Competing-risk analysis of coronavirus disease 2019 in-hospital mortality in a Northern Italian centre from SMAtteo COvid19 REgistry (SMACORE)
An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The aim of the study is to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and discharge in a cohort of Lombardy patients with COVID-19. All consecutive hos...
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Published in | Scientific reports Vol. 11; no. 1; pp. 1137 - 10 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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London
Nature Publishing Group UK
13.01.2021
Nature Publishing Group Nature Portfolio |
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Online Access | Get full text |
ISSN | 2045-2322 2045-2322 |
DOI | 10.1038/s41598-020-80679-2 |
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Abstract | An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The aim of the study is to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and discharge in a cohort of Lombardy patients with COVID-19. All consecutive hospitalised patients from February 21st to March 30th, 2020, with confirmed COVID-19 from the IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Lombardy, Italy, were included. In-hospital mortality and discharge were evaluated by competing risk analysis. The Fine and Gray model was fitted in order to estimate the effect of covariates on the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) for in-hospital mortality and discharge. 426 adult patients [median age 68 (IQR 56 to 77 years)] were admitted with confirmed COVID-19 over a 5-week period; 292 (69%) were male. By 21 April 2020, 141 (33%) of these patients had died, 239 (56%) patients had been discharged and 46 (11%) were still hospitalised. Among these 46 patients, updated as of 30 May, 2020, 5 (10.9%) had died, 8 (17.4%) were still in ICU, 12 (26.1%) were transferred to lower intensity care units and 21 (45.7%) were discharged. Regression on the CIFs for in-hospital mortality showed that older age, male sex, number of comorbidities and hospital admission after March 4th were independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Older age, male sex and number of comorbidities definitively predicted in-hospital mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. |
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AbstractList | An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The aim of the study is to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and discharge in a cohort of Lombardy patients with COVID-19. All consecutive hospitalised patients from February 21st to March 30th, 2020, with confirmed COVID-19 from the IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Lombardy, Italy, were included. In-hospital mortality and discharge were evaluated by competing risk analysis. The Fine and Gray model was fitted in order to estimate the effect of covariates on the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) for in-hospital mortality and discharge. 426 adult patients [median age 68 (IQR 56 to 77 years)] were admitted with confirmed COVID-19 over a 5-week period; 292 (69%) were male. By 21 April 2020, 141 (33%) of these patients had died, 239 (56%) patients had been discharged and 46 (11%) were still hospitalised. Among these 46 patients, updated as of 30 May, 2020, 5 (10.9%) had died, 8 (17.4%) were still in ICU, 12 (26.1%) were transferred to lower intensity care units and 21 (45.7%) were discharged. Regression on the CIFs for in-hospital mortality showed that older age, male sex, number of comorbidities and hospital admission after March 4th were independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Older age, male sex and number of comorbidities definitively predicted in-hospital mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The aim of the study is to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and discharge in a cohort of Lombardy patients with COVID-19. All consecutive hospitalised patients from February 21st to March 30th, 2020, with confirmed COVID-19 from the IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Lombardy, Italy, were included. In-hospital mortality and discharge were evaluated by competing risk analysis. The Fine and Gray model was fitted in order to estimate the effect of covariates on the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) for in-hospital mortality and discharge. 426 adult patients [median age 68 (IQR 56 to 77 years)] were admitted with confirmed COVID-19 over a 5-week period; 292 (69%) were male. By 21 April 2020, 141 (33%) of these patients had died, 239 (56%) patients had been discharged and 46 (11%) were still hospitalised. Among these 46 patients, updated as of 30 May, 2020, 5 (10.9%) had died, 8 (17.4%) were still in ICU, 12 (26.1%) were transferred to lower intensity care units and 21 (45.7%) were discharged. Regression on the CIFs for in-hospital mortality showed that older age, male sex, number of comorbidities and hospital admission after March 4th were independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Older age, male sex and number of comorbidities definitively predicted in-hospital mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19.An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The aim of the study is to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and discharge in a cohort of Lombardy patients with COVID-19. All consecutive hospitalised patients from February 21st to March 30th, 2020, with confirmed COVID-19 from the IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Lombardy, Italy, were included. In-hospital mortality and discharge were evaluated by competing risk analysis. The Fine and Gray model was fitted in order to estimate the effect of covariates on the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) for in-hospital mortality and discharge. 426 adult patients [median age 68 (IQR 56 to 77 years)] were admitted with confirmed COVID-19 over a 5-week period; 292 (69%) were male. By 21 April 2020, 141 (33%) of these patients had died, 239 (56%) patients had been discharged and 46 (11%) were still hospitalised. Among these 46 patients, updated as of 30 May, 2020, 5 (10.9%) had died, 8 (17.4%) were still in ICU, 12 (26.1%) were transferred to lower intensity care units and 21 (45.7%) were discharged. Regression on the CIFs for in-hospital mortality showed that older age, male sex, number of comorbidities and hospital admission after March 4th were independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Older age, male sex and number of comorbidities definitively predicted in-hospital mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The aim of the study is to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and discharge in a cohort of Lombardy patients with COVID-19. All consecutive hospitalised patients from February 21st to March 30th, 2020, with confirmed COVID-19 from the IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Lombardy, Italy, were included. In-hospital mortality and discharge were evaluated by competing risk analysis. The Fine and Gray model was fitted in order to estimate the effect of covariates on the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) for in-hospital mortality and discharge. 426 adult patients [median age 68 (IQR 56 to 77 years)] were admitted with confirmed COVID-19 over a 5-week period; 292 (69%) were male. By 21 April 2020, 141 (33%) of these patients had died, 239 (56%) patients had been discharged and 46 (11%) were still hospitalised. Among these 46 patients, updated as of 30 May, 2020, 5 (10.9%) had died, 8 (17.4%) were still in ICU, 12 (26.1%) were transferred to lower intensity care units and 21 (45.7%) were discharged. Regression on the CIFs for in-hospital mortality showed that older age, male sex, number of comorbidities and hospital admission after March 4th were independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Older age, male sex and number of comorbidities definitively predicted in-hospital mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Abstract An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The aim of the study is to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and discharge in a cohort of Lombardy patients with COVID-19. All consecutive hospitalised patients from February 21st to March 30th, 2020, with confirmed COVID-19 from the IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Lombardy, Italy, were included. In-hospital mortality and discharge were evaluated by competing risk analysis. The Fine and Gray model was fitted in order to estimate the effect of covariates on the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) for in-hospital mortality and discharge. 426 adult patients [median age 68 (IQR 56 to 77 years)] were admitted with confirmed COVID-19 over a 5-week period; 292 (69%) were male. By 21 April 2020, 141 (33%) of these patients had died, 239 (56%) patients had been discharged and 46 (11%) were still hospitalised. Among these 46 patients, updated as of 30 May, 2020, 5 (10.9%) had died, 8 (17.4%) were still in ICU, 12 (26.1%) were transferred to lower intensity care units and 21 (45.7%) were discharged. Regression on the CIFs for in-hospital mortality showed that older age, male sex, number of comorbidities and hospital admission after March 4th were independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Older age, male sex and number of comorbidities definitively predicted in-hospital mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. |
ArticleNumber | 1137 |
Author | Celsa, Ciro Biscarini, Simona Roda, Silvia Seminari, Elena Attanasio, Massimo Cammà, Calogero Pieri, Teresa Chiara Di Matteo, Angela Sambo, Margherita Sachs, Michele Battaglia, Salvatore Enea, Marco Asperges, Erika Di Filippo, Alessandro Colaneri, Marta Novati, Stefano Sacchi, Paolo Valsecchi, Pietro Lupi, Matteo Maiocchi, Laura Gallazzi, Ilaria Zuccaro, Valentina Bruno, Raffaele |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Valentina surname: Zuccaro fullname: Zuccaro, Valentina organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 2 givenname: Ciro surname: Celsa fullname: Celsa, Ciro organization: Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Health Promotion, Mother and Child Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties, University of Palermo, Doctoral Programme in Oncology and Experimental Surgery, Department of Surgical, Oncological and Stomatological Disciplines, University of Palermo – sequence: 3 givenname: Margherita surname: Sambo fullname: Sambo, Margherita organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 4 givenname: Salvatore surname: Battaglia fullname: Battaglia, Salvatore organization: Department of Economics, Business and Statistics, University of Palermo – sequence: 5 givenname: Paolo surname: Sacchi fullname: Sacchi, Paolo organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 6 givenname: Simona surname: Biscarini fullname: Biscarini, Simona organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 7 givenname: Pietro surname: Valsecchi fullname: Valsecchi, Pietro organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 8 givenname: Teresa Chiara surname: Pieri fullname: Pieri, Teresa Chiara organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 9 givenname: Ilaria surname: Gallazzi fullname: Gallazzi, Ilaria organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 10 givenname: Marta surname: Colaneri fullname: Colaneri, Marta organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 11 givenname: Michele surname: Sachs fullname: Sachs, Michele organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 12 givenname: Silvia surname: Roda fullname: Roda, Silvia organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 13 givenname: Erika surname: Asperges fullname: Asperges, Erika organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 14 givenname: Matteo surname: Lupi fullname: Lupi, Matteo organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 15 givenname: Alessandro surname: Di Filippo fullname: Di Filippo, Alessandro organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 16 givenname: Elena surname: Seminari fullname: Seminari, Elena organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 17 givenname: Angela surname: Di Matteo fullname: Di Matteo, Angela organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 18 givenname: Stefano surname: Novati fullname: Novati, Stefano organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 19 givenname: Laura surname: Maiocchi fullname: Maiocchi, Laura organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia – sequence: 20 givenname: Marco surname: Enea fullname: Enea, Marco organization: Department of Economics, Business and Statistics, University of Palermo – sequence: 21 givenname: Massimo surname: Attanasio fullname: Attanasio, Massimo organization: Department of Health Promotion, Mother and Child Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties, University of Palermo – sequence: 22 givenname: Calogero surname: Cammà fullname: Cammà, Calogero organization: Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Health Promotion, Mother and Child Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties, University of Palermo – sequence: 23 givenname: Raffaele surname: Bruno fullname: Bruno, Raffaele email: raffaele.bruno@unipv.it organization: U.O.C. Malattie Infettive I Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Università di Pavia, Department of Clinical, Surgical, Diagnostic, and Pediatric Sciences, University of Pavia |
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Care Med.20204844514581:CAS:528:DC%2BB3cXltlKntL4%3D10.1097/CCM.0000000000004207 S Jaillon (80679_CR17) 2019; 56 JP Fine (80679_CR31) 1999; 94 ME Charlson (80679_CR6) 1987; 40 80679_CR26 80679_CR24 80679_CR29 F Fabbian (80679_CR7) 2017; 40 C Gao (80679_CR30) 2020; 48 MJ Glesby (80679_CR21) 1996; 124 80679_CR22 80679_CR23 H Putter (80679_CR5) 2007; 26 Z Zheng (80679_CR13) 2020; 81 H Shi (80679_CR25) 2020; 20 80679_CR9 80679_CR1 80679_CR16 ER DeLong (80679_CR32) 1988; 44 80679_CR19 80679_CR4 80679_CR3 J Yang (80679_CR14) 2020; 94 VM Corman (80679_CR27) 2020; 25 80679_CR18 X Fang (80679_CR15) 2020; 12 S Suissa (80679_CR20) 2012; 35 80679_CR12 A Remuzzi (80679_CR2) 2020; 395 80679_CR10 M Singer (80679_CR28) 2016; 315 SM Opal (80679_CR11) 2025; 41 F Zhou (80679_CR8) 2020; 395 |
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Med.201740374210.1016/j.ejim.2017.02.002 – reference: ShiHRadiological findings from 81 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: A descriptive studyLancet Infect. Dis.20202044254341:CAS:528:DC%2BB3cXjvFWhtbs%3D10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30086-4 – reference: CormanVMDetection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCREuro Surveill.2020253200004510.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000045 – volume: 25 start-page: 2000045 issue: 3 year: 2020 ident: 80679_CR27 publication-title: Euro Surveill. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000045 – volume: 395 start-page: 1225 issue: 10231 year: 2020 ident: 80679_CR2 publication-title: Lancet doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30627-9 – volume: 94 start-page: 91 year: 2020 ident: 80679_CR14 publication-title: Int. J. Infect. 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Snippet | An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The aim of... Abstract An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The... |
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Title | Competing-risk analysis of coronavirus disease 2019 in-hospital mortality in a Northern Italian centre from SMAtteo COvid19 REgistry (SMACORE) |
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