An Analysis of the Impact of Research and Development on Productivity Using Bayesian Model Averaging with a Reversible Jump Algorithm
A Bayesian model averaging approach to the estimation of lag structures is introduced and applied to assess the impact of (R&D) on agricultural productivity in the United States from 1889 to 1990. Lag and structural break coefficients are estimated using a reversible jump algorithm that traverse...
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| Published in | American journal of agricultural economics Vol. 92; no. 4; pp. 985 - 998 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Malden
Oxford University Press
01.07.2010
Oxford University press Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0002-9092 1467-8276 1467-8276 |
| DOI | 10.1093/ajae/aaq050 |
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| Abstract | A Bayesian model averaging approach to the estimation of lag structures is introduced and applied to assess the impact of (R&D) on agricultural productivity in the United States from 1889 to 1990. Lag and structural break coefficients are estimated using a reversible jump algorithm that traverses the model space. In addition to producing estimates and standard deviations for the coefficients, the probability that a given lag (or break) enters the model is estimated. The approach is extended to select models populated with gamma distributed lags of different frequencies. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that R&D positively drives productivity. Gamma lags are found to retain their usefulness in imposing a plausible structure on lag coefficients, and their role is enhanced through the use of model averaging. |
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| AbstractList | A Bayesian model averaging approach to the estimation of lag structures is introduced and applied to assess the impact of R&D on agricultural productivity in the United States from 1889 to 1990. Lag and structural break coefficients are estimated using a reversible jump algorithm that traverses the model space. In addition to producing estimates and standard deviations for the coefficients, the probability that a given lag (or break) enters the model is estimated. The approach is extended to select models populated with gamma distributed lags of different frequencies. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that R&D positively drives productivity. Gamma lags are found to retain their usefulness in imposing a plausible structure on lag coefficients, and their role is enhanced through the use of model averaging. Reprinted by permission of the American Agricultural Economics Association A Bayesian model averaging approach to the estimation of lag structures is introduced and applied to assess the impact of R&D on agricultural productivity in the United States from 1889 to 1990. Lag and structural break coefficients are estimated using a reversible jump algorithm that traverses the model space. In addition to producing estimates and standard deviations for the coefficients, the probability that a given lag (or break) enters the model is estimated. The approach is extended to select models populated with gamma distributed lags of different frequencies. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that R&D positively drives productivity. Gamma lags are found to retain their usefulness in imposing a plausible structure on lag coefficients, and their role is enhanced through the use of model averaging. A Bayesian model averaging approach to the estimation of lag structures is introduced and applied to assess the impact of (R&D) on agricultural productivity in the United States from 1889 to 1990. Lag and structural break coefficients are estimated using a reversible jump algorithm that traverses the model space. In addition to producing estimates and standard deviations for the coefficients, the probability that a given lag (or break) enters the model is estimated. The approach is extended to select models populated with gamma distributed lags of different frequencies. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that R&D positively drives productivity. Gamma lags are found to retain their usefulness in imposing a plausible structure on lag coefficients, and their role is enhanced through the use of model averaging. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] |
| Author | Rapsomanikis, George Balcombe, Kelvin |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Kelvin surname: Balcombe fullname: Balcombe, Kelvin organization: Kelvin Balcombe is a Reader, Department of Food Economics and Marketing, University of Reading. George Rapsomanikis is an economist, Trade and Markets Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations – sequence: 2 givenname: George surname: Rapsomanikis fullname: Rapsomanikis, George organization: Kelvin Balcombe is a Reader, Department of Food Economics and Marketing, University of Reading. George Rapsomanikis is an economist, Trade and Markets Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00195.x 10.1007/s11123-005-3040-x 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00316.x 10.2307/1241770 10.2307/2297468 10.1007/978-1-4612-1276-8 10.2202/1558-3708.1519 10.2307/1403615 10.1080/01621459.1993.10476353 10.1016/S0304-4076(00)00076-2 10.2307/1237038 10.1007/978-1-4615-0851-9_8 10.2307/1909382 10.1093/biomet/82.4.711 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00019.x |
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| Copyright | Copyright © Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 2010 The Author (2010). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org 2010 2010 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Copyright Oxford University Press, UK Jul 2010 |
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| References_xml | – year: 1985 – volume: 39 start-page: 73 year: 2008 end-page: 85 article-title: Modelling the Length and Shape of the R&D Lag: An Application to UK Agricultural Productivity publication-title: Agricultural Economics – volume: 100 start-page: 381 year: 2001 end-page: 427 article-title: Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging publication-title: Journal of Econometrics – volume: 63 start-page: 215 year: 1995 end-page: 232 article-title: Bayesian Graphical Models for Discrete Data publication-title: International Statistical Review – year: 1998 article-title: On the Relationship Between MCMC Model Uncertainty Methods publication-title: Dept Engineering, Technical Report CUED/F-INFENT/TR.305, Signal Processing Group, University of Cambridge – volume: 82 start-page: 711 year: 1995 end-page: 732 article-title: Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Computation and Bayesian and Bayesian Model Determination publication-title: Biometrika – volume: 52 start-page: 19 issue: 1 year: 1985 end-page: 35 article-title: Distributed Lags, Aggregation and Compounding: Some Econometric Implications publication-title: The Review of Economics Studies – year: 1998 article-title: Dynamics in the Creation and Depreciation of Knowledge and the Returns to Research publication-title: International Food Policy Research Institute – year: 1980 – volume: 71 start-page: 9 year: 1989 end-page: 19 article-title: Causal Relationships Between Public Sector Agricultural Research Expenditures and Output publication-title: American Journal of Agricultural Economics – volume: 88 start-page: 881 year: 1993 end-page: 889 article-title: Variable Selection via Gibbs Sampling publication-title: Journal of the American Statistical Association – year: 2002 – volume: 24 start-page: 49 year: 2005 end-page: 72 article-title: Measuring the Impact of R&D on Productivity from a Econometric Time Series Perspective publication-title: Journal of Productivity Analysis – year: 2003 – volume: 24 start-page: 127 year: 2001 end-page: 147 article-title: Structural and Productivity Change in U.S. Agriculture, 1950-82 publication-title: Agricultural Economics – year: 2000 – year: 1995 – volume: 25 start-page: 141 year: 2001 end-page: 152 article-title: Attribution and other problems in assessing the returns to agricultural R&D publication-title: Agricultural Economics – year: 1991 – year: 1993 – volume: 35 start-page: 16 issue: 1 year: 1967 end-page: 49 article-title: Distributed Lags and Survey publication-title: Econometrica – volume: 12 issue: 3 year: 2008 article-title: Bayesian Simultaneous Determination of Structural Breaks and Lag Lengths publication-title: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics – volume: 49 start-page: 1415 year: 1968 end-page: 1425 article-title: The Contribution of Agricultural Research and Extension to Production publication-title: Journal of Farm Economics – ident: e_1_2_8_4_1 doi: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00195.x – ident: e_1_2_8_5_1 doi: 10.1007/s11123-005-3040-x – ident: e_1_2_8_23_1 doi: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00316.x – year: 1998 ident: e_1_2_8_11_1 article-title: On the Relationship Between MCMC Model Uncertainty Methods publication-title: Dept Engineering, Technical Report CUED/F-INFENT/TR.305, Signal Processing Group, University of Cambridge – volume-title: Bayesian Econometrics year: 2003 ident: e_1_2_8_19_1 – ident: e_1_2_8_21_1 doi: 10.2307/1241770 – volume-title: Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics. A Comparative Approach year: 1995 ident: e_1_2_8_22_1 – volume-title: New Developments in Productivity Measurement and Analysis year: 1980 ident: e_1_2_8_14_1 – ident: e_1_2_8_6_1 – ident: e_1_2_8_24_1 doi: 10.2307/2297468 – ident: e_1_2_8_7_1 doi: 10.1007/978-1-4612-1276-8 – ident: e_1_2_8_3_1 – ident: e_1_2_8_17_1 doi: 10.2202/1558-3708.1519 – ident: e_1_2_8_20_1 doi: 10.2307/1403615 – ident: e_1_2_8_10_1 doi: 10.1080/01621459.1993.10476353 – volume-title: Science for Agriculture year: 1993 ident: e_1_2_8_15_1 – ident: e_1_2_8_9_1 doi: 10.1016/S0304-4076(00)00076-2 – ident: e_1_2_8_8_1 doi: 10.2307/1237038 – volume-title: The Theory and Practice of Econometrics year: 1985 ident: e_1_2_8_18_1 – ident: e_1_2_8_25_1 doi: 10.1007/978-1-4615-0851-9_8 – ident: e_1_2_8_13_1 doi: 10.2307/1909382 – year: 1998 ident: e_1_2_8_2_1 article-title: Dynamics in the Creation and Depreciation of Knowledge and the Returns to Research publication-title: International Food Policy Research Institute – ident: e_1_2_8_12_1 doi: 10.1093/biomet/82.4.711 – ident: e_1_2_8_16_1 doi: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00019.x |
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| SubjectTerms | 1889-1990 Agrarwissenschaft Agricultural development Agricultural economics Agricultural production Agricultural productivity agriculture Agronomy Algorithms Bayesian Bayesian analysis Bayesian method Bayesian networks Bayesian theory Breaking C22 C51 Economic models Economics Empirical evidence Gestation period Impact analysis Landwirtschaft Mathematical models Parametric models probability Productivity Produktivität R&D Research & development Research and development Reversible reversible jump Standard deviation Studies United States USA Usefulness |
| Title | An Analysis of the Impact of Research and Development on Productivity Using Bayesian Model Averaging with a Reversible Jump Algorithm |
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