Key determinants of global land-use projections
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these...
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| Published in | Nature communications Vol. 10; no. 1; pp. 2166 - 10 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
15.05.2019
Nature Publishing Group Nature Portfolio |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 2041-1723 2041-1723 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w |
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| Abstract | Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.
There lacks model comparison of global land use change projections. Here the authors explored how different long-term drivers determine land use and food availability projections and they showed that the key determinants population growth and improvements in agricultural efficiency. |
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| AbstractList | Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies. Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.There lacks model comparison of global land use change projections. Here the authors explored how different long-term drivers determine land use and food availability projections and they showed that the key determinants population growth and improvements in agricultural efficiency. Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies. There lacks model comparison of global land use change projections. Here the authors explored how different long-term drivers determine land use and food availability projections and they showed that the key determinants population growth and improvements in agricultural efficiency. Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies. There lacks model comparison of global land use change projections. Here the authors explored how different long-term drivers determine land use and food availability projections and they showed that the key determinants population growth and improvements in agricultural efficiency. |
| ArticleNumber | 2166 |
| Author | van Zeist, Willem-Jan Kyle, Page Bodirsky, Benjamin L. Stehfest, Elke Valin, Hugo Tabeau, Andrzej Fujimori, Shinichiro Doelman, Jonathan C. Humpenöder, Florian Calvin, Katherine Lotze-Campen, Hermann van Meijl, Hans Havlik, Petr Hasegawa, Tomoko Wiebe, Keith Popp, Alexander Mason-D’Croz, Daniel |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Elke surname: Stehfest fullname: Stehfest, Elke email: Elke.Stehfest@pbl.nl organization: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency – sequence: 2 givenname: Willem-Jan surname: van Zeist fullname: van Zeist, Willem-Jan organization: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency – sequence: 3 givenname: Hugo orcidid: 0000-0002-0618-773X surname: Valin fullname: Valin, Hugo organization: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) – sequence: 4 givenname: Petr surname: Havlik fullname: Havlik, Petr organization: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) – sequence: 5 givenname: Alexander surname: Popp fullname: Popp, Alexander organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) – sequence: 6 givenname: Page orcidid: 0000-0002-1257-8358 surname: Kyle fullname: Kyle, Page organization: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory – sequence: 7 givenname: Andrzej surname: Tabeau fullname: Tabeau, Andrzej organization: Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University and Research – sequence: 8 givenname: Daniel orcidid: 0000-0003-0673-2301 surname: Mason-D’Croz fullname: Mason-D’Croz, Daniel organization: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) – sequence: 9 givenname: Tomoko orcidid: 0000-0003-2456-5789 surname: Hasegawa fullname: Hasegawa, Tomoko organization: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1, Nojihigashi, Kusatsu – sequence: 10 givenname: Benjamin L. orcidid: 0000-0002-8242-6712 surname: Bodirsky fullname: Bodirsky, Benjamin L. organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) – sequence: 11 givenname: Katherine orcidid: 0000-0003-2191-4189 surname: Calvin fullname: Calvin, Katherine organization: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory – sequence: 12 givenname: Jonathan C. surname: Doelman fullname: Doelman, Jonathan C. organization: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency – sequence: 13 givenname: Shinichiro orcidid: 0000-0001-7897-1796 surname: Fujimori fullname: Fujimori, Shinichiro organization: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University – sequence: 14 givenname: Florian surname: Humpenöder fullname: Humpenöder, Florian organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) – sequence: 15 givenname: Hermann orcidid: 0000-0002-0003-5508 surname: Lotze-Campen fullname: Lotze-Campen, Hermann organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin – sequence: 16 givenname: Hans surname: van Meijl fullname: van Meijl, Hans organization: Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University and Research – sequence: 17 givenname: Keith orcidid: 0000-0001-6035-620X surname: Wiebe fullname: Wiebe, Keith organization: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31092816$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1530840$$D View this record in Osti.gov |
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| Snippet | Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five... There lacks model comparison of global land use change projections. Here the authors explored how different long-term drivers determine land use and food... |
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| SubjectTerms | 704/172/4081 704/844/2787 704/844/682 Agricultural land Agricultural production Agronomy Climate-change mitigation Determinants Development strategies Economic analysis Economics Empirical analysis Environmental impact ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Food availability Food security Heterogeneity Humanities and Social Sciences Internationaal Beleid International Policy Land use LEI Internationaal Beleid LEI International Policy LEI Programmamanagement multidisciplinary open climate campaign Pasture Population growth Programmamanagement Science Science (multidisciplinary) Sensitivity Socioeconomic scenarios Socioeconomics Sustainable development |
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| Title | Key determinants of global land-use projections |
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