Technology roadmapping for competitive technical intelligence

Understanding the evolution and emergence of technology domains remains a challenge, particularly so for potentially breakthrough technologies. Though it is well recognized that emergence of new fields is complex and uncertain, to make decisions amidst such uncertainty, one needs to mobilize various...

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Published in	Technological forecasting & social change Vol. 110; pp. 175 - 186
Main Authors	Zhang, Yi, Robinson, Douglas K.R., Porter, Alan L., Zhu, Donghua, Zhang, Guangquan, Lu, Jie
Format	Journal Article
Language	English
Published	New York Elsevier Inc 01.09.2016 Elsevier Science Ltd Elsevier
Subjects	Best practice Business administration Business competition Case studies Competitive intelligence Competitive technical intelligence Decision analysis Decisions Domains Emergence Evolution Humanities and Social Sciences Intelligence Methods and statistics Photovoltaic cells Policies Showcases Sociology Solar cells Strategy Studies Tech mining Technological change Technological planning Technology Technology roadmapping Text mining Trend analysis Text mining Tech mining Technology roadmapping Competitive technical intelligence
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ISSN	0040-1625 1873-5509
DOI	10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.029

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Abstract	Understanding the evolution and emergence of technology domains remains a challenge, particularly so for potentially breakthrough technologies. Though it is well recognized that emergence of new fields is complex and uncertain, to make decisions amidst such uncertainty, one needs to mobilize various sources of intelligence to identify known–knowns and known–unknowns to be able to choose appropriate strategies and policies. This competitive technical intelligence cannot rely on simple trend analyses because breakthrough technologies have little past to inform such trends, and positing the directions of evolution is challenging. Neither do qualitative tools, embracing the complexities, provide all the solutions, since transparent and repeatable techniques need to be employed to create best practices and evaluate the intelligence that comes from such exercises. In this paper, we present a hybrid roadmapping technique that draws on a number of approaches and integrates them into a multi-level approach (individual activities, industry evolutions and broader global changes) that can be applied to breakthrough technologies. We describe this approach in deeper detail through a case study on dye-sensitized solar cells. Our contribution to this special issue is to showcase the technique as part of a family of approaches that are emerging around the world to inform strategy and policy. •Hybrid quantitative/qualitative approach to technology roadmapping (TR)•The development of selection and evaluation criteria for real-world TR applications•TR with science, technology & innovation factors for competitive technical intelligence•Case application to the field of dye sensitized solar cells
AbstractList	Understanding the evolution and emergence of technology domains remains a challenge, particularly so for potentially breakthrough technologies. Though it is well recognized that emergence of new fields is complex and uncertain, to make decisions amidst such uncertainty, one needs to mobilize various sources of intelligence to identify known–knowns and known–unknowns to be able to choose appropriate strategies and policies. This competitive technical intelligence cannot rely on simple trend analyses because breakthrough technologies have little past to inform such trends, and positing the directions of evolution is challenging. Neither do qualitative tools, embracing the complexities, provide all the solutions, since transparent and repeatable techniques need to be employed to create best practices and evaluate the intelligence that comes from such exercises. In this paper, we present a hybrid roadmapping technique that draws on a number of approaches and integrates them into a multi-level approach (individual activities, industry evolutions and broader global changes) that can be applied to breakthrough technologies. We describe this approach in deeper detail through a case study on dye-sensitized solar cells. Our contribution to this special issue is to showcase the technique as part of a family of approaches that are emerging around the world to inform strategy and policy. •Hybrid quantitative/qualitative approach to technology roadmapping (TR)•The development of selection and evaluation criteria for real-world TR applications•TR with science, technology & innovation factors for competitive technical intelligence•Case application to the field of dye sensitized solar cells Understanding the evolution and emergence of technology domains remains a challenge, particularly so for potentially breakthrough technologies. Though it is well recognized that emergence of new fields is complex and uncertain, to make decisions amidst such uncertainty, one needs to mobilize various sources of intelligence to identify known-knowns and known-unknowns to be able to choose appropriate strategies and policies. This competitive technical intelligence cannot rely on simple trend analyses because breakthrough technologies have little past to inform such trends, and positing the directions of evolution is challenging. Neither do qualitative tools, embracing the complexities, provide all the solutions, since transparent and repeatable techniques need to be employed to create best practices and evaluate the intelligence that comes from such exercises. In this paper, we present a hybrid roadmapping technique that draws on a number of approaches and integrates them into a multi-level approach (individual activities, industry evolutions and broader global changes) that can be applied to breakthrough technologies. We describe this approach in deeper detail through a case study on dye-sensitized solar cells. Our contribution to this special issue is to showcase the technique as part of a family of approaches that are emerging around the world to inform strategy and policy.
Author	Robinson, Douglas K.R. Zhang, Yi Zhu, Donghua Zhang, Guangquan Porter, Alan L. Lu, Jie
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Yi surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Yi email: yizhang.bit@gmail.com organization: School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, PR China – sequence: 2 givenname: Douglas K.R. surname: Robinson fullname: Robinson, Douglas K.R. email: douglas.robinson@teqnode.com organization: Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences Innovations Sociétés (LISIS), ESIEE-IFRIS, Université de Paris-Est, France – sequence: 3 givenname: Alan L. surname: Porter fullname: Porter, Alan L. email: alan.porter@isye.gatech.edu organization: Technology Policy and Assessment Centre, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Donghua surname: Zhu fullname: Zhu, Donghua email: zhudh111@bit.edu.cn organization: School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, PR China – sequence: 5 givenname: Guangquan surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Guangquan email: Guangquan.Zhang@uts.edu.au organization: Decision Systems & e-Service Intelligence Research Lab, Centre for Quantum Computation & Intelligent Systems, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Australia – sequence: 6 givenname: Jie surname: Lu fullname: Lu, Jie email: Jie.Lu@uts.edu.au organization: Decision Systems & e-Service Intelligence Research Lab, Centre for Quantum Computation & Intelligent Systems, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Australia
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Snippet	Understanding the evolution and emergence of technology domains remains a challenge, particularly so for potentially breakthrough technologies. Though it is...
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SubjectTerms	Best practice Business administration Business competition Case studies Competitive intelligence Competitive technical intelligence Decision analysis Decisions Domains Emergence Evolution Humanities and Social Sciences Intelligence Methods and statistics Photovoltaic cells Policies Showcases Sociology Solar cells Strategy Studies Tech mining Technological change Technological planning Technology Technology roadmapping Text mining Trend analysis
Title	Technology roadmapping for competitive technical intelligence
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