A transmission-virulence evolutionary trade-off explains attenuation of HIV-1 in Uganda

Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an ep...

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Published ineLife Vol. 5
Main Authors Blanquart, François, Grabowski, Mary Kate, Herbeck, Joshua, Nalugoda, Fred, Serwadda, David, Eller, Michael A, Robb, Merlin L, Gray, Ronald, Kigozi, Godfrey, Laeyendecker, Oliver, Lythgoe, Katrina A, Nakigozi, Gertrude, Quinn, Thomas C, Reynolds, Steven J, Wawer, Maria J, Fraser, Christophe
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England eLife Science Publications, Ltd 05.11.2016
eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Subjects
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN2050-084X
2050-084X
DOI10.7554/eLife.20492

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Abstract Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals.
AbstractList Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals.
Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals. DOI:
Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20492.001
Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20492.001
Audience Academic
Author Grabowski, Mary Kate
Robb, Merlin L
Blanquart, François
Serwadda, David
Kigozi, Godfrey
Lythgoe, Katrina A
Quinn, Thomas C
Nalugoda, Fred
Eller, Michael A
Laeyendecker, Oliver
Reynolds, Steven J
Herbeck, Joshua
Fraser, Christophe
Gray, Ronald
Nakigozi, Gertrude
Wawer, Maria J
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Keywords global health
epidemiology
quantitative genetics
evolutionary biology
selection
viral evolution
adaptation
genomics
virus
transmission-virulence trade-off
Language English
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PublicationYear 2016
Publisher eLife Science Publications, Ltd
eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Publisher_xml – name: eLife Science Publications, Ltd
– name: eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
– name: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
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Snippet Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but...
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SubjectTerms Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
adaptation
AIDS
Asymptomatic infection
Biological Evolution
Epidemiology
Epidemiology and Global Health
Evolution
Generalized linear models
Genetic Fitness - genetics
Genomics and Evolutionary Biology
Health aspects
Health sciences
HIV
HIV Infections - epidemiology
HIV Infections - genetics
HIV Infections - virology
HIV-1 - classification
HIV-1 - genetics
HIV-1 - pathogenicity
Host-Pathogen Interactions - genetics
Human immunodeficiency virus
Humans
Hypotheses
Infections
Infectious diseases
Models, Biological
Observations
Pathogens
Public health
quantitative genetics
Reproductive fitness
selection
transmission-virulence trade-off
Trends
Uganda - epidemiology
viral evolution
Viral Load - genetics
Virulence
Virulence (Microbiology)
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Title A transmission-virulence evolutionary trade-off explains attenuation of HIV-1 in Uganda
URI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27815945
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1953313097
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1836737445
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC5115872
https://doaj.org/article/b9bd1a3349ac4d3a8a65f30215f2f85f
Volume 5
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