Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long-term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, & often catastrophic, events & because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, & environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural & anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking & comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, & durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, & likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long-term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, & China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) & subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation. 7 Figures, 116 References. Adapted from the source document.
Audience	Academic
Author	Smil, Vaclav
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Vaclav surname: Smil fullname: Smil, Vaclav
BackLink	http://econpapers.repec.org/article/blapopdev/v_3a31_3ay_3a2005_3ai_3a4_3ap_3a605-643.htm$$DView record in RePEc
BookMark	eNqNk21v0zAQxyM0JLbBN-BFBRISL1J8fjZCSGVjBVQ2NHUgXlmu63QpaVLsdGzfnkuLKjZN6hJdLJ1_9z_7cneQ7dVNHbKsB6QP-LyZ90FRnXMuVJ8SIvqEEAP960fZ_nZjL9tHp86VofAkO0hpjhAoKfezl-PL0DsN121PkN7P4GJ627uoi6aalvWsN46hnqan2ePCVSk8-7ceZhcnH8dHn_LR2fDz0WCUey045IYwqSbcFUzJ4I1m2mvCwgSMK8zEKwcFATBQCK8ko5xKg_tTTjnzIkwZO8xebXSXsfm9Cqm1izL5UFWuDs0qWUm6uymyExQKjBaM7gSZpsCZ3p0aDJ6VSLEb5EpLIIDgizvgvFnFGutnKQBVhILZBUnBDd0FUQHrC-QbaOaqYEv8g210fhbqEF2FHVOU6B4AB8a10l3m_j08vtOwKP29Aa9vBSDTYtvM3Colq4ej22x-H-ubqgqzYLFpjs5u8182fAzL4O0ylgsXb-ykcstmOQ1X9soyxwA_N2hdl-NSonG0JZpEj-TMXrYLFNMbMR-blGIotnpAbDcydm67ybDdZNi12Hpk7DWGvr8T6svWtSUeP7qyeojAu43AH6zezYMT22-D43PT9czzTfg8tU3chjNOQMB_ZS0TlnO77eIvKxVTwv44Hdrjkw_jr0Py3Z6zvx3TP28
CODEN	PDERDO
CitedBy_id	crossref_primary_10_1111_j_1728_4457_2009_00293_x crossref_primary_10_1002_jsc_1970 crossref_primary_10_1007_BF03031818 crossref_primary_10_1111_j_1728_4457_2006_tb00010_x crossref_primary_10_3390_su11133610 crossref_primary_10_1146_annurev_soc_071811_145429
Cites_doi	10.1787/9789264199521-en 10.1001/jama.289.1.76 10.1038/nature03671 10.1787/9789264181076-en 10.1525/9780520921313 10.1093/0195168747.001.0001 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00001.x 10.1787/9789264189980-en 10.1017/S0730938400021158 10.3386/w10869 10.56021/9780801880810 10.1525/curh.2005.104.678.39a 10.1038/nature02759 10.2307/3183418 10.18356/f62048a2-en 10.3386/w10727 10.1002/9780470773857 10.1126/science.265.5176.1170 10.1093/0195168755.001.0001 10.7551/mitpress/2744.001.0001 10.4324/9780203563205 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00063.x 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00001.x 10.1126/science.1108705 10.1093/oso/9780195136494.001.0001 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-040 10.1525/aa.2002.104.3.736 10.1136/bmj.319.7225.1619 10.25336/P6MW29 10.1038/433573a 10.1073/pnas.262413599 10.1016/0162-3095(96)00035-0 10.1257/089533002760278758 10.1038/35021206 10.1353/book4635 10.1057/9780230513952 10.1038/45724 10.1215/00382876-99-4-629 10.2307/1973284
ContentType	Journal Article
Copyright	Copyright 2005 The Population Council, Inc. COPYRIGHT 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2005 The Population Council, Inc.
Copyright_xml	– notice: Copyright 2005 The Population Council, Inc. – notice: COPYRIGHT 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. – notice: 2005 The Population Council, Inc.
DBID	BSCLL AAYXX CITATION DKI X2L 8GL 7QJ 7U4 8BJ BHHNA DWI FQK JBE WZK 7ST C1K SOI 7T4 7U6
DOI	10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00091.x
DatabaseName	Istex CrossRef RePEc IDEAS RePEc Gale In Context: High School Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA) Sociological Abstracts (pre-2017) International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS) Sociological Abstracts Sociological Abstracts International Bibliography of the Social Sciences International Bibliography of the Social Sciences Sociological Abstracts (Ovid) Environment Abstracts Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management Environment Abstracts Human Population & Natural Resource Management Sustainability Science Abstracts
DatabaseTitle	CrossRef Sociological Abstracts (pre-2017) International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS) Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA) Sociological Abstracts Environment Abstracts Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management Sustainability Science Abstracts Human Population & Natural Resource Management
DatabaseTitleList	International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS) Environment Abstracts Sociological Abstracts (pre-2017) Sociological Abstracts (pre-2017) Environment Abstracts Sociological Abstracts (pre-2017) Sociological Abstracts (pre-2017) Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA)
Database_xml	– sequence: 1 dbid: DKI name: RePEc IDEAS url: http://ideas.repec.org/ sourceTypes: Index Database
DeliveryMethod	fulltext_linktorsrc
Discipline	Economics
EISSN	1728-4457
EndPage	643
ExternalDocumentID	1040239251 1014897371 983316101 A141348789 blapopdev_v_3a31_3ay_3a2005_3ai_3a4_3ap_3a605_643_htm 10_1111_j_1728_4457_2005_00091_x PADR91 3401519 ark_67375_WNG_DFBTMG0V_R
Genre	article Feature
GeographicLocations	United States Middle East United States--US Europe Japan China Russia USA European Union China, People's Rep
GeographicLocations_xml	– name: United States – name: China – name: Russia – name: Middle East – name: Europe – name: United States--US – name: Japan – name: European Union – name: USA – name: China, People's Rep
GroupedDBID	-DZ -~X .3N .GA .Y3 05W 0R~ 10A 123 1OC 1OL 29O 2AX 31~ 33P 4.4 50Y 50Z 51W 51Y 52M 52O 52Q 52S 52T 52U 52W 53G 5HH 5LA 5VS 66C 702 7PT 8-0 8-1 8-3 8-4 8-5 8GL 8UM 930 A04 AABNI AAESR AAHQN AAMMB AAMNL AANHP AAONW AAOUF AASGY AAXRX AAYCA AAZKR ABAWQ ABBHK ABCQN ABCQX ABCUV ABEML ABJNI ABLJU ABPFR ABPPZ ABPQH ABPVW ABSOO ABXSQ ACAHQ ACBKW ACBWZ ACCZN ACGFO ACGFS ACHJO ACHQT ACPOU ACRPL ACSCC ACUBG ACXQS ACYXJ ADBBV ADEMA ADEOM ADIZJ ADKYN ADMGS ADMHG ADNMO ADULT ADXAS ADZJE ADZMN AEFGJ AEHKV AEIGN AEIMD AEUPB AEUYR AEYWJ AFBPY AFEBI AFFNX AFFPM AFGKR AFKFF AFRAH AFTVO AFWVQ AFXHP AFZJQ AGHNM AGQPQ AGXDD AHBTC AHQJS AIAGR AIDQK AIDYY AIURR AKVCP ALAGY ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS ALUQN ALVPJ AMBMR AMYDB ANHSF ASPBG ASTYK AS~ AVWKF AZBYB AZFZN AZVAB BAAKF BAFTC BDRZF BFHJK BMXJE BNVMJ BQESF BROTX BRXPI BSCLL BY8 CAG COF CS3 D-C D-D DCZOG DPXWK DR2 DRFUL DRSSH DU5 EBS EJD EOH ESI F00 F01 F5P FEDTE FVMVE G-S G.N G50 GICCO GODZA HGD HGLYW HVGLF HZI HZ~ H~9 IAO IEA IHE IOF IPSME IPY ITC IUY IWH IX1 J0M JAAYA JAS JBMMH JBZCM JENOY JHFFW JKQEH JLEZI JLXEF JPL JST K48 LATKE LC2 LC4 LEEKS LH4 LITHE LOXES LP6 LP7 LUTES LW6 LYRES MEWTI MK4 MRFUL MRSSH MSFUL MSSSH MVM MXFUL MXSSH N04 N06 N95 N9A NF~ NHB O66 O9- OIG P2P P2W P2Y P4C PQQKQ Q.N Q11 QB0 R.K ROL RWL RX1 SA0 SJN SUPJJ TAE TN5 U5U UB1 V8K W8V W99 WBKPD WH7 WIH WII WMRSR WOHZO WQZ WSUWO WXSBR XG1 YHZ ZCA ZZTAW ~45 ~IA ~WP AARRQ AAHHS ABYAD ACCFJ ACTWD AEEZP AEQDE AEUQT AFPWT AFYRF AIFKG AIWBW AJBDE EQZMY IGG JSODD VQA WRC XI7 AAYXX CITATION 08R 0R 1AW 31 3N 45 AALRV AAPBV ABPTK ACXME ADDAD AFVGU AGJLS AIHXQ AIRJO AJYWA AS DKI DZ GA HZ IA IPNFZ NF P4A PQEST RIG WP X X2L Y3 7QJ 7U4 8BJ BHHNA DWI FQK JBE WZK 7ST C1K SOI 7T4 7U6
ID	FETCH-LOGICAL-c8541-90367b4af376ec9838c803eb19af9bc7a1f01191f5c76324269803d4243c5ed33
IEDL.DBID	DR2
ISSN	0098-7921
IngestDate	Sat Sep 27 19:50:05 EDT 2025 Sun Sep 28 09:26:42 EDT 2025 Fri Jul 11 00:37:26 EDT 2025 Sun Sep 28 08:12:52 EDT 2025 Thu Jul 10 18:24:29 EDT 2025 Sun Jul 13 05:26:25 EDT 2025 Sun Jul 13 03:36:28 EDT 2025 Sun Sep 07 13:21:39 EDT 2025 Fri Jun 13 00:42:54 EDT 2025 Tue Jun 10 21:22:13 EDT 2025 Fri Jun 27 06:14:57 EDT 2025 Tue Jun 10 20:04:02 EDT 2025 Wed Aug 18 03:51:35 EDT 2021 Thu Apr 24 22:53:56 EDT 2025 Tue Jul 01 03:17:22 EDT 2025 Wed Jan 22 16:44:36 EST 2025 Thu Jul 03 21:36:32 EDT 2025 Sun Sep 21 06:18:07 EDT 2025
IsPeerReviewed	true
IsScholarly	true
Issue	4
Language	English
License	http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1
LinkModel	DirectLink
MergedId	FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c8541-90367b4af376ec9838c803eb19af9bc7a1f01191f5c76324269803d4243c5ed33
Notes	ArticleID:PADR91 istex:AD19FE1FBB969891B06B807AEBBB7091CADA0C97 ark:/67375/WNG-DFBTMG0V-R SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-2 content type line 23 ObjectType-Article-1 ObjectType-Feature-2
PQID	211225183
PQPubID	37204
PageCount	39
ParticipantIDs	proquest_miscellaneous_60000970 proquest_miscellaneous_57198532 proquest_miscellaneous_38214383 proquest_miscellaneous_19980065 proquest_miscellaneous_14786101 proquest_journals_211270219 proquest_journals_211265492 proquest_journals_211225183 gale_infotracgeneralonefile_A141348789 gale_infotracacademiconefile_A141348789 gale_incontextgauss_8GL_A141348789 gale_incontextcollege_GICCO_A141348789 repec_primary_blapopdev_v_3a31_3ay_3a2005_3ai_3a4_3ap_3a605_643_htm crossref_primary_10_1111_j_1728_4457_2005_00091_x crossref_citationtrail_10_1111_j_1728_4457_2005_00091_x wiley_primary_10_1111_j_1728_4457_2005_00091_x_PADR91 jstor_primary_3401519 istex_primary_ark_67375_WNG_DFBTMG0V_R
ProviderPackageCode	CITATION AAYXX
PublicationCentury	2000
PublicationDate	December 2005
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD	2005-12-01
PublicationDate_xml	– month: 12 year: 2005 text: December 2005
PublicationDecade	2000
PublicationPlace	Oxford, UK
PublicationPlace_xml	– name: Oxford, UK – name: New York
PublicationSeriesTitle	Population and Development Review
PublicationTitle	Population and development review
PublicationTitleAlternate	Population and Development Review
PublicationYear	2005
Publisher	Blackwell Publishing Ltd Blackwell Publishing The Population Council, Inc John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Publisher_xml	– name: Blackwell Publishing Ltd – name: Blackwell Publishing – name: The Population Council, Inc – name: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
References	US Department of Defense. 2004. Annual Report to Congress. Washington , DC : US Department of Defense. National Intelligence Council. 2004. Mapping the Global Future. Washington , DC : National Intelligence Council http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html . Rao, B. N. 1974. "An overview of the fertility trends in Ontario and Quebec,"Canadian Studies in Population 1: 37-42. Mesquida, C. G. 1999. "Male age composition and severity of conflicts,"Politics and the Life Sciences 18: 181-189. Khan, A. R. and C. Riskin 2001. Inequality and Poverty in China in the Age of Globalization. Oxford : Oxford University Press. Smil, V. 2005a. "The next 50 years: Fatal discontinuities,"Population and Development Review 31: 201-236. Andriolo, K. 2002. "Murder by suicide: Episodes from Muslim history,"American Anthropologist 104: 736-742. Ferguson, N. 2005. "A world without power,"Foreign Policy July/August: 32-39. Wood, C. 1992. The Bubble Economy: Japan's Extraordinary Speculative Boom of the ′80s and the Dramatic Bust of the ′90s. New York : The Atlantic Monthly Press. Ferguson, R. W., Jr. 2005. "U.S. current account deficit: Causes and consequences,"lecture to the Economics Club of the University of North Carolina, 20 April http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050420/default.htm. Fallows, J. 2005. "Countdown to a meltdown,"The Atlantic Monthly 296 (1): 51-68. Lincoln, E. J. 2001. Arthritic Japan: The Slow Pace of Economic Reform. Washington , DC : Brookings Institution Press. Derickson, A. 2005. Health Security for All: Dreams of Universal Health Care in America. Baltimore , MD : Johns Hopkins University Press. United Nations. 2000. Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? New York : UN. Yoda, T. 2000. "A roadmap to millennial Japan,"South Atlantic Quarterly 99: 629-669. Prestowitz, C. 2005. Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East. New York : Basic Books. Reid, T. R. 2004. The United States of Europe: The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy. New York : Penguin Press. Rifkin, J. 2004. The European Dream: How Europe's Vision of the Future Is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream. New York : Tarcher/Penguin. United Nations. 2005. World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. New York : United Nations Population Division http://esa.un.org/unpp/ . Foreign Policy/Fund for Peace. 2005. "The failed states index,"Foreign Policy July/August: 56-65. International Civil Aviation Organization. 2001. The ICAO Annual Report. Montreal : ICAO. US Department of Treasury. 2005b. Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities. Washington , DC : US Department of Treasury http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt . Grimond, J. 2002. What Ails Japan? London : The Economist. Freedman, L. 2001. The Cold War: A Military History. London : Cassell & Company. Ying, S. 2004. "Regime and curbing corruption,"The China Review 4: 99-128. Hudson, V. M. and A. M. den Boer 2003. Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population. Cambridge , MA : The MIT Press. World Resources Institute. 2000. World Resources 2000-2001. Amsterdam : Elsevier. Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff 2004. The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited. Washington , DC : National Bureau of Economic Research. Fishman, T. C. 2005. China Inc.: How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World. New York : Simon & Schuster. Lowry, H. W. 2003. The Nature of the Early Ottoman State. Albany , NY : The State University of New York Press. Statistics Bureau. 2005. Japan Statistical Yearbook 2005. Tokyo : Statistics Bureau. US Drug Enforcement Agency. 2003. Illegal Drug Price and Purity Report. Washington , DC : US DEA http://www.usdoj.gov/dea/pubs/intel/02058/02058.html . Ashton, B., K. Hill, A. Piazza, and R. Zeitz 1984. "Famine in China, 1958-61,"Population and Development Review 10 (4): 613-645. Tandon, R. 2005. The Japanese Economy and the Way Forward. New York : Palgrave Macmillan. Transparency International. 2005. Corruption Perceptions Index 2004. Berlin: Transparency International http://www.transparency.org/. US Census Bureau. 2005. FT900 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services-Current, Prior and Compressed. Washington , DC : US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/press.html . Guitta, O. 2005. "Profiles in European courage: The surviving and thriving Euro-Atlanticists,"Tech Central Station, 28 April http://www.techcentralstation.com/042805C.html. O'Keefe, M. 2001. Francophone Minorities: Assimilation and Community Vitality. Ottawa : Department of Canadian Heritage. Walker, R. and F. W. Peters 2002. The Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry. Washington , DC : http://www.aerospacecommission.gov . Summers, L. H. 2004. The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Global Economy. The Per Jacobsson Lecture. Washington , DC , 3 October http://www.perjacobsson.org/2004/100304.pdf. Kaplan, R. D. 2005. "How we would fight China,"The Atlantic Monthly 295 (5): 49-64. Mokdad, A. H. et al. 2003. "Prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and obesity-related health risk factors, 2001,"Journal of the American Medical Association 289: 76-79. Dooley, M. P., D. Folkers-Landau, and P. M. Garber 2004. The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap. Washington , DC : National Bureau of Economic Research. Smil, V. 1996. Environmental Problems in China: Estimates of Economic Costs. Honolulu , HI : East-West Center. US Department of Agriculture. 2005. 2005 Agricultural Statistics. Washington , DC : US Department of Agriculture http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/agr05/acro05.htm . Smil, V. 1999. "China's great famine: 40 years later,"British Medical Journal 319 (7225): 1619-1621. Cohen, W. I. 2005. America's Failing Empire: U.S. Foreign Relations since the Cold War. Oxford : Blackwell. Leonard, M. 2004. Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century. New York : HarperCollins. Chang, J. and J. Halliday 2005. Mao: The Unknown Story. London : Cape; New York : Knopf. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2005. Overweight and Obesity. Atlanta , GA : Centers for Disease Control and Prevention http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/obesity/index.htm . Boeing 2004. 7E7 Dream Liner. Seattle , WA : Boeing http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/flash.html . Smil, V. 2004. China's Past, China's Future: Energy, Food, Environment. London : RoutledgeCurzon. Billari, F. C. and H-P. Kohler 2002. Patterns of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe. Rostock : Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung. Dong, Z., C. W. Hoven, and A. Rosenfield 2005. "Lessons from the past,"Nature 433: 573-574. Morens, D. M., G. K. Folkers, and A. S. Fauci 2004. "The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases,"Nature 430: 242-249. M. C. Tilton (eds.). 1998. Is Japan Really Changing Its Ways?: Regulatory Reform and the Japanese Economy. Washington , DC : Brookings Institution Press. Wedeman, A. 2004. "Great disorder under heaven: Endemic corruption and rapid growth in contemporary China,"The China Review 4: 1-32. Nye, J. S. 2002. The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go It Alone. New York : Oxford University Press. Hallion, Richard P. 2004. "Remembering the legacy: Highlights of the first 100 years of aviation,"The Bridge http://www.nae.edu/NAE/naehome.nsf/weblinks/MKEZ-5X5NAK?OpenDocument . Vogel, E. 1985. Japan as Number One: Lessons for America. New York : Harper & Row. Démurger, S. 2000. Economic Opening and Growth in China. Paris : Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Gibbon, E. 177678. The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. London : W. Strahan and T. Cadell. Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds.). 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. New York : Cambridge University Press. Frank, A. G. 1998. ReOrient: Global Economy in the Asian Age. Berkeley , CA : University of California Press. Tainter, J. A. 1989. The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press. International Energy Agency. 2002. Russia Energy Survey. Paris : OECD/IEA. Kremen, C., N. M. Williams, and R. W. Thorp 2002. "Crop pollination from native bees at risk from agricultural intensification,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99 (26): 16812-16816. Yang, D. 2005. "China's looming labor shortage,"Far Eastern Economic Review January/February http://www.feer.com/articles1/2005/0501/free/p019.html . Wallerstein, I. 2002. "The eagle has crash landed,"Foreign Policy July/August: 60-68. Wilson, D. and R. Purushothaman 2003. Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050. New York : Goldman Sachs http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report6.html . Béland, D. 2005. Social Security: History and Politics from the New Deal to the Privatization Debate. Lawrence , KS : University Press of Kansas. Shenkar, O. 2005. The Chinese Century: The Rising Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the Global Economy, the Balance of Power, and Your Job. Philadelphia , PA : Wharton School Publishing. Gilliver, M. A. et al. 1999. "Antibiotic resistance found in wild rodents,"Nature 401: 233. Smil, V. 2003. Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. Cambridge , MA : The MIT Press. Smil, V. 2005b. Creating the 20th Century: Technical Revolutions of 1867-1914 and Their Lasting Impact. New York : Oxford University Press. Funabashi, Y. 1988. Managing the Dollar: From the Plaza to the Louvre. Washington , DC : Institute for International Economics. Merenkov, A. P. 1999. Toplivno-energeticheskii kompleks Rossii: Sovremennoe sostoianie i vzgliad v budushchee (Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia: Current Situation and Outlook for the Future). Moscow : Nauka. Zayyät, M. 2004. The Road to al-Qaeda: The Story of Bin Läden's Right-hand Man. London and Sterling , VA : Pluto Press. United Nations Development Programme. 2005. Human Development Report 2005. New York : Oxford University Press. OECD. 2003. Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Paris : OECD h 2002; 16 1996; 17 2005a; 31 2005; 295 2005; 296 2005; 433 2005; 435 2002; 99 1998 2004; 4 1975 1997 2003; 15 1996 1974; 1 1995 2006 2005 2004 2003 1992 2002 1991 177678 1999; 401 1999 2004; 430 2004; 30 1994; 265 2001 2005b 2000 2005a 1999; 18 1984; 10 2005; 104 2000; 99 2000; 406 2002; 104 1985 2005; 308 1962 1983 2003; 29 2003; 289 1999; 319 1989 1988 OECD (b65_219) 2003 US Department of Treasury (b100_254) 2005 Tandon R. (b91_245) 2005 Freedman L. (b32_186) 2001 b61_215 Solinger D. (b86_240) 2004 Rao B. N. (b72_226) 1974; 1 b83_237 Beland D. (b6_160) 2005 Reid T. R. (b73_227) 2004 Pomeranz K. (b69_223) 2001 Shenkar O. (b78_232) 2005 Smil V. (b80_234) 1999; 319 US Bureau of the Census (b96_250) 1975 b67_221 Shahrur M. (b77_231) 2005; 104 b25_179 Smil V. (b81_235) 2003 Ashton B. (b4_158) 1984; 10 b35_189 Rollins A. M. (b75_229) 1983 United Nations (b94_248) 2005 Boeing (b9_163) 2004 US Department of Defense (b99_253) 2004 Fishman T. C. (b29_183) 2005 World Resources Institute (b111_265) 2000 Kagitcibasi C. (b45_199) 2003; 15 Proctor M. (b71_225) 1996 b3_157 Lincoln E. J. (b52_206) 2001 Maddison A. (b54_208) 2001 b57_211 Foreign Policy/Fund for Peace (b30_184) 2005 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (b15_169) 2005 Fallows J. (b26_180) 2005; 296 Walker R. (b104_258) 2002 Smil V. (b84_238) 2005 Summers L. H. (b89_243) 2004 Wilson D. (b108_262) 2003 Frank A. G. (b31_185) 1998 Gibbon E. (b34_188) 1776 Vogel E. (b103_257) 1985 Callen T. (b13_167) 2003 Mesquida C. G. (b58_212) 1999; 18 Derickson A. (b22_176) 2005 Bernanke Ben S. (b7_161) 2005 b20_174 US Census Bureau (b97_251) 2005 Smil V. (b79_233) 1996 Smil V. (b85_239) 2006 Statistics Bureau (b87_241) 2005 b1_155 b59_213 Cohen W. I. (b19_173) 2005 Hallion Richard P. (b38_192) 2004 Ufimtsev P. I. (b92_246) 1962 Grimond J. (b36_190) 2002 Funabashi Y. (b33_187) 1988 British Petroleum (b11_165) 2005 Prestowitz C. (b70_224) 2005 Sull D. N. (b88_242) 2005 US Drug Enforcement Agency (b102_256) 2003 Khan A. R. (b47_201) 2001 Nye J. S. (b63_217) 2002 Dooley M. P. (b24_178) 2004 Huntington S. P. (b41_195) 2004 Wood C. (b109_263) 1992 Chang J. (b16_170) 2005 International Energy Agency (b43_197) 2002 National Intelligence Council (b62_216) 2004 Rifkin J. (b74_228) 2004 United Nations Development Programme (b95_249) 2005 b18_172 b50_204 US Department of Agriculture (b98_252) 2005 O'Keefe M. (b66_220) 2001 Hudson V. M. (b40_194) 2003 Watanabe M. E. (b106_260) 1994; 265 Rydell I. (b76_230) 2003 b60_214 Guitta O. (b37_191) 2005 Demurger S. (b21_175) 2000 Chen G. (b17_171) 2004 Yang D. (b112_266) 2005 Tainter J. A. (b90_244) 1989 Bureau of Economic Analysis (b12_166) 2005 International Iron and Steel Institute (b44_198) 2005 Wedeman A. (b107_261) 2004; 4 b2_156 Leonard M. (b51_205) 2004 Houghton J. T. (b39_193) 2001 Ferguson R. W. (b28_182) 2005 International Civil Aviation Organization (b42_196) 2001 Smil V. (b82_236) 2004 Baumgartner U. (b5_159) 1995 United Nations (b93_247) 2000 b114_268 Zayyat M. (b115_269) 2004 b55_209 Merenkov A. P. (b56_210) 1999 b23_177 World Bank (b110_264) 1997 Obstfeld M. (b64_218) 2004 US Department of Treasury (b101_255) 2005 Ying S. (b113_267) 2004; 4 b10_164 Khomeini A. R. (b48_202) 1991 Lowry H. W. (b53_207) 2003 Ferguson N. (b27_181) 2005 Kaplan R. D. (b46_200) 2005; 295 Wallerstein I. (b105_259) 2002 Kotlikoff L. J. (b49_203) 2004 Podmazo A. A. (b68_222) 2003 Billari F. C. (b8_162) 2002 Tilton M. C. (b14_168) 1998
References_xml	– reference: United Nations. 2005. World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. New York : United Nations Population Division http://esa.un.org/unpp/ . – reference: Mesquida, C. G. and N. I. Wiener 1996. "Human collective aggression: A behavioral ecology perspective,"Ethology and Sociobiology 17: 247-262. – reference: Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff 2004. The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited. Washington , DC : National Bureau of Economic Research. – reference: Ufimtsev, P. I. 1962. Metod kraevykh voln v fizicheskoi teorii difraktsii (The Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction). Moscow : Sovietskoe radio. – reference: Gibbon, E. 177678. The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. London : W. Strahan and T. Cadell. – reference: Callen, T. 2003. Japan's Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival. Washington , DC : International Monetary Fund. – reference: OECD. 2003. Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Paris : OECD http://www.pisa.oecd.org . – reference: O'Keefe, M. 2001. Francophone Minorities: Assimilation and Community Vitality. Ottawa : Department of Canadian Heritage. – reference: Wedeman, A. 2004. "Great disorder under heaven: Endemic corruption and rapid growth in contemporary China,"The China Review 4: 1-32. – reference: Derickson, A. 2005. Health Security for All: Dreams of Universal Health Care in America. Baltimore , MD : Johns Hopkins University Press. – reference: Statistics Bureau. 2005. Japan Statistical Yearbook 2005. Tokyo : Statistics Bureau. – reference: Smil, V. 2005b. Creating the 20th Century: Technical Revolutions of 1867-1914 and Their Lasting Impact. New York : Oxford University Press. – reference: Billari, F. C. and H-P. Kohler 2002. Patterns of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe. Rostock : Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung. – reference: Khan, A. R. and C. Riskin 2001. Inequality and Poverty in China in the Age of Globalization. Oxford : Oxford University Press. – reference: British Petroleum. 2005. Statistical Review of World Energy 2005. London : British Petroleum http://www.bp.com/downloads.do?categoryId=9003093&contentId=7005944 . – reference: M. C. Tilton (eds.). 1998. Is Japan Really Changing Its Ways?: Regulatory Reform and the Japanese Economy. Washington , DC : Brookings Institution Press. – reference: Frank, A. G. 1998. ReOrient: Global Economy in the Asian Age. Berkeley , CA : University of California Press. – reference: Chang, J. and J. Halliday 2005. Mao: The Unknown Story. London : Cape; New York : Knopf. – reference: Maddison, A. 2001. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris : OECD. – reference: Cohen, M. L. 2000. "Changing patterns of infectious disease,"Nature 406: 762-767. – reference: US Department of Treasury. 2005a. Gross Federal Debt History. Washington , DC : US Department of Treasury http://www.treas.gov/education/fact-sheets/taxes/fed-debt.shtml . – reference: Zayyät, M. 2004. The Road to al-Qaeda: The Story of Bin Läden's Right-hand Man. London and Sterling , VA : Pluto Press. – reference: Wood, C. 1992. The Bubble Economy: Japan's Extraordinary Speculative Boom of the ′80s and the Dramatic Bust of the ′90s. New York : The Atlantic Monthly Press. – reference: Morens, D. M., G. K. Folkers, and A. S. Fauci 2004. "The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases,"Nature 430: 242-249. – reference: Prestowitz, C. 2005. Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East. New York : Basic Books. – reference: National Intelligence Council. 2004. Mapping the Global Future. Washington , DC : National Intelligence Council http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html . – reference: Wilson, D. and R. Purushothaman 2003. Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050. New York : Goldman Sachs http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report6.html . – reference: Gilliver, M. A. et al. 1999. "Antibiotic resistance found in wild rodents,"Nature 401: 233. – reference: International Energy Agency. 2002. Russia Energy Survey. Paris : OECD/IEA. – reference: Yang, D. 2005. "China's looming labor shortage,"Far Eastern Economic Review January/February http://www.feer.com/articles1/2005/0501/free/p019.html . – reference: Kaplan, R. D. 2005. "How we would fight China,"The Atlantic Monthly 295 (5): 49-64. – reference: US Department of Agriculture. 2005. 2005 Agricultural Statistics. Washington , DC : US Department of Agriculture http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/agr05/acro05.htm . – reference: Grimond, J. 2002. What Ails Japan? London : The Economist. – reference: Mann, C. L. 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. current account deficit and sustainability,"Journal of Economic Perspectives 16: 131-152. – reference: Ferguson, N. 2005. "A world without power,"Foreign Policy July/August: 32-39. – reference: World Bank. 1997. Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the New Century. Washington , DC : World Bank. – reference: Demeny, P. 2003. "Population policy dilemmas in Europe at the dawn of the twenty-first century,"Population and Development Review 29: 1-28. – reference: Vogel, E. 1985. Japan as Number One: Lessons for America. New York : Harper & Row. – reference: Béland, D. 2005. Social Security: History and Politics from the New Deal to the Privatization Debate. Lawrence , KS : University Press of Kansas. – reference: Lowry, H. W. 2003. The Nature of the Early Ottoman State. Albany , NY : The State University of New York Press. – reference: Sull, D. N. and Y. Wang 2005. Made in China: What Western Managers Can Learn from Trailblazing Chinese Entrepreneurs. Cambridge , MA : Harvard Business School. – reference: Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds.). 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. New York : Cambridge University Press. – reference: Andriolo, K. 2002. "Murder by suicide: Episodes from Muslim history,"American Anthropologist 104: 736-742. – reference: Smil, V. 2003. Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. Cambridge , MA : The MIT Press. – reference: Watanabe, M. E. 1994. "Pollination worries rise as honey-bees decline,"Science 265: 1170. – reference: Guitta, O. 2005. "Profiles in European courage: The surviving and thriving Euro-Atlanticists,"Tech Central Station, 28 April http://www.techcentralstation.com/042805C.html. – reference: Andreae, M. O., C. D. Jones, and P. M. Cox 2005. "Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future,"Nature 435: 1187-1190. – reference: Foreign Policy/Fund for Peace. 2005. "The failed states index,"Foreign Policy July/August: 56-65. – reference: Rifkin, J. 2004. The European Dream: How Europe's Vision of the Future Is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream. New York : Tarcher/Penguin. – reference: Bongaarts, J. 2004. "Population aging and the rising cost of public pensions,"Population and Development Review 30: 1-23. – reference: Solinger, D. 2004. The Creation of a New Urban Underclass in China and its Implications. Irvine , CA : Department of Political Science, University of California. – reference: Boeing 2004. 7E7 Dream Liner. Seattle , WA : Boeing http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/flash.html . – reference: Mesquida, C. G. 1999. "Male age composition and severity of conflicts,"Politics and the Life Sciences 18: 181-189. – reference: Walker, R. and F. W. Peters 2002. The Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry. Washington , DC : http://www.aerospacecommission.gov . – reference: US Department of Treasury. 2005b. Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities. Washington , DC : US Department of Treasury http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt . – reference: Shenkar, O. 2005. The Chinese Century: The Rising Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the Global Economy, the Balance of Power, and Your Job. Philadelphia , PA : Wharton School Publishing. – reference: International Civil Aviation Organization. 2001. The ICAO Annual Report. Montreal : ICAO. – reference: Nye, J. S. 2002. The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go It Alone. New York : Oxford University Press. – reference: Merenkov, A. P. 1999. Toplivno-energeticheskii kompleks Rossii: Sovremennoe sostoianie i vzgliad v budushchee (Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia: Current Situation and Outlook for the Future). Moscow : Nauka. – reference: Hallion, Richard P. 2004. "Remembering the legacy: Highlights of the first 100 years of aviation,"The Bridge http://www.nae.edu/NAE/naehome.nsf/weblinks/MKEZ-5X5NAK?OpenDocument . – reference: Dooley, M. P., D. Folkers-Landau, and P. M. Garber 2004. The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap. Washington , DC : National Bureau of Economic Research. – reference: Kotlikoff, L. J. and S. Burns 2004. The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know About America's Economic Future. Cambridge , MA : The MIT Press. – reference: Hudson, V. M. and A. M. den Boer 2003. Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population. Cambridge , MA : The MIT Press. – reference: US Drug Enforcement Agency. 2003. Illegal Drug Price and Purity Report. Washington , DC : US DEA http://www.usdoj.gov/dea/pubs/intel/02058/02058.html . – reference: Rollins, A. M. 1983. The Fall of Rome. Jefferson , NC : MacFarland & Co. – reference: Tandon, R. 2005. The Japanese Economy and the Way Forward. New York : Palgrave Macmillan. Transparency International. 2005. Corruption Perceptions Index 2004. Berlin: Transparency International http://www.transparency.org/. – reference: Huntington, S. P. 2004. Who Are We? The Challenge to America's National Identity. New York : Simon & Schuster. – reference: Tainter, J. A. 1989. The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press. – reference: Rydell, I. 2003. Demographic Patterns from the 1960s in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Stockholm : Institutet för Framtidsstudier. – reference: International Iron and Steel Institute. 2005. World Steel in Figures. Brussels : IISI. – reference: Pomeranz, K. 2001. The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy. Princeton , NJ : Princeton University Press. – reference: Leonard, M. 2004. Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century. New York : HarperCollins. – reference: United Nations Development Programme. 2005. Human Development Report 2005. New York : Oxford University Press. – reference: Fishman, T. C. 2005. China Inc.: How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World. New York : Simon & Schuster. – reference: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2005. News Release: U.S. Net International Investment Position at Yearend, 2004. Washington , DC : US Department of Commerce http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/intinvnewsrelease.htm . – reference: Reid, T. R. 2004. The United States of Europe: The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy. New York : Penguin Press. – reference: Summers, L. H. 2004. The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Global Economy. The Per Jacobsson Lecture. Washington , DC , 3 October http://www.perjacobsson.org/2004/100304.pdf. – reference: Chen, G. and C. Wu 2004. Zhongguo nongmin diaocha (A Survey of Chinese Peasants). Beijing : People's Literature Publishing House. – reference: Funabashi, Y. 1988. Managing the Dollar: From the Plaza to the Louvre. Washington , DC : Institute for International Economics. – reference: US Department of Defense. 2004. Annual Report to Congress. Washington , DC : US Department of Defense. – reference: Mokdad, A. H. et al. 2003. "Prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and obesity-related health risk factors, 2001,"Journal of the American Medical Association 289: 76-79. – reference: Smil, V. 2006. Transforming the 20th Century: Technical Innovations and Their Consequences. New York : Oxford University Press. – reference: Smil, V. 1999. "China's great famine: 40 years later,"British Medical Journal 319 (7225): 1619-1621. – reference: Shahrur, M. 2005. "A call for reformation,"Current History 104 (683): 39-43. – reference: Kremen, C., N. M. Williams, and R. W. Thorp 2002. "Crop pollination from native bees at risk from agricultural intensification,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99 (26): 16812-16816. – reference: World Resources Institute. 2000. World Resources 2000-2001. Amsterdam : Elsevier. – reference: Ying, S. 2004. "Regime and curbing corruption,"The China Review 4: 99-128. – reference: Kagitçibasi, C. 2003. "Science on the rise in Turkey,"TWAS Newsletter 15 (2): 24-27. – reference: Proctor, M., P. Yeo, and A. Lack 1996. The Natural History of Pollination. Portland , OR : Timber Press. – reference: Ferguson, R. W., Jr. 2005. "U.S. current account deficit: Causes and consequences,"lecture to the Economics Club of the University of North Carolina, 20 April http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050420/default.htm. – reference: Baumgartner, U. 1995. Saving Behavior and the Asset Price "Bubble" in Japan: Analytical Studies. Washington , DC : International Monetary Fund. – reference: US Census Bureau. 2005. FT900 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services-Current, Prior and Compressed. Washington , DC : US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/press.html . – reference: United Nations. 2000. Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? New York : UN. – reference: Smil, V. 1996. Environmental Problems in China: Estimates of Economic Costs. Honolulu , HI : East-West Center. – reference: US Bureau of the Census. 1975. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970. Washington , DC : US Department of Commerce http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab.html . – reference: Freedman, L. 2001. The Cold War: A Military History. London : Cassell & Company. – reference: Démurger, S. 2000. Economic Opening and Growth in China. Paris : Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. – reference: Smil, V. 2005a. "The next 50 years: Fatal discontinuities,"Population and Development Review 31: 201-236. – reference: Rao, B. N. 1974. "An overview of the fertility trends in Ontario and Quebec,"Canadian Studies in Population 1: 37-42. – reference: Podmazo, A. A. 2003. Bol'shaia evropeiskaia voina 1812-1815: khronika sobytii (The Great European War 1812-1815: The Chronicle of Events). Moscow : ROSSPEN. – reference: Wallerstein, I. 2002. "The eagle has crash landed,"Foreign Policy July/August: 60-68. – reference: Fallows, J. 2005. "Countdown to a meltdown,"The Atlantic Monthly 296 (1): 51-68. – reference: Smil, V. 2004. China's Past, China's Future: Energy, Food, Environment. London : RoutledgeCurzon. – reference: Dong, Z., C. W. Hoven, and A. Rosenfield 2005. "Lessons from the past,"Nature 433: 573-574. – reference: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2005. Overweight and Obesity. Atlanta , GA : Centers for Disease Control and Prevention http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/obesity/index.htm . – reference: Paraje, G., R. Sadana, and G. Karam 2005. "Increasing international gaps in health-related publications,"Science 308: 959-960. – reference: Ashton, B., K. Hill, A. Piazza, and R. Zeitz 1984. "Famine in China, 1958-61,"Population and Development Review 10 (4): 613-645. – reference: Lincoln, E. J. 2001. Arthritic Japan: The Slow Pace of Economic Reform. Washington , DC : Brookings Institution Press. – reference: Cohen, W. I. 2005. America's Failing Empire: U.S. Foreign Relations since the Cold War. Oxford : Blackwell. – reference: Yoda, T. 2000. "A roadmap to millennial Japan,"South Atlantic Quarterly 99: 629-669. – volume: 10 start-page: 613 issue: 4 year: 1984 end-page: 645 article-title: Famine in China, 1958–61 publication-title: Population and Development Review – year: 1985 – year: 177678 – volume: 265 start-page: 1170 year: 1994 article-title: Pollination worries rise as honey‐bees decline publication-title: Science – year: 1962 – year: 2005 – year: 2001 – year: 1989 – year: 1975 – volume: 4 start-page: 99 year: 2004 end-page: 128 article-title: Regime and curbing corruption publication-title: The China Review – year: 2004 article-title: Remembering the legacy: Highlights of the first 100 years of aviation publication-title: The Bridge – volume: 104 start-page: 39 issue: 683 year: 2005 end-page: 43 article-title: A call for reformation publication-title: Current History – volume: 295 start-page: 49 issue: 5 year: 2005 end-page: 64 article-title: How we would fight China publication-title: The Atlantic Monthly – volume: 433 start-page: 573 year: 2005 end-page: 574 article-title: Lessons from the past publication-title: Nature – year: 1998 – volume: 17 start-page: 247 year: 1996 end-page: 262 article-title: Human collective aggression: A behavioral ecology perspective publication-title: Ethology and Sociobiology – year: 2005b – volume: 289 start-page: 76 year: 2003 end-page: 79 article-title: Prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and obesity‐related health risk factors, 2001 publication-title: Journal of the American Medical Association – volume: 99 start-page: 629 year: 2000 end-page: 669 article-title: A roadmap to millennial Japan publication-title: South Atlantic Quarterly – volume: 319 start-page: 1619 issue: 7225 year: 1999 end-page: 1621 article-title: China's great famine: 40 years later publication-title: British Medical Journal – year: 2004 – year: 1997 – volume: 18 start-page: 181 year: 1999 end-page: 189 article-title: Male age composition and severity of conflicts publication-title: Politics and the Life Sciences – volume: 30 start-page: 1 year: 2004 end-page: 23 article-title: Population aging and the rising cost of public pensions publication-title: Population and Development Review – start-page: 56 year: 2005 end-page: 65 article-title: The failed states index publication-title: Foreign Policy – start-page: 32 year: 2005 end-page: 39 article-title: A world without power publication-title: Foreign Policy – volume: 430 start-page: 242 year: 2004 end-page: 249 article-title: The challenge of emerging and re‐emerging infectious diseases publication-title: Nature – volume: 15 start-page: 24 issue: 2 year: 2003 end-page: 27 article-title: Science on the rise in Turkey publication-title: TWAS Newsletter – volume: 16 start-page: 131 year: 2002 end-page: 152 article-title: Perspectives on the U.S. current account deficit and sustainability publication-title: Journal of Economic Perspectives – volume: 4 start-page: 1 year: 2004 end-page: 32 article-title: Great disorder under heaven: Endemic corruption and rapid growth in contemporary China publication-title: The China Review – volume: 406 start-page: 762 year: 2000 end-page: 767 article-title: Changing patterns of infectious disease publication-title: Nature – year: 1983 – year: 2005a – year: 2003 – year: 2000 – year: 1996 – volume: 104 start-page: 736 year: 2002 end-page: 742 article-title: Murder by suicide: Episodes from Muslim history publication-title: American Anthropologist – volume: 308 start-page: 959 year: 2005 end-page: 960 article-title: Increasing international gaps in health‐related publications publication-title: Science – volume: 435 start-page: 1187 year: 2005 end-page: 1190 article-title: Strong present‐day aerosol cooling implies a hot future publication-title: Nature – volume: 29 start-page: 1 year: 2003 end-page: 28 article-title: Population policy dilemmas in Europe at the dawn of the twenty‐first century publication-title: Population and Development Review – year: 1992 – year: 2005 article-title: China's looming labor shortage publication-title: Far Eastern Economic Review – volume: 31 start-page: 201 year: 2005a end-page: 236 article-title: The next 50 years: Fatal discontinuities publication-title: Population and Development Review – volume: 99 start-page: 16812 issue: 26 year: 2002 end-page: 16816 article-title: Crop pollination from native bees at risk from agricultural intensification publication-title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences – year: 2002 – year: 1988 – year: 2006 – volume: 401 start-page: 233 year: 1999 article-title: Antibiotic resistance found in wild rodents publication-title: Nature – start-page: 60 year: 2002 end-page: 68 article-title: The eagle has crash landed publication-title: Foreign Policy – year: 1995 – year: 1991 – volume: 1 start-page: 37 year: 1974 end-page: 42 article-title: An overview of the fertility trends in Ontario and Quebec publication-title: Canadian Studies in Population – volume: 296 start-page: 51 issue: 1 year: 2005 end-page: 68 article-title: Countdown to a meltdown publication-title: The Atlantic Monthly – year: 1999 – volume-title: Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) year: 2003 ident: b65_219 doi: 10.1787/9789264199521-en – ident: b59_213 doi: 10.1001/jama.289.1.76 – volume: 295 start-page: 49 issue: 5 year: 2005 ident: b46_200 publication-title: The Atlantic Monthly – ident: b2_156 doi: 10.1038/nature03671 – volume-title: Economic Opening and Growth in China year: 2000 ident: b21_175 doi: 10.1787/9789264181076-en – volume-title: ReOrient: Global Economy in the Asian Age year: 1998 ident: b31_185 doi: 10.1525/9780520921313 – volume-title: Creating the 20th Century: Technical Revolutions of 1867-1914 and Their Lasting Impact year: 2005 ident: b84_238 doi: 10.1093/0195168747.001.0001 – ident: b10_164 doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00001.x – volume-title: World Resources 2000-2001 year: 2000 ident: b111_265 – volume-title: The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective year: 2001 ident: b54_208 doi: 10.1787/9789264189980-en – volume-title: The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy year: 2001 ident: b69_223 – year: 2004 ident: b38_192 publication-title: The Bridge – volume-title: Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050 year: 2003 ident: b108_262 – volume-title: The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire year: 1776 ident: b34_188 – volume: 18 start-page: 181 year: 1999 ident: b58_212 publication-title: Politics and the Life Sciences doi: 10.1017/S0730938400021158 – volume-title: The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited year: 2004 ident: b64_218 doi: 10.3386/w10869 – volume: 296 start-page: 51 issue: 1 year: 2005 ident: b26_180 publication-title: The Atlantic Monthly – volume-title: Russia Energy Survey year: 2002 ident: b43_197 – volume-title: Health Security for All: Dreams of Universal Health Care in America year: 2005 ident: b22_176 doi: 10.56021/9780801880810 – volume: 104 start-page: 39 issue: 683 year: 2005 ident: b77_231 publication-title: Current History doi: 10.1525/curh.2005.104.678.39a – volume-title: The ICAO Annual Report year: 2001 ident: b42_196 – ident: b60_214 doi: 10.1038/nature02759 – ident: b25_179 – volume-title: Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 year: 2005 ident: b11_165 – volume-title: Mao: The Unknown Story year: 2005 ident: b16_170 – volume-title: Francophone Minorities: Assimilation and Community Vitality year: 2001 ident: b66_220 – start-page: 60 year: 2002 ident: b105_259 publication-title: Foreign Policy doi: 10.2307/3183418 – volume-title: Toplivno-energeticheskii kompleks Rossii: Sovremennoe sostoianie i vzgliad v budushchee (Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia: Current Situation and Outlook for the Future) year: 1999 ident: b56_210 – volume-title: Human Development Report 2005 year: 2005 ident: b95_249 doi: 10.18356/f62048a2-en – volume-title: The Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry year: 2002 ident: b104_258 – start-page: 56 year: 2005 ident: b30_184 publication-title: Foreign Policy – volume-title: Japan's Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival year: 2003 ident: b13_167 – volume-title: News Release: U.S. Net International Investment Position at Yearend, 2004 year: 2005 ident: b12_166 – volume-title: Is Japan Really Changing Its Ways?: Regulatory Reform and the Japanese Economy year: 1998 ident: b14_168 – volume-title: The Natural History of Pollination year: 1996 ident: b71_225 – volume-title: Gross Federal Debt History year: 2005 ident: b100_254 – volume-title: Managing the Dollar: From the Plaza to the Louvre year: 1988 ident: b33_187 – volume-title: Social Security: History and Politics from the New Deal to the Privatization Debate year: 2005 ident: b6_160 – volume-title: 7E7 Dream Liner year: 2004 ident: b9_163 – volume-title: The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap year: 2004 ident: b24_178 doi: 10.3386/w10727 – volume-title: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis year: 2001 ident: b39_193 – volume-title: America's Failing Empire: U.S. Foreign Relations since the Cold War year: 2005 ident: b19_173 doi: 10.1002/9780470773857 – volume-title: The Chinese Century: The Rising Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the Global Economy, the Balance of Power, and Your Job year: 2005 ident: b78_232 – volume: 265 start-page: 1170 year: 1994 ident: b106_260 publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.265.5176.1170 – volume-title: Who Are We? The Challenge to America's National Identity year: 2004 ident: b41_195 – volume-title: Transforming the 20th Century: Technical Innovations and Their Consequences year: 2006 ident: b85_239 doi: 10.1093/0195168755.001.0001 – volume-title: Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations year: 2000 ident: b93_247 – volume-title: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 year: 1975 ident: b96_250 – volume-title: Sandridge Lecture at the Virginia Association of Economists year: 2005 ident: b7_161 – volume-title: Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population year: 2003 ident: b40_194 – volume-title: Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties year: 2003 ident: b81_235 doi: 10.7551/mitpress/2744.001.0001 – volume-title: Environmental Problems in China: Estimates of Economic Costs year: 1996 ident: b79_233 – volume-title: China's Past, China's Future: Energy, Food, Environment year: 2004 ident: b82_236 doi: 10.4324/9780203563205 – volume-title: Bol'shaia evropeiskaia voina 1812-1815: khronika sobytii (The Great European War 1812-1815: The Chronicle of Events) year: 2003 ident: b68_222 – ident: b83_237 doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00063.x – ident: b20_174 doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00001.x – volume-title: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities year: 2005 ident: b101_255 – volume-title: Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the New Century year: 1997 ident: b110_264 – ident: b67_221 doi: 10.1126/science.1108705 – volume-title: The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know About America's Economic Future year: 2004 ident: b49_203 – volume-title: Saving Behavior and the Asset Price "Bubble" in Japan: Analytical Studies year: 1995 ident: b5_159 – volume-title: The Collapse of Complex Societies year: 1989 ident: b90_244 – volume-title: Made in China: What Western Managers Can Learn from Trailblazing Chinese Entrepreneurs year: 2005 ident: b88_242 – volume-title: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision year: 2005 ident: b94_248 – volume-title: FT900 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services-Current, Prior and Compressed year: 2005 ident: b97_251 – volume-title: The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Global Economy. The Per Jacobsson Lecture year: 2004 ident: b89_243 – volume-title: Inequality and Poverty in China in the Age of Globalization year: 2001 ident: b47_201 doi: 10.1093/oso/9780195136494.001.0001 – volume-title: Arthritic Japan: The Slow Pace of Economic Reform year: 2001 ident: b52_206 – volume: 4 start-page: 1 year: 2004 ident: b107_261 publication-title: The China Review – volume-title: Patterns of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe year: 2002 ident: b8_162 doi: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-040 – volume-title: 2005 Agricultural Statistics year: 2005 ident: b98_252 – volume-title: The Cold War: A Military History year: 2001 ident: b32_186 – ident: b3_157 doi: 10.1525/aa.2002.104.3.736 – volume: 4 start-page: 99 year: 2004 ident: b113_267 publication-title: The China Review – volume-title: The Creation of a New Urban Underclass in China and its Implications year: 2004 ident: b86_240 – volume: 15 start-page: 24 issue: 2 year: 2003 ident: b45_199 publication-title: TWAS Newsletter – volume-title: Annual Report to Congress year: 2004 ident: b99_253 – volume: 319 start-page: 1619 issue: 7225 year: 1999 ident: b80_234 publication-title: British Medical Journal doi: 10.1136/bmj.319.7225.1619 – volume: 1 start-page: 37 year: 1974 ident: b72_226 publication-title: Canadian Studies in Population doi: 10.25336/P6MW29 – volume-title: Metod kraevykh voln v fizicheskoi teorii difraktsii (The Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction) year: 1962 ident: b92_246 – start-page: 32 year: 2005 ident: b27_181 publication-title: Foreign Policy – volume-title: Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century year: 2004 ident: b51_205 – year: 2005 ident: b112_266 publication-title: Far Eastern Economic Review – volume-title: Japan Statistical Yearbook 2005 year: 2005 ident: b87_241 – ident: b23_177 doi: 10.1038/433573a – volume-title: U.S. current account deficit: Causes and consequences year: 2005 ident: b28_182 – ident: b1_155 – volume-title: The European Dream: How Europe's Vision of the Future Is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream year: 2004 ident: b74_228 – ident: b50_204 doi: 10.1073/pnas.262413599 – volume-title: China Inc.: How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World year: 2005 ident: b29_183 – ident: b57_211 doi: 10.1016/0162-3095(96)00035-0 – volume-title: The Bubble Economy: Japan's Extraordinary Speculative Boom of the '80s and the Dramatic Bust of the '90s year: 1992 ident: b109_263 – ident: b55_209 doi: 10.1257/089533002760278758 – ident: b18_172 doi: 10.1038/35021206 – volume-title: Light Within Me year: 1991 ident: b48_202 – volume-title: Japan as Number One: Lessons for America year: 1985 ident: b103_257 – volume-title: The Nature of the Early Ottoman State year: 2003 ident: b53_207 doi: 10.1353/book4635 – ident: b61_215 – volume-title: The Road to al-Qaeda: The Story of Bin Laden's Right-hand Man year: 2004 ident: b115_269 – volume-title: The Japanese Economy and the Way Forward year: 2005 ident: b91_245 doi: 10.1057/9780230513952 – volume-title: Mapping the Global Future year: 2004 ident: b62_216 – volume-title: World Steel in Figures year: 2005 ident: b44_198 – volume-title: Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East year: 2005 ident: b70_224 – volume-title: Illegal Drug Price and Purity Report year: 2003 ident: b102_256 – volume-title: What Ails Japan year: 2002 ident: b36_190 – volume-title: The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go It Alone year: 2002 ident: b63_217 – volume-title: Zhongguo nongmin diaocha (A Survey of Chinese Peasants) year: 2004 ident: b17_171 – ident: b35_189 doi: 10.1038/45724 – volume-title: Demographic Patterns from the 1960s in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal year: 2003 ident: b76_230 – ident: b114_268 doi: 10.1215/00382876-99-4-629 – volume: 10 start-page: 613 issue: 4 year: 1984 ident: b4_158 publication-title: Population and Development Review doi: 10.2307/1973284 – volume-title: Profiles in European courage: The surviving and thriving Euro-Atlanticists year: 2005 ident: b37_191 – volume-title: The United States of Europe: The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy year: 2004 ident: b73_227 – volume-title: Overweight and Obesity year: 2005 ident: b15_169 – volume-title: The Fall of Rome year: 1983 ident: b75_229
SSID	ssj0001766
Score	1.8034189
Snippet	Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic,... The overall discontinuities in various scenarios in a global context for the past 50 years were discussed. Demographic discontinuities could be as abrupt in... Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, & often catastrophic, events & because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social,...
SourceID	proquest gale repec crossref wiley jstor istex
SourceType	Aggregation Database Index Database Enrichment Source Publisher
StartPage	605
SubjectTerms	Anthropogenic factors Censuses Countries Demography Development studies Disasters Economic aspects Economic bubbles Economic Factors Economic trends Economics Environmental aspects Fertility rate Forecasts and trends Globalization Gross domestic product International economics Market trend/market analysis Modern history Modern society Muslims Natural history Population Population decline Predictions Segmentation Social conditions & trends Socioeconomic Factors Superpowers Trade deficits Trends United States United States economic conditions
Title	The Next 50 Years: Unfolding Trends
URI	https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/WNG-DFBTMG0V-R/fulltext.pdf https://www.jstor.org/stable/3401519 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111%2Fj.1728-4457.2005.00091.x http://econpapers.repec.org/article/blapopdev/v_3a31_3ay_3a2005_3ai_3a4_3ap_3a605-643.htm https://www.proquest.com/docview/211225183 https://www.proquest.com/docview/211265492 https://www.proquest.com/docview/211270219 https://www.proquest.com/docview/14786101 https://www.proquest.com/docview/19980065 https://www.proquest.com/docview/38214383 https://www.proquest.com/docview/57198532 https://www.proquest.com/docview/60000970
Volume	31
hasFullText	1
inHoldings	1
isFullTextHit
isPrint
journalDatabaseRights	– providerCode: PRVEBS databaseName: EBSCOhost Business Source Ultimate customDbUrl: eissn: 1728-4457 dateEnd: 20240930 omitProxy: true ssIdentifier: ssj0001766 issn: 0098-7921 databaseCode: AKVCP dateStart: 19750901 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?authtype=ip,uid&profile=ehost&defaultdb=bsu providerName: EBSCOhost – providerCode: PRVWIB databaseName: Wiley Online Library - Core collection (SURFmarket) issn: 0098-7921 databaseCode: DR2 dateStart: 19990101 customDbUrl: isFulltext: true eissn: 1728-4457 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0001766 providerName: Wiley-Blackwell
link	http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwrV3db9MwELfQ9gAvfA4RBiMCNJ4yxXEcx7yVjnZ8rKBqhe3Jst1koI62atpp4q_nzvmATCuaEA_pi89Rfbk7_84-_0zIy5yC6g1jATWUB7E0OjBMpoFmEWVJHOYixAPOh4PkYBS_P-bHVf0TnoUp-SGaBTf0DBev0cG1KdpOLnBlKOaiXhqBuW8P8SRl3O3YDn8zSSEPYkOfKSN6qajnqhe1ZqoqXm-i7i_q2sUWKt1cZPPMtjGum6R6d8ikHl5ZmzLZWy3Nnv15ifnx_4z_LrldYVm_UxrfPXIjm94nN-ujzsUD8gKM0B9A-Pd56J-ATxWv_RFYtNvw8sty3C0y6r096h4E1a0MgU15jPUcLBEm1jmEpszKlKU2DRmEfKlzaazQNEceOZpzK5ALPkoktI_jKGaWZ2PGHpKN6WyaPSJ-ZCQ1Nh8nocniPKEolxppBORFEP20R0T9BZStKMvx5owz9UfqAkpQqAS8UJMrpwR14RHa9JyXtB3X6LOLH1khK8YUy25suXSjYPTdT6pDYb6H9C6VHnneFjzVq6JQaf9jS-hVJZTP4D9bXR13gJEj41ZLcrcleVryjV8p6MyvGZFeTLAuT3D1ddBX-703R4f98IsaemTL2WcjyCCLBqjuke3aXlUVqgoVAeIGkJuyta0JsvitbRWAEuHNz5pWiE-46aSn2WxVQGopUoDo9C8SkPEjEl4vwdKIIqXuegkuqATgGa2XSFw2JEKPdJ2jNroxZ3o-m4-zc3WumGYUfkBh2lkG09_hieGZwwOZvwIAr74tf3iEO9-8tnGpz539oaSP_7HfNrlVcgZjHdUTsrFcrLKngIaXZgfi3Id3Oy7a_QJD053S
linkProvider	Wiley-Blackwell
linkToHtml	http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwrV3db9MwELfQ-jBe-BwiDFgEaDyliuMkjnkrLW2BtqCqhe3Jst1koJW2atpp4q_nLl-QaUUT4iF98TmqL3fn39nnnwl5lVBQvWbMoZoGji-0cjQTkaOYR1nouwl38YDzcBT2p_6Hk-CkuA4Iz8Lk_BDVght6Rhav0cFxQbru5RyXhvyAl2sjMPk1AVA2cLsOvbQz_s0lhUyIFYGm8OiVsp7r3lSbq4qI3UDtX5bVizVc2ljHq9jUUW42TXXvknk5wLw65by53eim-XmF-_E_aeAeuVPAWbuV2999citePCD75Wnn9CF5CXZoj2AGsAPXPgW3St_YUzDqbM_LzityD8i0-27S7jvFxQyOiQIfSzpYyLWvEohOsRERi0zkMoj6QiVCG65oglRyNAkMRzp4LxTQPvM9n5kgnjH2iOwtlov4MbE9Lag2ySx0dewnIUW5SAvNITWCAKgswstPIE3BWo6XZ8zlH9kLKEGiEvBOzUBmSpCXFqFVz1XO3HGDPsf4lSUSYyyw8sbkqzcSRt_-JFsUpnzI8CJhkRd1wTO1TVMZ9QY1odeFULKE_2xUceIBRo6kWzXJ45rkWU45fq1gZn_ViNT6HEvzeCC_jnqy0307GfbcL3JskYPMQCtBBok0oHWLHJYGK4tolUoPQDfg3IjtbA2RyG9nKwegCG8-qlohROG-k1rEy20K2SWPAKXTv0hA0o9geLcEizyKrLq7JQJOBWBPb7dEmCVE3LVIO_PUSjd6rlbL1Sy-kBeSKUbhBxSmMstg6js8PjwreCD5l4Dh5bfND4sEmXPe2Ljk51ZnLOiTf-x3RPb7k-FADt6PPh6S2zmFMJZVPSV7m_U2fgbgeKOfZ0HvF02FoPU
linkToPdf	http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwrV3db9MwELfQKgEvfA4RBiwCNJ5SxXESx7yVlnbAVqZqhfFk2W4yUEcaNe008ddzly_ItKIJ8eC--BzVl7vz75zzz4S8SiioXjPmUE0DxxdaOZqJyFHMoyz03YS7eMD5cBzuT_0PJ8FJVf-EZ2FKfohmww09o4jX6ODZLGk7OcedIT_g9dYIrH1dwJMdP4RkCwHS5DeVFBIhNvyZwqOXqnquelJrqaoCdgeVf1EXL7ZgaWcZZ7Fpg9xilRreJfN6fmVxyry7Xumu-XmJ-vH_KOAeuVOBWbtXWt99ciNOH5Bb9Vnn_CF5CVZojyH-24FrfwWnyt_YUzDp4ouXXdbjbpPp8N1xf9-prmVwTBT4WNDBQq59lUBsio2IWGQil0HMFyoR2nBFEySSo0lgOJLBe6GA_pnv-cwE8YyxR2QrXaTxY2J7WlBtklno6thPQopykRaaQ2IE4U9ZhNdvQJqKsxyvzjiTf-QuoASJSsAbNQNZKEFeWIQ2I7OSt-MaY_bwJUukxUix7saUezcSZt__JHsUFnzI7yJhkRdtwVO1znMZjQ5aQq8roWQB_9mo6rwDzBwpt1qSey3J05Jw_ErBwvyaGanlHAvzeCC_jEdyMHx7fDhyP8uJRbYL-2wEGaTRgNUtslPbq6xiVS49gNyAciO2sTdEGr-NvRxgIjx5t-mFAIVfnVQaL9Y55JY8AoxO_yIBKT9C4c0SLPIocupulgg4FYA8vc0SYZEOcdci_cJRG93oM5Utsll8Ls8lU4zCDyhMFZbB1HdoPrQMGqT-EhC8_Lb6YZGg8M1rG5c86g0mgj75x3G75ObRYCgP3o8_7pDbJX8w1lQ9JVur5Tp-Bsh4pZ8XIe8Xu0ifpA
openUrl	ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=The+next+50+years%3A+unfolding+trends&rft.jtitle=Population+and+development+review&rft.au=Smil%2C+Vaclav&rft.date=2005-12-01&rft.pub=John+Wiley+%26+Sons%2C+Inc&rft.issn=0098-7921&rft.volume=31&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=605&rft_id=info:doi/10.1111%2Fj.1728-4457.2005.00091.x&rft.externalDocID=A141348789
thumbnail_l	http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0098-7921&client=summon
thumbnail_m	http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0098-7921&client=summon
thumbnail_s	http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0098-7921&client=summon