新安江模型参数有效优化及不确定性评估
应用新安江模型进行水文模拟时,由于模型本身的不足及参数多、信息量少等原因,会出现率定的最优参数组不唯一、不稳定等问题。考虑到以往的参数优选,都只得出一个参数组,不能反映出其不确定性状况。提出应用基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）理论的SCEM-UA算法,通过双牌流域以1 h为时段间隔的36场典型洪水数据对新安江模型参数进行优选和不确定性评估。结果表明,该算法能很好地推出新安江模型参数的后验概率分布;率定和检验结果分析也表明,应用SCEM-UA算法对新安江模型进行优选和不确定评估是有效和可行的。...
Saved in:
| Published in | 中国工程科学 Vol. 12; no. 3; pp. 100 - 107 |
|---|---|
| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
中国工程院战略咨询中心
01.03.2010
高等教育出版社有限公司 华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011%大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085%华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011 大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085 |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1009-1742 |
| DOI | 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1742.2010.03.017 |
Cover
| Abstract | 应用新安江模型进行水文模拟时,由于模型本身的不足及参数多、信息量少等原因,会出现率定的最优参数组不唯一、不稳定等问题。考虑到以往的参数优选,都只得出一个参数组,不能反映出其不确定性状况。提出应用基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）理论的SCEM-UA算法,通过双牌流域以1 h为时段间隔的36场典型洪水数据对新安江模型参数进行优选和不确定性评估。结果表明,该算法能很好地推出新安江模型参数的后验概率分布;率定和检验结果分析也表明,应用SCEM-UA算法对新安江模型进行优选和不确定评估是有效和可行的。 |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | P338+.9; 应用新安江模型进行水文模拟时,由于模型本身的不足及参数多、信息量少等原因,会出现率定的最优参数组不唯一、不稳定等问题.考虑到以往的参数优选,都只得出一个参数组,不能反映出其不确定性状况.提出应用基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)理论的SCEM-UA算法,通过双牌流域以1h为时段间隔的36场典型洪水数据对新安江模型参数进行优选和不确定性评估.结果表明,该算法能很好地推出新安江模型参数的后验概率分布;率定和检验结果分析也表明,应用SCEM-UA算法对新安江模型进行优选和不确定评估是有效和可行的. 应用新安江模型进行水文模拟时,由于模型本身的不足及参数多、信息量少等原因,会出现率定的最优参数组不唯一、不稳定等问题。考虑到以往的参数优选,都只得出一个参数组,不能反映出其不确定性状况。提出应用基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）理论的SCEM-UA算法,通过双牌流域以1 h为时段间隔的36场典型洪水数据对新安江模型参数进行优选和不确定性评估。结果表明,该算法能很好地推出新安江模型参数的后验概率分布;率定和检验结果分析也表明,应用SCEM-UA算法对新安江模型进行优选和不确定评估是有效和可行的。 |
| Abstract_FL | While Xin'anjiang model is applied to simulate hydrograph,the "best" parameter set calibrated may be not unique and uncertain because of model limitation,more parameters and limited information.Considering previously parameter optimization of Xin'anjiang model.there is only a unique "best" parameter set to be found and it doesn't describe uncertainty of parameter.This paper presents using SCEM-UA algorithm based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for optimization and uncertainty assessment of Xin'anjiang model parameters by means-of 36 historical floods data with one hour interval.The results demonstrate that SCEM-UA algorithm is well suited to infer the posterior distribution of Xin'aniiang model parameters.The results of calibration and validation indicate that it is feasible and effective for optimization and uncertainty assessment of Xin'anjiang model parameters. |
| Author | 王文川 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085;华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011%大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085%华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011 |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085;华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011%大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085%华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011 |
| Author_FL | Wang Wenchuan Qiu Lin Cheng Chuntian rang Binbin |
| Author_FL_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: Wang Wenchuan – sequence: 2 fullname: Cheng Chuntian – sequence: 3 fullname: Qiu Lin – sequence: 4 fullname: rang Binbin |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: 王文川 organization: 大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连116085 华北水利水电学院,郑州450011 |
| BookMark | eNo9jztLA0EcxLeIYIz5APaC1Z373lwpwRcEbNIf_9vbC4myARdRrEQsjA9SJYiIkkqrGDuLfJy71Y_hScRqYObHDLOCKrZvDULrBIcsktFmL-w6Z0OCcRQQxWlIcRlhFmKiKqj67y-junPdBHNCJRWUVpH041kxHfiPF_82KZ5vi-GlH83808CPrvP5Q3E3LoY3-ef912RaTB_9xev3-1U-n62ipQyOnKn_aQ21d7bbzb2gdbC739xqBVpgFXCVNFLNtJTGJAAUVJIlEtJEKM2ZhpRyQ4zgIBpAskwKCswIppjEICUQVkMbi9pTsBnYTtzrnxzbcjA-73T04dnvTczKkyW5tiA1OBdb59KYccGJwJz9AKyqZxg |
| ClassificationCodes | P338+.9 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
| DBID | NSCOK 2B. 4A8 92I 93N PSX TCJ |
| DOI | 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1742.2010.03.017 |
| DatabaseName | 国家哲学社会科学文献中心 (National Center for Philosophy and Social Sciences Documentation) Wanfang Data Journals - Hong Kong WANFANG Data Centre Wanfang Data Journals 万方数据期刊 - 香港版 China Online Journals (COJ) China Online Journals (COJ) |
| DatabaseTitleList | |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Engineering |
| DocumentTitle_FL | Effective optimization and uncertainty assessment of Xin'anjiang model parameters |
| EndPage | 107 |
| ExternalDocumentID | zggckx201003017 34541504 |
| GrantInformation_xml | – fundername: 国家自然科学基金; 水利部公益性行业科研专项; 华北水利水电学院高层次人才科研启动资助项目 funderid: (50679011); (200801015); (200821) |
| GroupedDBID | -0C -SC -S~ 2RA 5VR 92L 92M 92R 93N 9D9 9DC AAITT AAXDM ABGRJ AFUIB ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS CAJEC CQIGP CW7 FA0 GROUPED_DOAJ J.9 JUIAU M~T NSCOK NTYSC PB1 PB9 Q-- Q-2 R-C RT3 T8S U1F U5C W92 ~WA 2B. 4A8 92I PSX TCJ |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c507-47b8dc3c66eebaa2a7bfb6adb57c43cad24e1e54a58a1ff652a3e537360a66a13 |
| ISSN | 1009-1742 |
| IngestDate | Thu May 29 04:02:37 EDT 2025 Tue Jan 21 20:52:35 EST 2025 |
| IsDoiOpenAccess | true |
| IsOpenAccess | true |
| IsPeerReviewed | false |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 3 |
| Keywords | SCEM-UA 不确定性评估 新安江模型 参数率定 uncertainty assessment calibration parameter Xin'anjiang model |
| Language | Chinese |
| LinkModel | OpenURL |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c507-47b8dc3c66eebaa2a7bfb6adb57c43cad24e1e54a58a1ff652a3e537360a66a13 |
| OpenAccessLink | https://www.ncpssd.cn/Literature/articleinfo?id=34541504&type=journalArticle |
| PageCount | 8 |
| ParticipantIDs | wanfang_journals_zggckx201003017 cass_nssd_34541504 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2010-03-01 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2010-03-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 03 year: 2010 text: 2010-03-01 day: 01 |
| PublicationDecade | 2010 |
| PublicationTitle | 中国工程科学 |
| PublicationTitle_FL | ENGINEERING SCIENCE |
| PublicationYear | 2010 |
| Publisher | 中国工程院战略咨询中心 高等教育出版社有限公司 华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011%大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085%华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011 大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085 |
| Publisher_xml | – name: 中国工程院战略咨询中心 – name: 高等教育出版社有限公司 – name: 大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085 – name: 华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011%大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连,116085%华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011 |
| SSID | ssib041262522 ssib000271367 ssj0002857239 ssib051368723 ssib006564177 ssib036436351 ssib044765437 |
| Score | 1.8176849 |
| Snippet | 应用新安江模型进行水文模拟时,由于模型本身的不足及参数多、信息量少等原因,会出现率定的最优参数组不唯一、不稳定等问题。考虑到以往的参数优选,都只得出一个参数组,不能反... P338+.9; 应用新安江模型进行水文模拟时,由于模型本身的不足及参数多、信息量少等原因,会出现率定的最优参数组不唯一、不稳定等问题.考虑到以往的参数优选,都只得出一个参数... |
| SourceID | wanfang cass |
| SourceType | Aggregation Database |
| StartPage | 100 |
| Title | 新安江模型参数有效优化及不确定性评估 |
| URI | https://www.ncpssd.cn/Literature/articleinfo?id=34541504&type=journalArticle https://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/periodical/zggckx201003017 |
| Volume | 12 |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| journalDatabaseRights | – providerCode: PRVHPJ databaseName: ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources issn: 1009-1742 databaseCode: M~E dateStart: 19990101 customDbUrl: isFulltext: true dateEnd: 99991231 titleUrlDefault: https://road.issn.org omitProxy: true ssIdentifier: ssib044765437 providerName: ISSN International Centre |
| link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnR3LahRBsAkRRA9ifGB8kUP6OHFm-n2c2UwIQjxFyG3peUUUVnATkBxExIPxQU4JIqLkpKcYbx7yOdnRq39gVW-7O4Yg0cvQ012Prq6Z6uqeqWpCZk2lMK15EYCroAJuKhZYVZZBrXJRRIWWJsd456U7cvEuv70iViYmfrb-Wlpfy-eKjWPjSv5Hq1AHesUo2X_Q7IgoVEAZ9AtX0DBcT6RjmklqJE1DmgmaZFQbrEkjahawkGiaRNhkoCnFgl6gOnZYwmFBoeOxoEZrmnGadqjRDriDxD1W4po01fM0U0gW2A2ZmgTRdUgTRTPgCMDc00nDtu_rKSTzrkspTV0hBWrC0dSukwrpGNdtgExGG4fYoodyOKG18thmvr1zgR_dWXvn4mRcDTWGJm5oYBRQfoUjgjCAFSPYUDaEaRFMQVrWMuzu2AfF_7T8cesJZy0zHoVhyyPw5_IenWyYkcZNNshgbsTA_y7I5sJhUOqRdN6MC_CZMIPtqRgmIjxtZOlJ1v4QjEn0xiZRSB6NQ4UZOJDgIo5MMo9iWMCOMzByrjBYeAQvgJhW3gO87_ZSBdwa9w-A7_BpMuulufU3WcBnKWA954LberXtrbb8sOXz5JxfQM0kw7dhikxs3LtAzrbSal4kstnZH-xtNl8_Np93Bx9eDbaeNdv7zfvNZvvF4cHbweudwdbLw29vvu_uDfbeNU8__fjy_PBg_xJZXsiWO4uBPx8kKGAVE3CV67JghZRVlVsbW5XXubRlLlTBWWHLmFdRJbgV2kZ1LUVsWSUY2KbQSmkjdplM9h72qitkBl22Og5riQkENQtNEZelhbnM5gYGPZ4mUyh7t9fvl93fGpwmM34kut4m9Lsbq6vFg8c4arjVoK4eh3eNnBm_DdfJ5Nqj9eoGeLZr-U33LPwCTY53ag |
| linkProvider | ISSN International Centre |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=%E6%96%B0%E5%AE%89%E6%B1%9F%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E5%8F%82%E6%95%B0%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E4%BC%98%E5%8C%96%E5%8F%8A%E4%B8%8D%E7%A1%AE%E5%AE%9A%E6%80%A7%E8%AF%84%E4%BC%B0&rft.jtitle=%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6&rft.au=%E7%8E%8B%E6%96%87%E5%B7%9D&rft.date=2010-03-01&rft.pub=%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E9%99%A2%E6%88%98%E7%95%A5%E5%92%A8%E8%AF%A2%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83&rft.issn=1009-1742&rft.volume=12&rft.issue=3&rft.spage=100&rft.epage=107&rft_id=info:doi/10.3969%2Fj.issn.1009-1742.2010.03.017&rft.externalDocID=34541504 |
| thumbnail_s | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/image/custom?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wanfangdata.com.cn%2Fimages%2FPeriodicalImages%2Fzggckx%2Fzggckx.jpg |