Why do monetary policies matter? An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model
The following is an examination of experiments using an overlapping generations model, where inflation is determined by the monetary policy and by the amount of average saving within each period. A new experimental setup is used that allows us to observe more details in the process of expectation fo...
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| Published in | Journal of monetary economics Vol. 46; no. 2; pp. 315 - 343 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Amsterdam
Elsevier B.V
01.10.2000
Elsevier North-Holland Pub. Co Elsevier Sequoia S.A |
| Series | Journal of Monetary Economics |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0304-3932 1873-1295 |
| DOI | 10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00030-1 |
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| Abstract | The following is an examination of experiments using an overlapping generations model, where inflation is determined by the monetary policy and by the amount of average saving within each period. A new experimental setup is used that allows us to observe more details in the process of expectation forming and to separate this process from the actual saving process. In contrast to experimental findings by Lim, Prescott, Sunder; Marimon, Spear, Sunder; and Marimon, Sunder we have found that (1) agents do not form first-order adaptive expectations; (2) subjects ‘over-save’ for precautionary reasons; and as a result (3) the so-called Friedman conjecture holds, i.e. monetary policies which are equivalent in static equilibrium exhibit different levels and different volatility with regard to inflation in the experiment. This may generate important policy trade-offs between monetary regimes. We then discuss our findings and relate them to current research on adaptive learning and the role it may have in ranking alternative monetary policies. |
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| AbstractList | An examination is made of experiments using an overlapping generations model, where inflation is determined by the monetary policy and by the amount of average saving within each period. A new experimental setup is used that allows more details to be observed in the process of expectation forming. It also allows this process to be separated from the actual saving process. The following is an examination of experiments using an overlapping generations model, where inflation is determined by the monetary policy and by the amount of average saving within each period. A new experimental setup is used that allows us to observe more details in the process of expectation forming and to separate this process from the actual saving process. In contrast to experimental findings by Lim, Prescott, Sunder; Marimon, Spear, Sunder; and Marimon, Sunder we have found that (1) agents do not form first-order adaptive expectations; (2) subjects ‘over-save’ for precautionary reasons; and as a result (3) the so-called Friedman conjecture holds, i.e. monetary policies which are equivalent in static equilibrium exhibit different levels and different volatility with regard to inflation in the experiment. This may generate important policy trade-offs between monetary regimes. We then discuss our findings and relate them to current research on adaptive learning and the role it may have in ranking alternative monetary policies. |
| Author | Kirchkamp, Oliver Bernasconi, Michele |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Michele surname: Bernasconi fullname: Bernasconi, Michele organization: Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, Università di Napoli I-80126 Napoli, Italy – sequence: 2 givenname: Oliver surname: Kirchkamp fullname: Kirchkamp, Oliver email: oliver@kirchkamp.de organization: SFB 504, Universität Mannheim, D-63131 Mannheim, Germany |
| BackLink | http://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeemoneco/v_3a46_3ay_3a2000_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a315-343.htm$$DView record in RePEc |
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| Cites_doi | 10.2307/1992775 10.1006/jeth.1993.1059 10.1016/0167-2231(95)90041-1 10.2307/2937791 10.1016/0022-0531(70)90038-4 10.1086/260579 10.2307/2235016 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01200-8 10.2307/2951494 10.1007/BF01175874 10.1007/BF01211121 10.1016/0022-0531(89)90032-X |
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| References_xml | – year: 1957 ident: BIB9 publication-title: The Theory of the Consumption Function – year: 1993 ident: BIB22 publication-title: Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics – volume: 35 start-page: 509 year: 1995 end-page: 518 ident: BIB12 article-title: Bounded rationality in Macroeconomics. A review essay publication-title: Journal of Monetary Economics – volume: 61 start-page: 1073 year: 1993 end-page: 1107 ident: BIB17 article-title: Indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world: experimental evidence publication-title: Econometrica – reference: Farmer, R.E., 1996. Macroeconomics and learning. Mimeo. – volume: 2 start-page: 225 year: 1970 end-page: 243 ident: BIB21 article-title: Increasing risk: 1. 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| SubjectTerms | Economic models Expectations Experiments Inflation Inflation expectations Monetary economics Monetary policy OLG-model Policy analysis Savings Stability Studies |
| Title | Why do monetary policies matter? An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model |
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