The Next 50 Years: Unfolding Trends

• Published in: Population and development review Vol. 31; no. 4; pp. 605 - 643
• Main Author: Smil, Vaclav
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2005; Blackwell Publishing; The Population Council, Inc; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Series: Population and Development Review
• Subjects: Anthropogenic factors; Censuses; Countries; Demography; Development studies; Disasters; Economic aspects; Economic bubbles; Economic Factors; Economic trends; Economics; Environmental aspects; Fertility rate; Forecasts and trends; Globalization; Gross domestic product; International economics; Market trend/market analysis; Modern history; Modern society; Muslims; Natural history; Population; Population decline; Predictions; Segmentation; Social conditions & trends; Socioeconomic Factors; Superpowers; Trade deficits; Trends; United States; United States economic conditions; United States; Middle East; United States > US; Europe; Japan; China; Russia; USA; European Union; China, People's Rep
• ISSN: 0098-7921; 1728-4457
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00091.x

Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long-term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation.