Identification of technology development trends based on subject–action–object analysis: The case of dye-sensitized solar cells

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change Vol. 98; pp. 24 - 46
• Main Authors: Wang, Xuefeng, Qiu, Pengjun, Zhu, Donghua, Mitkova, Liliana, Lei, Ming, Porter, Alan L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Elsevier Inc 01.09.2015; Elsevier Science Ltd; Elsevier
• Subjects: Business administration; Business growth; Construction industry; Construction materials; Decision making; Dye-sensitized solar cells; Dyes; Forecasting; Forecasting techniques; Humanities and Social Sciences; Innovation; Innovations; Photovoltaic cells; Quantitative analysis; SAO structure map; Solar cells; Studies; Subject–action–object (SAO) analysis; Technological change; Technological planning; Technology; Technology development trends; Technology roadmapping; Trends; Technology development trends; Dye-sensitized solar cells; Subject–action–object (SAO) analysis; Technology roadmapping; SAO structure map; Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs); technology roadmapping (TRM); technology development trends; Subject-Action-Object (SAO) analysis
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.05.014

Identification of technology development trends is essential for supporting decision makers in forecasting and identifying related innovation activities and industrial growth. Different from the traditional technology development trends based on keyword-based quantitative methods, which usually predict trends by finding key technologies without showing how to develop them, our method allows the identification of future direction and industry goal for the technology domain and shows detailed paths for achieving them. Thus, our method has constructed technology roadmapping (TRM) with seven layers (material, technology, influencing factor, component, product, goal, and future direction) on the basis of subject–action–object analysis. The detailed paths for developing this as a trend can be shown by the interaction among these TRM elements. In addition, the method also sets three indicators as a discriminating standard to find key players that can support the trend by engaging technological innovation scenarios. The case of a dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) is exemplified to illustrate the detailed procedure of our method. The results reveal the development trends in the field of DSSCs, the detailed paths to achieve them, and key countries that support them. [Display omitted] •We propose an SAO-based approach to identify technology development trend.•We propose a TRM with seven layers using SAO structures with significant information.•TRM displays the development trend of technology domain and detailed innovation paths.•We use subject–action–object (SAO) semantic analysis to mine significant information.