林业生态高水平保护与林业经济高质量发展协同关系评价及预测
立足高水平保护与高质量发展协同视角，以林业为切入点，运用生态足迹模型、熵值法分别评价2007—2021年林业生态高水平保护成效与林业经济高质量发展水平，通过耦合协调度模型识别二者协同关系类型，并借助灰色预测模型对二者之间的耦合协调度进行预测分析。结果显示：2007—2021年，中国林业生态系统始终处在生态盈余和强可持续状态，林业生态建设取得积极成效，林业生态高水平保护成效持续提升面临动力不足的现实困境；中国林业经济高质量发展水平整体呈现波动式增长态势，要素驱动力和环境承载力分别对林业经济高质量发展具有显著的长板、短板效应，而森林减伐、限伐特别是“禁伐”政策在一定时期内对林业经济发展造成冲击；林...
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| Published in | 林业经济问题 Vol. 44; no. 3; pp. 284 - 294 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
福建农林大学
20.05.2024
中国林业经济学会 东北林业大学 经济管理学院,哈尔滨 150040 |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1005-9709 |
| DOI | 10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.20240030 |
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| Abstract | 立足高水平保护与高质量发展协同视角，以林业为切入点，运用生态足迹模型、熵值法分别评价2007—2021年林业生态高水平保护成效与林业经济高质量发展水平，通过耦合协调度模型识别二者协同关系类型，并借助灰色预测模型对二者之间的耦合协调度进行预测分析。结果显示：2007—2021年，中国林业生态系统始终处在生态盈余和强可持续状态，林业生态建设取得积极成效，林业生态高水平保护成效持续提升面临动力不足的现实困境；中国林业经济高质量发展水平整体呈现波动式增长态势，要素驱动力和环境承载力分别对林业经济高质量发展具有显著的长板、短板效应，而森林减伐、限伐特别是“禁伐”政策在一定时期内对林业经济发展造成冲击；林业生态高水平保护与林业经济高质量发展协同关系持续向好，二者之间的耦合发展效应优于协调发展效应；预测至2030年，中国林业生态高水平保护与林业经济高质量发展之间的协同关系将长期保持优等协调发展水平。 |
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| AbstractList | F326.23; 立足高水平保护与高质量发展协同视角,以林业为切入点,运用生态足迹模型、熵值法分别评价2007-2021 年林业生态高水平保护成效与林业经济高质量发展水平,通过耦合协调度模型识别二者协同关系类型,并借助灰色预测模型对二者之间的耦合协调度进行预测分析.结果显示:2007-2021 年,中国林业生态系统始终处在生态盈余和强可持续状态,林业生态建设取得积极成效,林业生态高水平保护成效持续提升面临动力不足的现实困境;中国林业经济高质量发展水平整体呈现波动式增长态势,要素驱动力和环境承载力分别对林业经济高质量发展具有显著的长板、短板效应,而森林减伐、限伐特别是"禁伐"政策在一定时期内对林业经济发展造成冲击;林业生态高水平保护与林业经济高质量发展协同关系持续向好,二者之间的耦合发展效应优于协调发展效应;预测至2030 年,中国林业生态高水平保护与林业经济高质量发展之间的协同关系将长期保持优等协调发展水平. 立足高水平保护与高质量发展协同视角，以林业为切入点，运用生态足迹模型、熵值法分别评价2007—2021年林业生态高水平保护成效与林业经济高质量发展水平，通过耦合协调度模型识别二者协同关系类型，并借助灰色预测模型对二者之间的耦合协调度进行预测分析。结果显示：2007—2021年，中国林业生态系统始终处在生态盈余和强可持续状态，林业生态建设取得积极成效，林业生态高水平保护成效持续提升面临动力不足的现实困境；中国林业经济高质量发展水平整体呈现波动式增长态势，要素驱动力和环境承载力分别对林业经济高质量发展具有显著的长板、短板效应，而森林减伐、限伐特别是“禁伐”政策在一定时期内对林业经济发展造成冲击；林业生态高水平保护与林业经济高质量发展协同关系持续向好，二者之间的耦合发展效应优于协调发展效应；预测至2030年，中国林业生态高水平保护与林业经济高质量发展之间的协同关系将长期保持优等协调发展水平。 |
| Abstract_FL | ⑴ Background——Realizing coordinated development of ecology and economy has become a new driving force for improving the quality of green economy development and promoting modernization.The existing resear-ches are more inclined to make a single evaluation of the synergistic relationship between high-level protection of forestry ecology and high-quality development of forestry economy in a specific period,lack the judgment of the long-term change trend of this relationship and the discussion on the specific issues such as the change of forestry policies and the optimization of forestry systems according to the trend.
⑵ Methods——The paper first analyzed the rationality and necessity of the coordinated development of high-level protection of forestry ecology and high-quality development of forestry economy.Then,from the per-spective of synergy between high-level protection and high-quality development,this paper evaluated the effect of high-level protection of forestry ecology and the level of high-quality development of forestry economy from 2007 to 2021 by using ecological footprint model and entropy method,and identified the types of synergistic relation-ship between the two through coupling coordination degree model.Finally,the gray prediction model was used to predict and analyze the coupling coordination degree between them.
⑶Results——First,from 2007 to 2021,China's forestry ecosystem has always been in a state of ecological surplus and strong sustainability,and has achieved positive results in the construction of forestry ecology.Sec-ond,the development level of China's forestry economy shows a fluctuating growth trend on the whole from 2007 to 2021.Factor driving force has a significant long-board effect on the high-quality development of forestry econo-my,while environmental carrying capacity has a significant short-board effect on the high-quality development of forestry economy.The policy of reducing logging and limiting logging,especially the policy of"prohibiting log-ging",has had a certain impact on the high-quality development of forestry economy in a certain period of time.Third,from 2007 to 2021,the synergistic relationship between high-level protection of forestry ecology and high-quality development of forestry economy in China continues to improve,and the coupling development effect be-tween the two is better than the coordinated development effect.Fourth,it is predicted that by 2030,the syner-gistic relationship between high-level protection of forestry ecology and high-quality development of forestry econ-omy in China will maintain an excellent level of coordinated development for a long time.
⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The level of high-quality development of China's forestry economy shows a trend of fluctuating growth on the whole.Factor driving force and environmental carrying capacity have significant long-board and short-board effects on the level of high-quality development of forestry economy,re-spectively.In addition,forest logging reduction and limiting,especially the policy of"forbidden logging",have caused a certain impact on the development of forestry economy in a certain period of time.With the improvement of the level of forestry ecological industrialization,the impact of this kind of impact is gradually alleviated.The synergistic relationship between high-level protection of forestry ecology and high-quality development of forestry economy continues to improve.It is predicted that by 2030,the synergistic relationship between high-level pro-tection of forestry ecology and high-quality development of forestry economy in China will maintain an excellent level of coordinated development for a long time.In order to achieve overall and balanced development,it is nec-essary to pay attention to and support the transformation and upgrading of forestry economy and promote the culti-vation and development of forestry ecological economy.Under the premise of consolidating the effect of forestry ecological protection,we must adhere to the development concept of green economy,explore the new impetus for the transformation and upgrading of forestry economy,and deepen the practice paths of forestry ecological indus-trialization innovation,so as to continuously improve the synergistic relationship between forestry ecological pro-tection and forestry economic development. |
| Author | 禹芊蕾 韩文茜 朱震锋 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 东北林业大学 经济管理学院,哈尔滨 150040 |
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| Author_FL | ZHU Zhenfeng HAN Wenqian YU Qianlei |
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| Keywords | 高质量发展 协同发展 灰色预测模型 高水平保护 生态产业化 林业 gray prediction model high-level protection ecological industrialization forestry coordinated de-velopment high-quality development |
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