A transmission-virulence evolutionary trade-off explains attenuation of HIV-1 in Uganda
Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an ep...
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Published in | eLife Vol. 5 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
England
eLife Science Publications, Ltd
05.11.2016
eLife Sciences Publications Ltd eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd |
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Online Access | Get full text |
ISSN | 2050-084X 2050-084X |
DOI | 10.7554/eLife.20492 |
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Abstract | Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals. |
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AbstractList | Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals. Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals. DOI: Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20492.001 Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20492.001 |
Audience | Academic |
Author | Grabowski, Mary Kate Robb, Merlin L Blanquart, François Serwadda, David Kigozi, Godfrey Lythgoe, Katrina A Quinn, Thomas C Nalugoda, Fred Eller, Michael A Laeyendecker, Oliver Reynolds, Steven J Herbeck, Joshua Fraser, Christophe Gray, Ronald Nakigozi, Gertrude Wawer, Maria J |
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Copyright | COPYRIGHT 2016 eLife Science Publications, Ltd. 2016, Blanquart et al. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ ) (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. 2016, Blanquart et al 2016 Blanquart et al |
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Keywords | global health epidemiology quantitative genetics evolutionary biology selection viral evolution adaptation genomics virus transmission-virulence trade-off |
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SubjectTerms | Acquired immune deficiency syndrome adaptation AIDS Asymptomatic infection Biological Evolution Epidemiology Epidemiology and Global Health Evolution Generalized linear models Genetic Fitness - genetics Genomics and Evolutionary Biology Health aspects Health sciences HIV HIV Infections - epidemiology HIV Infections - genetics HIV Infections - virology HIV-1 - classification HIV-1 - genetics HIV-1 - pathogenicity Host-Pathogen Interactions - genetics Human immunodeficiency virus Humans Hypotheses Infections Infectious diseases Models, Biological Observations Pathogens Public health quantitative genetics Reproductive fitness selection transmission-virulence trade-off Trends Uganda - epidemiology viral evolution Viral Load - genetics Virulence Virulence (Microbiology) |
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Title | A transmission-virulence evolutionary trade-off explains attenuation of HIV-1 in Uganda |
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