Estimated prevalence and viral transmissibility in subjects with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in Wuhan, China

• Published in: Precision Clinical Medicine Vol. 3; no. 4; pp. 301 - 305
• Main Authors: Zhang, Kang, Tong, Weiwei, Wang, Xinghuan, Lau, Johnson Yiu-Nam
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Oxford University Press 01.12.2020
• Subjects: Analysis; Asymptomatic; China; Clinical Practice; COVID-19; Disease transmission; Earthquakes; Epidemics; Health aspects; Hospitals; Infection; Infections; Mathematical models; Medical research; Medicine, Experimental; Pandemics; Public health; Quarantine; Serology; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Viral infections; China; Wuhan China; COVID-19; infection; asymptomatic carriers
• ISSN: 2096-5303; 2516-1571; 2516-1571
• DOI: 10.1093/pcmedi/pbaa032

The role of subjects with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in the current pandemic is not well-defined. Based on two different approaches to estimate the culminative attack rate (seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and a four compartment mathematical model) and the reported number of patients with COVID-19, the ratio of asymptomatic versus symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated to be 7 (95% CI: 2.8–12.4) in Wuhan, Hubei, China, the first epicenter of this pandemic, which has settled with no new cases. Together with detailed recording of the contact sources in a cohort of patients, and applying the estimations to an established mathematical model, the viral transmissibility of the subjects with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection is around 10% of that of the symptomatic patients (95% CI: 7.6%–12.3%). Public health measures/policies should address this important pool of infectious source in combat against this viral pandemic.