粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅲ.粮食生产潜力中、长期预测理论、模型及其应用

粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的目的是为国家中、长期粮食生产规划提供科学依据。粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”：从若干个预测模型中选择出2个模型，一个模型预测的未来产量是持续增加的，体现产量持续增加的科技进步力量；另一个模型预测的未来产量是先增加后减少或持续减少的，体现影响产量持续增加的负面综合因素力量。应用结果表明：模型可预测未来1~10年的粮食生产潜力，平均预测误差在5％以内。大量案例证明粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”是科学的、方法是通用的、结果是实用的。...

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Published in	农业资源与环境学报 Vol. 31; no. 3; pp. 220 - 226
Main Author	刘书田王铄今米长虹侯彦林郑宏艳王农蔡彦明黄治平夏维任军王新民侯显达
Format	Journal Article
Language	Chinese
Published	农业农村部环境保护科研监测所 25.06.2014 中国农业生态环境保护协会
Subjects	中长期方法理论粮食潜力预测方法粮食潜力中长期理论预测
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ISSN	2095-6819 2095-6819

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Summary:	粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的目的是为国家中、长期粮食生产规划提供科学依据。粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”：从若干个预测模型中选择出2个模型，一个模型预测的未来产量是持续增加的，体现产量持续增加的科技进步力量；另一个模型预测的未来产量是先增加后减少或持续减少的，体现影响产量持续增加的负面综合因素力量。应用结果表明：模型可预测未来1~10年的粮食生产潜力，平均预测误差在5％以内。大量案例证明粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”是科学的、方法是通用的、结果是实用的。
Bibliography:	LIU Shu-tian, WANG Shuo-jin, MI Chang-hong, HOU Yan-lin, ZHENG Hong-yan, WANG Nong, CAI Yan-ming, HUANG Zhi-ping, XIA Wei, REN Jun, WANG Xin-min, HOU Xian-da （ 1. Agro-Environmental Protection Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Tianjin 300191, China; 2. Beijing Research Center for Information Technology in Agriculture, Beijing 100089, China; 3. Jilin Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changchun 130033, China; 4. Henan College of Animal Husbandry and Economy, Zhengzhou 450011, China; 5. Software Development and Service Center of Beijing Yours, Beijing 100089, China） grain yield potential;medium and long-term;prediction;theory;method 12-1437/S The purpose of the long-term prediction of grain yield potential is to provide scientific basis for planning medium and long-term food production in China. The‘bidirectional prediction theory’of food production potential for medium and long-term is defined as follows：choosing two models from several prediction models, one model to predict the future output is increasing, whi
ISSN:	2095-6819 2095-6819