A predictive scoring system for the seroclearance of HBsAg in HBeAg-seronegative chronic hepatitis B patients with genotype B or C infection
Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss. This study included 2491 untrea...
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| Published in | Journal of hepatology Vol. 58; no. 5; pp. 853 - 860 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Netherlands
Elsevier B.V
01.05.2013
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0168-8278 1600-0641 1600-0641 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhep.2012.12.006 |
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| Abstract | Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss.
This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared.
Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ⩾1000IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92–15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787–0.792] to 0.89 [0.889–0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728–0.732] to 0.84 [0.839–0.841]) after study entry.
Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance. |
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| AbstractList | Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss.
This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared.
Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ⩾1000IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92–15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787–0.792] to 0.89 [0.889–0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728–0.732] to 0.84 [0.839–0.841]) after study entry.
Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance. Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss. This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared. Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92-15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100 IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787-0.792] to 0.89 [0.889-0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728-0.732] to 0.84 [0.839-0.841]) after study entry. Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance. Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss.BACKGROUND & AIMSSeroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss.This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared.METHODSThis study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared.Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92-15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100 IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787-0.792] to 0.89 [0.889-0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728-0.732] to 0.84 [0.839-0.841]) after study entry.RESULTSLow serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92-15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100 IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787-0.792] to 0.89 [0.889-0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728-0.732] to 0.84 [0.839-0.841]) after study entry.Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance.CONCLUSIONSIncorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance. Background & Aims Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss. Methods This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared. Results Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ⩾1000 IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92–15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100 IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787–0.792] to 0.89 [0.889–0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728–0.732] to 0.84 [0.839–0.841]) after study entry. Conclusions Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance. |
| Author | Jen, Chin-Lan Batrla-Utermann, Richard Lu, Sheng-Nan Liu, Jessica You, San-Lin Lee, Mei-Hsuan Hsiao, Chuhsing K. Iloeje, Uchenna H. Yang, Hwai-I. Chen, Chien-Jen Wang, Li-Yu |
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| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23246508$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Copyright | 2013 European Association for the Study of the Liver European Association for the Study of the Liver Copyright © 2013 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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| Keywords | Chronic hepatitis B Prediction Seroclearance |
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publication-title: Stat Med doi: 10.1002/sim.1742 |
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| Snippet | Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive... Background & Aims Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops... |
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| SubjectTerms | Adult Aged Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use Biomarkers - blood Chronic hepatitis B DNA, Viral - blood Female Gastroenterology and Hepatology Genotype Hepatitis B e Antigens - blood Hepatitis B Surface Antigens - blood Hepatitis B virus - genetics Hepatitis B, Chronic - drug therapy Hepatitis B, Chronic - immunology Humans Male Middle Aged Multivariate Analysis Prediction Predictive Value of Tests Regression Analysis Seroclearance Serology - methods Treatment Outcome Viral Load |
| Title | A predictive scoring system for the seroclearance of HBsAg in HBeAg-seronegative chronic hepatitis B patients with genotype B or C infection |
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