Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods

Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture. Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties, impeding effective decision-making to climate change. On the basis of uncertaint...

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Published inChinese science bulletin Vol. 56; no. 8; pp. 729 - 737
Main Authors Yao, FengMei, Qin, PengCheng, Zhang, JiaHua, Lin, ErDa, Boken, Vijendra
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Heidelberg Springer-Verlag 01.03.2011
SP Science China Press
Subjects
Agriculture
Assessments
Chemistry/Food Science
Climate
Climate change
climate models
Computer simulation
crop models
Earth Sciences
Engineering
Focusing
Humanities and Social Sciences
Life Sciences
Mathematical models
multidisciplinary
Physics
processing technology
Review
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
simulation models
Uncertainty
不确定性传播
不确定性模型
农业影响
影响评估
模型模拟
气候变化
气候模型
气候预测
agriculture
model simulation
uncertainty
climate change
impact assessment
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1001-6538
1861-9541
1861-9541
DOI10.1007/s11434-011-4374-6

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Abstract Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture. Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties, impeding effective decision-making to climate change. On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels, this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection, the assessment process, and the crop models linking to climate models. Meanwhile, techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced, and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out. Finally, in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture, improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.
AbstractList Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture. Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties, impeding effective decision-making to climate change. On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels, this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection, the assessment process, and the crop models linking to climate models. Meanwhile, techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced, and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out. Finally, in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture, improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.
Author Yao, FengMei
Boken, Vijendra
Zhang, JiaHua
Lin, ErDa
Qin, PengCheng
AuthorAffiliation College of Earth Science, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China School of Geoscience, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, China Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China Department of Geography and Earth Science, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, NE 68849, USA
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Snippet Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture. Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of...
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SubjectTerms Agriculture
Assessments
Chemistry/Food Science
Climate
Climate change
climate models
Computer simulation
crop models
Earth Sciences
Engineering
Focusing
Humanities and Social Sciences
Life Sciences
Mathematical models
multidisciplinary
Physics
processing technology
Review
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
simulation models
Uncertainty
不确定性传播
不确定性模型
农业影响
影响评估
模型模拟
气候变化
气候模型
气候预测
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Title Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods
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