Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment
We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from m...
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| Published in | European economic review Vol. 77; pp. 65 - 81 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Amsterdam
Elsevier B.V
01.07.2015
Elsevier Sequoia S.A |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0014-2921 1873-572X |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.03.012 |
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| Abstract | We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner. |
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| AbstractList | We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner. We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner. All rights reserved, Elsevier |
| Author | Page, Lionel Torgler, Benno Morton, Rebecca B. Muller, Daniel |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Rebecca B. surname: Morton fullname: Morton, Rebecca B. email: rebecca.morton@nyu.edu organization: Department of Politics, New York University, NY, Unites States – sequence: 2 givenname: Daniel surname: Muller fullname: Muller, Daniel email: d.mueller@uni-mannheim.de organization: Department of Economics and SFB-884, University of Mannheim, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Lionel orcidid: 0000-0002-6020-9733 surname: Page fullname: Page, Lionel email: lionel.page@qut.edu.au organization: School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Australia – sequence: 4 givenname: Benno surname: Torgler fullname: Torgler, Benno email: benno.torgler@qut.edu.au organization: School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Australia |
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| Snippet | We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation,... |
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| SubjectTerms | Candidates Causality Election results Elections Electoral reform Exit polls France Information Legislation Polls Studies Voter behavior Voter turnout Voters Votes Voting Voting turnout Western Europe |
| Title | Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment |
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