Treatment failure and the threshold of disease extinction
Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this study, we examined the possibility that a particular therapeutic effectiveness will be regarded as t...
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| Published in | Infectious disease modelling Vol. 10; no. 2; pp. 453 - 465 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
China
Elsevier B.V
01.06.2025
KeAi Publishing KeAi Communications Co., Ltd |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 2468-0427 2468-2152 2468-0427 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.idm.2024.12.007 |
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| Abstract | Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this study, we examined the possibility that a particular therapeutic effectiveness will be regarded as the disease extinction threshold through the mathematical modelling approach. Including the treatment state in the generic epidemic model with carrier allows us to describe the role of carriers in the treatment failure. The parameterized extinction thresholds were derived via the basic reproduction number for deterministic model, and via the Jury stability criterion for the stochastic model. Existence conditions for the stochastic threshold were derived without the exact formula of the spectral radius of the expectation matrix. The results show that the transmissibility of carrier is necessary for the extinction threshold via treatment failure. The expected extinction threshold may occur subject to the certain range of the transmission potential of the symptomatic infection. This existence conditions are independent of the rate at which the carriers undergo treatment and can be used to support a control strategy.
[Display omitted]
•Characteristics of antibiotic failure related to carriers were captured through deterministic and stochastic models.•Parametric extinction thresholds were analyzed for both deterministic and stochastic models.•Treatment failure can be a parameterized extinction threshold within a certain range of symptomatic transmissibility. |
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| AbstractList | Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this study, we examined the possibility that a particular therapeutic effectiveness will be regarded as the disease extinction threshold through the mathematical modelling approach. Including the treatment state in the generic epidemic model with carrier allows us to describe the role of carriers in the treatment failure. The parameterized extinction thresholds were derived via the basic reproduction number for deterministic model, and via the Jury stability criterion for the stochastic model. Existence conditions for the stochastic threshold were derived without the exact formula of the spectral radius of the expectation matrix. The results show that the transmissibility of carrier is necessary for the extinction threshold via treatment failure. The expected extinction threshold may occur subject to the certain range of the transmission potential of the symptomatic infection. This existence conditions are independent of the rate at which the carriers undergo treatment and can be used to support a control strategy. Image 1 •Characteristics of antibiotic failure related to carriers were captured through deterministic and stochastic models.•Parametric extinction thresholds were analyzed for both deterministic and stochastic models.•Treatment failure can be a parameterized extinction threshold within a certain range of symptomatic transmissibility. Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this study, we examined the possibility that a particular therapeutic effectiveness will be regarded as the disease extinction threshold through the mathematical modelling approach. Including the treatment state in the generic epidemic model with carrier allows us to describe the role of carriers in the treatment failure. The parameterized extinction thresholds were derived via the basic reproduction number for deterministic model, and via the Jury stability criterion for the stochastic model. Existence conditions for the stochastic threshold were derived without the exact formula of the spectral radius of the expectation matrix. The results show that the transmissibility of carrier is necessary for the extinction threshold via treatment failure. The expected extinction threshold may occur subject to the certain range of the transmission potential of the symptomatic infection. This existence conditions are independent of the rate at which the carriers undergo treatment and can be used to support a control strategy. [Display omitted] •Characteristics of antibiotic failure related to carriers were captured through deterministic and stochastic models.•Parametric extinction thresholds were analyzed for both deterministic and stochastic models.•Treatment failure can be a parameterized extinction threshold within a certain range of symptomatic transmissibility. Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this study, we examined the possibility that a particular therapeutic effectiveness will be regarded as the disease extinction threshold through the mathematical modelling approach. Including the treatment state in the generic epidemic model with carrier allows us to describe the role of carriers in the treatment failure. The parameterized extinction thresholds were derived via the basic reproduction number for deterministic model, and via the Jury stability criterion for the stochastic model. Existence conditions for the stochastic threshold were derived without the exact formula of the spectral radius of the expectation matrix. The results show that the transmissibility of carrier is necessary for the extinction threshold via treatment failure. The expected extinction threshold may occur subject to the certain range of the transmission potential of the symptomatic infection. This existence conditions are independent of the rate at which the carriers undergo treatment and can be used to support a control strategy. Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this study, we examined the possibility that a particular therapeutic effectiveness will be regarded as the disease extinction threshold through the mathematical modelling approach. Including the treatment state in the generic epidemic model with carrier allows us to describe the role of carriers in the treatment failure. The parameterized extinction thresholds were derived via the basic reproduction number for deterministic model, and via the Jury stability criterion for the stochastic model. Existence conditions for the stochastic threshold were derived without the exact formula of the spectral radius of the expectation matrix. The results show that the transmissibility of carrier is necessary for the extinction threshold via treatment failure. The expected extinction threshold may occur subject to the certain range of the transmission potential of the symptomatic infection. This existence conditions are independent of the rate at which the carriers undergo treatment and can be used to support a control strategy.Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this study, we examined the possibility that a particular therapeutic effectiveness will be regarded as the disease extinction threshold through the mathematical modelling approach. Including the treatment state in the generic epidemic model with carrier allows us to describe the role of carriers in the treatment failure. The parameterized extinction thresholds were derived via the basic reproduction number for deterministic model, and via the Jury stability criterion for the stochastic model. Existence conditions for the stochastic threshold were derived without the exact formula of the spectral radius of the expectation matrix. The results show that the transmissibility of carrier is necessary for the extinction threshold via treatment failure. The expected extinction threshold may occur subject to the certain range of the transmission potential of the symptomatic infection. This existence conditions are independent of the rate at which the carriers undergo treatment and can be used to support a control strategy. |
| Author | Voottipruex, Pichaya Patanarapeelert, Nichaphat Patanarapeelert, Klot |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Pichaya surname: Voottipruex fullname: Voottipruex, Pichaya email: pichayavoo@gmail.com organization: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok, 10800, Thailand – sequence: 2 givenname: Nichaphat surname: Patanarapeelert fullname: Patanarapeelert, Nichaphat email: nichaphat.p@sci.kmutnb.ac.th organization: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok, 10800, Thailand – sequence: 3 givenname: Klot orcidid: 0000-0002-8490-8993 surname: Patanarapeelert fullname: Patanarapeelert, Klot email: patanarapeelert_k@su.ac.th organization: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Silpakorn Universtiy, Nakhon Pathom Province, 73000, Thailand |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1007/s10441-020-09391-y 10.1142/S0218339020500187 10.1093/jpids/piu030 10.1093/pch/3.4.229 10.1055/s-0036-1584294 10.1542/peds.2004-0133 10.1086/650168 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100704 10.1098/rsos.172341 10.1017/S0950268822001467 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6 10.1080/17513758.2012.665502 10.3109/00365548809032477 10.1016/j.mbs.2013.02.006 10.1016/j.otohns.2007.07.033 10.3934/era.2023360 10.1016/j.idm.2017.03.001 10.1097/00006454-199406000-00036 10.1016/j.tim.2012.04.004 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006335 10.1016/j.tim.2014.06.007 10.1080/10236198.2021.1920937 10.1001/archpedi.153.6.624 |
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| Keywords | Parametric extinction threshold Branching process Carrier Antibiotic treatment failure |
| Language | English |
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