Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems
► Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. ► Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. ► Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. ► Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study. Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject...
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| Published in | Waste management (Elmsford) Vol. 32; no. 12; pp. 2482 - 2495 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Kidlington
Elsevier Ltd
01.12.2012
Elsevier |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0956-053X 1879-2456 1879-2456 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.wasman.2012.07.008 |
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| Abstract | ► Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. ► Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. ► Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. ► Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study.
Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties. |
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| AbstractList | Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties. Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties. ► Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. ► Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. ► Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. ► Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study. Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties. |
| Author | Clavreul, Julie Guyonnet, Dominique Christensen, Thomas H. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Julie surname: Clavreul fullname: Clavreul, Julie email: julc@env.dtu.dk organization: Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark – sequence: 2 givenname: Dominique surname: Guyonnet fullname: Guyonnet, Dominique organization: BRGM, ENAG BRGM-School, BP 6009, 3 Avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans Cedex, France – sequence: 3 givenname: Thomas H. surname: Christensen fullname: Christensen, Thomas H. organization: Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark |
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| Snippet | ► Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. ► Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. ► Sequential procedure for... Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been... Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model, scenario and... |
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| SubjectTerms | Applied sciences COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION Environmental Engineering Environmental Sciences Exact sciences and technology General treatment and storage processes LCA-modelling LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES management systems model uncertainty Models, Theoretical parameter uncertainty Pollution Sensitivity SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Uncertainty uncertainty analysis VARIATIONS WASTE MANAGEMENT Waste Management - methods Wastes |
| Title | Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems |
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