Early rigorous control interventions can largely reduce dengue outbreak magnitude: experience from Chaozhou, China
Background Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measur...
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| Published in | BMC public health Vol. 18; no. 1; pp. 90 - 10 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
BioMed Central
02.08.2017
BioMed Central Ltd BMC |
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| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1471-2458 1471-2458 |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12889-017-4616-x |
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| Abstract | Background
Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing?
Methods
We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic.
Results
A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (
n
= 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak.
Conclusions
This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Abstract Background Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? Methods We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. Results A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. Conclusions This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration. Background Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? Methods We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. Results A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number ( n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. Conclusions This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration. Background Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? Methods We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. Results A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. Conclusions This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration. Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing?BACKGROUNDDengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing?We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic.METHODSWe selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic.A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak.RESULTSA total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak.This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration.CONCLUSIONSThis study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration. Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration. Background Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? Methods We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. Results A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. Conclusions This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration. Keywords: Dengue fever, Epidemic, Compartmental dynamic model, SEIR model Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration. |
| ArticleNumber | 90 |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Zhong, Haojie Xiao, Jianpeng Xie, Runsheng Lin, Hualiang Wu, Xiaocheng Hu, Wenbiao He, Jianfeng Li, Xing Ma, Wenjun Li, Zhihao Song, Tie Zeng, Weilin Zhang, Meng Liu, Tao Zhu, Guanghu Zhang, Yonghui |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Tao surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Tao organization: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 2 givenname: Guanghu surname: Zhu fullname: Zhu, Guanghu organization: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 3 givenname: Jianfeng surname: He fullname: He, Jianfeng organization: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 4 givenname: Tie surname: Song fullname: Song, Tie organization: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 5 givenname: Meng surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Meng organization: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 6 givenname: Hualiang surname: Lin fullname: Lin, Hualiang organization: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 7 givenname: Jianpeng surname: Xiao fullname: Xiao, Jianpeng organization: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 8 givenname: Weilin surname: Zeng fullname: Zeng, Weilin organization: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 9 givenname: Xing surname: Li fullname: Li, Xing organization: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 10 givenname: Zhihao surname: Li fullname: Li, Zhihao organization: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 11 givenname: Runsheng surname: Xie fullname: Xie, Runsheng organization: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 12 givenname: Haojie surname: Zhong fullname: Zhong, Haojie organization: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 13 givenname: Xiaocheng surname: Wu fullname: Wu, Xiaocheng organization: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Faculty of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University – sequence: 14 givenname: Wenbiao surname: Hu fullname: Hu, Wenbiao organization: School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology – sequence: 15 givenname: Yonghui surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Yonghui email: zyh@cdcp.org.cn organization: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention – sequence: 16 givenname: Wenjun surname: Ma fullname: Ma, Wenjun email: mawj@gdiph.org.cn organization: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28768542$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Keywords | Epidemic Compartmental dynamic model SEIR model Dengue fever |
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Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified... Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were... Background Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified... Abstract Background Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified... |
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| SubjectTerms | Analysis Animals Biostatistics China - epidemiology Cities Communicable Disease Control - organization & administration Compartmental dynamic model Culicidae - growth & development Dengue - epidemiology Dengue - prevention & control Dengue fever Development and progression Disease control Disease Outbreaks Disease prevention Environmental Health Epidemic Epidemics Epidemiology Expatriates Fever Humans Infectious Disease epidemiology Infectious diseases Insect Vectors - growth & development Local government Medical personnel Medicine Medicine & Public Health Mosquitoes Outbreaks Pesticides Population Professionals Public Health Research Article Risk factors SEIR model Vaccine Vector-borne diseases Vectors Viral diseases |
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| Title | Early rigorous control interventions can largely reduce dengue outbreak magnitude: experience from Chaozhou, China |
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