中国西南地区石漠化对玉米旱灾风险的影响

为做好喀斯特地区农业旱灾风险防范，揭示石漠化程度对作物旱灾风险的影响机制。该文基于灾害系统理论，引入基于物理过程的农作物模型EPIC（erosion productivity impact calculator），考虑西南喀斯特地貌背景，以水分胁迫累加值作为致灾因子，与玉米产量损失进行脆弱性曲线模拟，基于此开展不同石漠化程度区玉米旱灾产量的致灾和成灾损失风险评估。结果显示，中国西南喀斯特地区玉米受旱减产的风险呈现从西北到东南增加的趋势。在4种风险水平（2、5、10、20年一遇）下，面积占比最大的产量损失率主要集中分布在0.4～0.5区间内，这主要由地形地势、降水差异和承灾体的脆弱性所共同决定的...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in农业工程学报 Vol. 33; no. 23; pp. 172 - 178
Main Author 潘东华;贾慧聪;陈方;贺原惠子
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 民政部国家减灾中心,北京,100124%中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所中国科学院数字地球重点实验室,北京,100094 2017
Subjects
干旱;遥感;灾害;石漠化;EPIC模型;玉米旱灾;西南喀斯特地区
disasters
remote sensing
maize drought
Southwest Karst regions
遥感
玉米旱灾
干旱
西南喀斯特地区
drought
rocky desertification
灾害
石漠化
EPIC模型
EPIC crop model
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ISSN1002-6819
DOI10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.23.022

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Summary:为做好喀斯特地区农业旱灾风险防范，揭示石漠化程度对作物旱灾风险的影响机制。该文基于灾害系统理论，引入基于物理过程的农作物模型EPIC（erosion productivity impact calculator），考虑西南喀斯特地貌背景，以水分胁迫累加值作为致灾因子，与玉米产量损失进行脆弱性曲线模拟，基于此开展不同石漠化程度区玉米旱灾产量的致灾和成灾损失风险评估。结果显示，中国西南喀斯特地区玉米受旱减产的风险呈现从西北到东南增加的趋势。在4种风险水平（2、5、10、20年一遇）下，面积占比最大的产量损失率主要集中分布在0.4～0.5区间内，这主要由地形地势、降水差异和承灾体的脆弱性所共同决定的；受石漠化影响，土层厚度为40cm时，4种风险水平对应的减产率分别为5.8%、6.1%、7.8%、8.2%；该研究可以为中国第三大玉米主产区-西南山地玉米区的农业灾害预警和保障国家粮食安全提供重要的科学依据和技术支持。
Bibliography:Frequent drought stress was one of the major factors limiting the crop growth and distribution in the Karst region of Southwest China.In order to prevent the risk of agricultural drought in Karst region and reveal the impact mechanism of rocky desertification degree on the crop drought risk,based on the disaster system theory and the EPIC(erosion productivity impact calculator)crop model,the risk assessment of hazard-inducing factors and disaster loss of maize drought in different areas of rocky desertification was carried out.Taking1km grid as the evaluation unit,2scenarios were set up in simulation during the period of1966-2010.The Scenario S1was completely satisfied with the moisture requirement of maize,the Scenario S2was completely rain fed,and the other parameters were the same.The difference in maize yield between the2scenarios was considered to be the drought loss due to water stress.Considering the Karst topography in Southwest China,taking the accumulated value of water stress during the whole growt
ISSN:1002-6819
DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.23.022