Effects of decreases of animal pollinators on human nutrition and global health: a modelling analysis
Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world. We assembled a database of supplies of...
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| Published in | The Lancet (British edition) Vol. 386; no. 10007; pp. 1964 - 1972 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
England
Elsevier Ltd
14.11.2015
Elsevier B.V Elsevier Limited |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0140-6736 1474-547X 1474-547X |
| DOI | 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61085-6 |
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| Abstract | Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world.
We assembled a database of supplies of 224 types of food in 156 countries. We quantified nutrient composition and pollinator dependence of foods to estimate the size of possible reductions in micronutrient and food intakes for different national populations, while keeping calorie intake constant with replacement by staple foods. We estimated pollinator-decline-dependent changes in micronutrient-deficient populations using population-weighted estimated average requirements and the cutpoint method. We estimated disease burdens of non-communicable, communicable, and malnutrition-related diseases with the Global Burden of Disease 2010 comparative risk assessment framework.
Assuming complete removal of pollinators, 71 million (95% uncertainty interval 41–262) people in low-income countries could become newly deficient in vitamin A, and an additional 2·2 billion (1·2–2·5) already consuming below the average requirement would have further declines in vitamin A supplies. Corresponding estimates for folate were 173 million (134–225) and 1·23 billion (1·12–1·33). A 100% decline in pollinator services could reduce global fruit supplies by 22·9% (19·5–26·1), vegetables by 16·3% (15·1–17·7), and nuts and seeds by 22·1% (17·7–26·4), with significant heterogeneity by country. In sum, these dietary changes could increase global deaths yearly from non-communicable and malnutrition-related diseases by 1·42 million (1·38–1·48) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by 27·0 million (25·8–29·1), an increase of 2·7% for deaths and 1·1% for DALYs. A 50% loss of pollination services would be associated with 700 000 additional annual deaths and 13·2 million DALYs.
Declines in animal pollinators could cause significant global health burdens from both non-communicable diseases and micronutrient deficiencies.
Winslow Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
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| AbstractList | SummaryBackgroundAnthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world.MethodsWe assembled a database of supplies of 224 types of food in 156 countries. We quantified nutrient composition and pollinator dependence of foods to estimate the size of possible reductions in micronutrient and food intakes for different national populations, while keeping calorie intake constant with replacement by staple foods. We estimated pollinator-decline-dependent changes in micronutrient-deficient populations using population-weighted estimated average requirements and the cutpoint method. We estimated disease burdens of non-communicable, communicable, and malnutrition-related diseases with the Global Burden of Disease 2010 comparative risk assessment framework.FindingsAssuming complete removal of pollinators, 71 million (95% uncertainty interval 41–262) people in low-income countries could become newly deficient in vitamin A, and an additional 2·2 billion (1·2–2·5) already consuming below the average requirement would have further declines in vitamin A supplies. Corresponding estimates for folate were 173 million (134–225) and 1·23 billion (1·12–1·33). A 100% decline in pollinator services could reduce global fruit supplies by 22·9% (19·5–26·1), vegetables by 16·3% (15·1–17·7), and nuts and seeds by 22·1% (17·7–26·4), with significant heterogeneity by country. In sum, these dietary changes could increase global deaths yearly from non-communicable and malnutrition-related diseases by 1·42 million (1·38–1·48) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by 27·0 million (25·8–29·1), an increase of 2·7% for deaths and 1·1% for DALYs. A 50% loss of pollination services would be associated with 700 000 additional annual deaths and 13·2 million DALYs.InterpretationDeclines in animal pollinators could cause significant global health burdens from both non-communicable diseases and micronutrient deficiencies.FundingWinslow Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Background Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world. Methods We assembled a database of supplies of 224 types of food in 156 countries. We quantified nutrient composition and pollinator dependence of foods to estimate the size of possible reductions in micronutrient and food intakes for different national populations, while keeping calorie intake constant with replacement by staple foods. We estimated pollinator-decline-dependent changes in micronutrient-deficient populations using population-weighted estimated average requirements and the cutpoint method. We estimated disease burdens of non-communicable, communicable, and malnutrition-related diseases with the Global Burden of Disease 2010 comparative risk assessment framework. Findings Assuming complete removal of pollinators, 71 million (95% uncertainty interval 41-262) people in low-income countries could become newly deficient in vitamin A, and an additional 2.2 billion (1.2-2.5) already consuming below the average requirement would have further declines in vitamin A supplies. Corresponding estimates for folate were 173 million (134-225) and 1.23 billion (1.12-1.33). A 100% decline in pollinator services could reduce global fruit supplies by 22.9% (19.5-26.1), vegetables by 16.3% (15.1-17.7), and nuts and seeds by 22.1% (17.7-26.4), with significant heterogeneity by country. In sum, these dietary changes could increase global deaths yearly from non-communicable and malnutrition-related diseases by 1.42 million (1.38-1.48) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by 27.0 million (25.8-29.1), an increase of 2.7% for deaths and 1.1% for DALYs. A 50% loss of pollination services would be associated with 700000 additional annual deaths and 13.2 million DALYs. Interpretation Declines in animal pollinators could cause significant global health burdens from both non-communicable diseases and micronutrient deficiencies. Funding Winslow Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world. We assembled a database of supplies of 224 types of food in 156 countries. We quantified nutrient composition and pollinator dependence of foods to estimate the size of possible reductions in micronutrient and food intakes for different national populations, while keeping calorie intake constant with replacement by staple foods. We estimated pollinator-decline-dependent changes in micronutrient-deficient populations using population-weighted estimated average requirements and the cutpoint method. We estimated disease burdens of non-communicable, communicable, and malnutrition-related diseases with the Global Burden of Disease 2010 comparative risk assessment framework. Assuming complete removal of pollinators, 71 million (95% uncertainty interval 41–262) people in low-income countries could become newly deficient in vitamin A, and an additional 2·2 billion (1·2–2·5) already consuming below the average requirement would have further declines in vitamin A supplies. Corresponding estimates for folate were 173 million (134–225) and 1·23 billion (1·12–1·33). A 100% decline in pollinator services could reduce global fruit supplies by 22·9% (19·5–26·1), vegetables by 16·3% (15·1–17·7), and nuts and seeds by 22·1% (17·7–26·4), with significant heterogeneity by country. In sum, these dietary changes could increase global deaths yearly from non-communicable and malnutrition-related diseases by 1·42 million (1·38–1·48) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by 27·0 million (25·8–29·1), an increase of 2·7% for deaths and 1·1% for DALYs. A 50% loss of pollination services would be associated with 700 000 additional annual deaths and 13·2 million DALYs. Declines in animal pollinators could cause significant global health burdens from both non-communicable diseases and micronutrient deficiencies. Winslow Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world. We assembled a database of supplies of 224 types of food in 156 countries. We quantified nutrient composition and pollinator dependence of foods to estimate the size of possible reductions in micronutrient and food intakes for different national populations, while keeping calorie intake constant with replacement by staple foods. We estimated pollinator-decline-dependent changes in micronutrient-deficient populations using population-weighted estimated average requirements and the cutpoint method. We estimated disease burdens of non-communicable, communicable, and malnutrition-related diseases with the Global Burden of Disease 2010 comparative risk assessment framework. Assuming complete removal of pollinators, 71 million (95% uncertainty interval 41-262) people in low-income countries could become newly deficient in vitamin A, and an additional 2.2 billion (1.2-2.5) already consuming below the average requirement would have further declines in vitamin A supplies. Corresponding estimates for folate were 173 million (134-225) and 1.23 billion (1.12-1.33). A 100% decline in pollinator services could reduce global fruit supplies by 22.9% (19.5-26.1), vegetables by 16.3% (15.1-17.7), and nuts and seeds by 22.1% (17.7-26.4), with significant heterogeneity by country. In sum, these dietary changes could increase global deaths yearly from non-communicable and malnutrition-related diseases by 1.42 million (1.38-1.48) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by 27.0 million (25.8-29.1), an increase of 2.7% for deaths and 1.1% for DALYs. A 50% loss of pollination services would be associated with 700,000 additional annual deaths and 13.2 million DALYs. Declines in animal pollinators could cause significant global health burdens from both non-communicable diseases and micronutrient deficiencies. Winslow Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Summary Background Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world. Methods We assembled a database of supplies of 224 types of food in 156 countries. We quantified nutrient composition and pollinator dependence of foods to estimate the size of possible reductions in micronutrient and food intakes for different national populations, while keeping calorie intake constant with replacement by staple foods. We estimated pollinator-decline-dependent changes in micronutrient-deficient populations using population-weighted estimated average requirements and the cutpoint method. We estimated disease burdens of non-communicable, communicable, and malnutrition-related diseases with the Global Burden of Disease 2010 comparative risk assessment framework. Findings Assuming complete removal of pollinators, 71 million (95% uncertainty interval 41–262) people in low-income countries could become newly deficient in vitamin A, and an additional 2·2 billion (1·2–2·5) already consuming below the average requirement would have further declines in vitamin A supplies. Corresponding estimates for folate were 173 million (134–225) and 1·23 billion (1·12–1·33). A 100% decline in pollinator services could reduce global fruit supplies by 22·9% (19·5–26·1), vegetables by 16·3% (15·1–17·7), and nuts and seeds by 22·1% (17·7–26·4), with significant heterogeneity by country. In sum, these dietary changes could increase global deaths yearly from non-communicable and malnutrition-related diseases by 1·42 million (1·38–1·48) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by 27·0 million (25·8–29·1), an increase of 2·7% for deaths and 1·1% for DALYs. A 50% loss of pollination services would be associated with 700 000 additional annual deaths and 13·2 million DALYs. Interpretation Declines in animal pollinators could cause significant global health burdens from both non-communicable diseases and micronutrient deficiencies. Funding Winslow Foundation , Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world. Methods We assembled a database of supplies of 224 types of food in 156 countries. We quantified nutrient composition and pollinator dependence of foods to estimate the size of possible reductions in micronutrient and food intakes for different national populations, while keeping calorie intake constant with replacement by staple foods. We estimated pollinator-decline-dependent changes in micronutrient-deficient populations using population-weighted estimated average requirements and the cutpoint method. We estimated disease burdens of non-communicable, communicable, and malnutrition-related diseases with the Global Burden of Disease 2010 comparative risk assessment framework. Findings Assuming complete removal of pollinators, 71 million (95% uncertainty interval 41-262) people in low-income countries could become newly deficient in vitamin A, and an additional 2·2 billion (1·2-2·5) already consuming below the average requirement would have further declines in vitamin A supplies. Corresponding estimates for folate were 173 million (134-225) and 1·23 billion (1·12-1·33). A 100% decline in pollinator services could reduce global fruit supplies by 22·9% (19·5-26·1), vegetables by 16·3% (15·1-17·7), and nuts and seeds by 22·1% (17·7-26·4), with significant heterogeneity by country. In sum, these dietary changes could increase global deaths yearly from non-communicable and malnutrition-related diseases by 1·42 million (1·38-1·48) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by 27·0 million (25·8-29·1), an increase of 2·7% for deaths and 1·1% for DALYs. A 50% loss of pollination services would be associated with 700 000 additional annual deaths and 13·2 million DALYs. Interpretation Declines in animal pollinators could cause significant global health burdens from both non-communicable diseases and micronutrient deficiencies. Funding Winslow Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world.BACKGROUNDAnthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health outcomes associated with decreased intake of pollinator-dependent foods for populations around the world.We assembled a database of supplies of 224 types of food in 156 countries. We quantified nutrient composition and pollinator dependence of foods to estimate the size of possible reductions in micronutrient and food intakes for different national populations, while keeping calorie intake constant with replacement by staple foods. We estimated pollinator-decline-dependent changes in micronutrient-deficient populations using population-weighted estimated average requirements and the cutpoint method. We estimated disease burdens of non-communicable, communicable, and malnutrition-related diseases with the Global Burden of Disease 2010 comparative risk assessment framework.METHODSWe assembled a database of supplies of 224 types of food in 156 countries. We quantified nutrient composition and pollinator dependence of foods to estimate the size of possible reductions in micronutrient and food intakes for different national populations, while keeping calorie intake constant with replacement by staple foods. We estimated pollinator-decline-dependent changes in micronutrient-deficient populations using population-weighted estimated average requirements and the cutpoint method. We estimated disease burdens of non-communicable, communicable, and malnutrition-related diseases with the Global Burden of Disease 2010 comparative risk assessment framework.Assuming complete removal of pollinators, 71 million (95% uncertainty interval 41-262) people in low-income countries could become newly deficient in vitamin A, and an additional 2.2 billion (1.2-2.5) already consuming below the average requirement would have further declines in vitamin A supplies. Corresponding estimates for folate were 173 million (134-225) and 1.23 billion (1.12-1.33). A 100% decline in pollinator services could reduce global fruit supplies by 22.9% (19.5-26.1), vegetables by 16.3% (15.1-17.7), and nuts and seeds by 22.1% (17.7-26.4), with significant heterogeneity by country. In sum, these dietary changes could increase global deaths yearly from non-communicable and malnutrition-related diseases by 1.42 million (1.38-1.48) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by 27.0 million (25.8-29.1), an increase of 2.7% for deaths and 1.1% for DALYs. A 50% loss of pollination services would be associated with 700,000 additional annual deaths and 13.2 million DALYs.FINDINGSAssuming complete removal of pollinators, 71 million (95% uncertainty interval 41-262) people in low-income countries could become newly deficient in vitamin A, and an additional 2.2 billion (1.2-2.5) already consuming below the average requirement would have further declines in vitamin A supplies. Corresponding estimates for folate were 173 million (134-225) and 1.23 billion (1.12-1.33). A 100% decline in pollinator services could reduce global fruit supplies by 22.9% (19.5-26.1), vegetables by 16.3% (15.1-17.7), and nuts and seeds by 22.1% (17.7-26.4), with significant heterogeneity by country. In sum, these dietary changes could increase global deaths yearly from non-communicable and malnutrition-related diseases by 1.42 million (1.38-1.48) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by 27.0 million (25.8-29.1), an increase of 2.7% for deaths and 1.1% for DALYs. A 50% loss of pollination services would be associated with 700,000 additional annual deaths and 13.2 million DALYs.Declines in animal pollinators could cause significant global health burdens from both non-communicable diseases and micronutrient deficiencies.INTERPRETATIONDeclines in animal pollinators could cause significant global health burdens from both non-communicable diseases and micronutrient deficiencies.Winslow Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.FUNDINGWinslow Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Singh, Gitanjali M Mozaffarian, Dariush Smith, Matthew R Myers, Samuel S |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Matthew R surname: Smith fullname: Smith, Matthew R organization: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, MA, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Gitanjali M surname: Singh fullname: Singh, Gitanjali M organization: Tufts University, Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy, Boston, MA, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Dariush surname: Mozaffarian fullname: Mozaffarian, Dariush organization: Tufts University, Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy, Boston, MA, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Samuel S surname: Myers fullname: Myers, Samuel S email: sam_myers@hms.harvard.edu organization: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, MA, USA |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26188748$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2015 Elsevier Ltd Elsevier Ltd Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright Elsevier Limited Nov 14, 2015 2015. Elsevier Ltd |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2015 Elsevier Ltd – notice: Elsevier Ltd – notice: Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. – notice: Copyright Elsevier Limited Nov 14, 2015 – notice: 2015. Elsevier Ltd |
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| Snippet | Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and health... Summary Background Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the... SummaryBackgroundAnthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the... Background Anthropogenic declines of animal pollinators and the associated effects on human nutrition are of growing concern. We quantified the nutritional and... |
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| SubjectTerms | Agricultural production Analysis Animals Anthropogenic factors Calories Cereals Charities Commodities Communicable diseases Crop diseases Crops Disease Estimates Fatalities Folic acid Folic acid in human nutrition Food Food intake Food Supply Fruits Global Health Heterogeneity Human nutrition Humans Insecta Internal Medicine Low income areas Low income groups Malnutrition Malnutrition - epidemiology Medical research Medicine, Experimental Models, Theoretical Mortality Nutrients Nutrition Nuts Pesticides Plant reproduction Pollination Pollinators Population Populations Public health Regions Retinene Risk assessment Seeds Studies Trends Vegetables Vitamin A Vitamin B World health |
| Title | Effects of decreases of animal pollinators on human nutrition and global health: a modelling analysis |
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