Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness: a model-based analysis

A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy—ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)—are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a pop...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe Lancet (British edition) Vol. 372; no. 9635; pp. 314 - 320
Main Authors Wilson, David P, Law, Matthew G, Grulich, Andrew E, Cooper, David A, Kaldor, John M
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Elsevier Ltd 26.07.2008
Elsevier Limited
Subjects
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
AIDS
Anti-Retroviral Agents - therapeutic use
Antiretroviral agents
Antiretroviral drugs
Couples
Female
Heterosexuality
HIV
HIV Infections - blood
HIV Infections - drug therapy
HIV Infections - transmission
Human immunodeficiency virus
Humans
Internal Medicine
Male
Mens health
Models, Theoretical
Probability
Risk-Taking
RNA, Viral - blood
Sexual Behavior
Sexually transmitted diseases
STD
Studies
Viral Load
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0140-6736
1474-547X
1474-547X
DOI10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61115-0

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Abstract A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy—ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)—are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status. Assuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0·0022 (uncertainty bounds 0·0008–0·0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0·0043 (0·0016–0·0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0·043 (0·0159–0·1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80–564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159–1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477–6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use. Our analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence. Australian Research Council.
AbstractList A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy-ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)-are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level.BACKGROUNDA consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy-ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)-are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level.We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status.METHODSWe used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status.Assuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0.0022 (uncertainty bounds 0.0008-0.0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0.0043 (0.0016-0.0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0.043 (0.0159-0.1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80-564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159-1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477-6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use.FINDINGSAssuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0.0022 (uncertainty bounds 0.0008-0.0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0.0043 (0.0016-0.0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0.043 (0.0159-0.1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80-564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159-1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477-6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use.Our analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence.INTERPRETATIONOur analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence.Australian Research Council.FUNDINGAustralian Research Council.
A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy—ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)—are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status. Assuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0·0022 (uncertainty bounds 0·0008–0·0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0·0043 (0·0016–0·0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0·043 (0·0159–0·1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80–564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159–1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477–6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use. Our analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence. Australian Research Council.
A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy-ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)-are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status. Assuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0.0022 (uncertainty bounds 0.0008-0.0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0.0043 (0.0016-0.0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0.043 (0.0159-0.1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80-564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159-1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477-6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use. Our analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence. Australian Research Council.
Summary Background A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy—ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)—are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level. Methods We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status. Findings Assuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0·0022 (uncertainty bounds 0·0008–0·0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0·0043 (0·0016–0·0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0·043 (0·0159–0·1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80–564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159–1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477–6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use. Interpretation Our analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence. Funding Australian Research Council.
A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy-ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)-are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status. Assuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0.0022 (uncertainty bounds 0.0008-0.0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0.0043 (0.0016-0.0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0.043 (0.0159-0.1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80-564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159-1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477-6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use. Our analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence. Australian Research Council.
Author Kaldor, John M
Wilson, David P
Cooper, David A
Law, Matthew G
Grulich, Andrew E
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: David P
  surname: Wilson
  fullname: Wilson, David P
  email: Dwilson@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
  organization: National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
– sequence: 2
  givenname: Matthew G
  surname: Law
  fullname: Law, Matthew G
  organization: National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
– sequence: 3
  givenname: Andrew E
  surname: Grulich
  fullname: Grulich, Andrew E
  organization: National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
– sequence: 4
  givenname: David A
  surname: Cooper
  fullname: Cooper, David A
  organization: National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
– sequence: 5
  givenname: John M
  surname: Kaldor
  fullname: Kaldor, John M
  organization: National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
BackLink https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18657710$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Snippet A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy—ie, those...
Summary Background A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective...
A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy-ie, those...
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SubjectTerms Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
AIDS
Anti-Retroviral Agents - therapeutic use
Antiretroviral agents
Antiretroviral drugs
Couples
Female
Heterosexuality
HIV
HIV Infections - blood
HIV Infections - drug therapy
HIV Infections - transmission
Human immunodeficiency virus
Humans
Internal Medicine
Male
Mens health
Models, Theoretical
Probability
Risk-Taking
RNA, Viral - blood
Sexual Behavior
Sexually transmitted diseases
STD
Studies
Viral Load
Title Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness: a model-based analysis
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18657710
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