The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

• Published in: Transportation planning and technology Vol. 38; no. 6; pp. 684 - 707
• Main Authors: Engelson, Leonid, van Amelsfort, Dirk
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Routledge 18.08.2015; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Calibration; Congestion charging; cost-benefit analysis; Economics; Errors; Forecasting techniques; Mathematical models; Sensitivity analysis; Slopes; Stockholm; Traffic congestion; transport model; Transportation; volume-delay functions; volume-delay functions; congestion charging; cost-benefit analysis; transport model; Stockholm
• ISSN: 0308-1060; 1029-0354; 1029-0354
• DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2015.1048948

This paper uses observations from before and during the Stockkholm congestion charging trial in order to validate and improve a transportation model for Stockholm. The model overestimates the impact of the charges on traffic volumes while at the same time it substantially underestimates the impact on travel times. These forecast errors lead to considerable underestimation of economic benefits which are dominated by travel time savings. The source of error lies in the static assignment that is used in the model. Making the volume-delay functions (VDFs) steeper only marginally improves the quality of forecast but strongly impacts the result of benefit calculations. We therefore conclude that the dynamic assignment is crucial for an informed decision on introducing measures aimed at relieving congestion. However, in the absence of such a calibrated dynamic model for a city, we recommend that at least a sensitivity analysis with respect to the slope of VDFs is performed.