Deceleration capacity derived from a five-minute electrocardiogram predicts mortality in the general population
In contemporary healthcare, effective risk stratification in the general population is vital amidst rising chronic disease rates and an ageing demographic. Deceleration Capacity of the heart rate (DC), derived from 24-hour Holter electrocardiograms, holds promise in risk stratification for cardiac p...
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| Published in | Scientific reports Vol. 14; no. 1; pp. 30566 - 8 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
19.12.2024
Nature Publishing Group Nature Portfolio |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 2045-2322 2045-2322 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41598-024-83712-w |
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| Abstract | In contemporary healthcare, effective risk stratification in the general population is vital amidst rising chronic disease rates and an ageing demographic. Deceleration Capacity of the heart rate (DC), derived from 24-hour Holter electrocardiograms, holds promise in risk stratification for cardiac patients. However, the potential of short-term electrocardiograms of five minutes duration for population screening has not been fully explored. Our study aims to investigate the utility of Deceleration Capacity derived from short-term electrocardiograms as a scalable, fully-automated screening tool for predicting long-term mortality risk in the general population. Within a cohort of a representative population-based survey in Germany (KORA-KMC-study), 823 participants with sinus rhythm aged 27 to 76 years at enrollment (females 47.4%) were followed for a median of 13.4 years (IQR 13.1–13.6). All-cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint and observed in 159 participants. Deceleration Capacity was calculated from 5-minute 12-lead electrocardiograms by a fully automated approach. Participants were divided into three predefined risk categories: DC
category0
– low-risk (> 4.5ms); DC
category1
– intermediate-risk (2.5-4.5ms); and DC
category2
– high-risk (≤ 2.5ms). More than two-thirds of the participants (
n
= 564, 68.5%) fell into DC
category0
, about one-fifth (
n
= 168, 20.4%) into DC
category1
, and about one-tenth (
n
= 91, 11.1%) into DC
category2
. Estimated 13-years mortality in the risk groups was 16.7%, 23.5%, and 49.1%, respectively (
p
< 0.001). Adjusting for age, life-style-related risk factors, and comorbidities, increased mortality risk was observed for DC
category2
(HR 2.34, 95%-CI 1.56–3.50). Deceleration Capacity, derived automatically from brief 5-minute electrocardiogram recordings, emerges as a robust, feasible, and independent predictor of long-term mortality risk in the general population. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | In contemporary healthcare, effective risk stratification in the general population is vital amidst rising chronic disease rates and an ageing demographic. Deceleration Capacity of the heart rate (DC), derived from 24-hour Holter electrocardiograms, holds promise in risk stratification for cardiac patients. However, the potential of short-term electrocardiograms of five minutes duration for population screening has not been fully explored. Our study aims to investigate the utility of Deceleration Capacity derived from short-term electrocardiograms as a scalable, fully-automated screening tool for predicting long-term mortality risk in the general population. Within a cohort of a representative population-based survey in Germany (KORA-KMC-study), 823 participants with sinus rhythm aged 27 to 76 years at enrollment (females 47.4%) were followed for a median of 13.4 years (IQR 13.1-13.6). All-cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint and observed in 159 participants. Deceleration Capacity was calculated from 5-minute 12-lead electrocardiograms by a fully automated approach. Participants were divided into three predefined risk categories: DCcategory0 - low-risk (> 4.5ms); DCcategory1 - intermediate-risk (2.5-4.5ms); and DCcategory2 - high-risk (≤ 2.5ms). More than two-thirds of the participants (n = 564, 68.5%) fell into DCcategory0, about one-fifth (n = 168, 20.4%) into DCcategory1, and about one-tenth (n = 91, 11.1%) into DCcategory2. Estimated 13-years mortality in the risk groups was 16.7%, 23.5%, and 49.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Adjusting for age, life-style-related risk factors, and comorbidities, increased mortality risk was observed for DCcategory2 (HR 2.34, 95%-CI 1.56-3.50). Deceleration Capacity, derived automatically from brief 5-minute electrocardiogram recordings, emerges as a robust, feasible, and independent predictor of long-term mortality risk in the general population.In contemporary healthcare, effective risk stratification in the general population is vital amidst rising chronic disease rates and an ageing demographic. Deceleration Capacity of the heart rate (DC), derived from 24-hour Holter electrocardiograms, holds promise in risk stratification for cardiac patients. However, the potential of short-term electrocardiograms of five minutes duration for population screening has not been fully explored. Our study aims to investigate the utility of Deceleration Capacity derived from short-term electrocardiograms as a scalable, fully-automated screening tool for predicting long-term mortality risk in the general population. Within a cohort of a representative population-based survey in Germany (KORA-KMC-study), 823 participants with sinus rhythm aged 27 to 76 years at enrollment (females 47.4%) were followed for a median of 13.4 years (IQR 13.1-13.6). All-cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint and observed in 159 participants. Deceleration Capacity was calculated from 5-minute 12-lead electrocardiograms by a fully automated approach. Participants were divided into three predefined risk categories: DCcategory0 - low-risk (> 4.5ms); DCcategory1 - intermediate-risk (2.5-4.5ms); and DCcategory2 - high-risk (≤ 2.5ms). More than two-thirds of the participants (n = 564, 68.5%) fell into DCcategory0, about one-fifth (n = 168, 20.4%) into DCcategory1, and about one-tenth (n = 91, 11.1%) into DCcategory2. Estimated 13-years mortality in the risk groups was 16.7%, 23.5%, and 49.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Adjusting for age, life-style-related risk factors, and comorbidities, increased mortality risk was observed for DCcategory2 (HR 2.34, 95%-CI 1.56-3.50). Deceleration Capacity, derived automatically from brief 5-minute electrocardiogram recordings, emerges as a robust, feasible, and independent predictor of long-term mortality risk in the general population. In contemporary healthcare, effective risk stratification in the general population is vital amidst rising chronic disease rates and an ageing demographic. Deceleration Capacity of the heart rate (DC), derived from 24-hour Holter electrocardiograms, holds promise in risk stratification for cardiac patients. However, the potential of short-term electrocardiograms of five minutes duration for population screening has not been fully explored. Our study aims to investigate the utility of Deceleration Capacity derived from short-term electrocardiograms as a scalable, fully-automated screening tool for predicting long-term mortality risk in the general population. Within a cohort of a representative population-based survey in Germany (KORA-KMC-study), 823 participants with sinus rhythm aged 27 to 76 years at enrollment (females 47.4%) were followed for a median of 13.4 years (IQR 13.1–13.6). All-cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint and observed in 159 participants. Deceleration Capacity was calculated from 5-minute 12-lead electrocardiograms by a fully automated approach. Participants were divided into three predefined risk categories: DC category0 – low-risk (> 4.5ms); DC category1 – intermediate-risk (2.5-4.5ms); and DC category2 – high-risk (≤ 2.5ms). More than two-thirds of the participants ( n = 564, 68.5%) fell into DC category0 , about one-fifth ( n = 168, 20.4%) into DC category1 , and about one-tenth ( n = 91, 11.1%) into DC category2 . Estimated 13-years mortality in the risk groups was 16.7%, 23.5%, and 49.1%, respectively ( p < 0.001). Adjusting for age, life-style-related risk factors, and comorbidities, increased mortality risk was observed for DC category2 (HR 2.34, 95%-CI 1.56–3.50). Deceleration Capacity, derived automatically from brief 5-minute electrocardiogram recordings, emerges as a robust, feasible, and independent predictor of long-term mortality risk in the general population. Abstract In contemporary healthcare, effective risk stratification in the general population is vital amidst rising chronic disease rates and an ageing demographic. Deceleration Capacity of the heart rate (DC), derived from 24-hour Holter electrocardiograms, holds promise in risk stratification for cardiac patients. However, the potential of short-term electrocardiograms of five minutes duration for population screening has not been fully explored. Our study aims to investigate the utility of Deceleration Capacity derived from short-term electrocardiograms as a scalable, fully-automated screening tool for predicting long-term mortality risk in the general population. Within a cohort of a representative population-based survey in Germany (KORA-KMC-study), 823 participants with sinus rhythm aged 27 to 76 years at enrollment (females 47.4%) were followed for a median of 13.4 years (IQR 13.1–13.6). All-cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint and observed in 159 participants. Deceleration Capacity was calculated from 5-minute 12-lead electrocardiograms by a fully automated approach. Participants were divided into three predefined risk categories: DCcategory0 – low-risk (> 4.5ms); DCcategory1 – intermediate-risk (2.5-4.5ms); and DCcategory2 – high-risk (≤ 2.5ms). More than two-thirds of the participants (n = 564, 68.5%) fell into DCcategory0, about one-fifth (n = 168, 20.4%) into DCcategory1, and about one-tenth (n = 91, 11.1%) into DCcategory2. Estimated 13-years mortality in the risk groups was 16.7%, 23.5%, and 49.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Adjusting for age, life-style-related risk factors, and comorbidities, increased mortality risk was observed for DCcategory2 (HR 2.34, 95%-CI 1.56–3.50). Deceleration Capacity, derived automatically from brief 5-minute electrocardiogram recordings, emerges as a robust, feasible, and independent predictor of long-term mortality risk in the general population. In contemporary healthcare, effective risk stratification in the general population is vital amidst rising chronic disease rates and an ageing demographic. Deceleration Capacity of the heart rate (DC), derived from 24-hour Holter electrocardiograms, holds promise in risk stratification for cardiac patients. However, the potential of short-term electrocardiograms of five minutes duration for population screening has not been fully explored. Our study aims to investigate the utility of Deceleration Capacity derived from short-term electrocardiograms as a scalable, fully-automated screening tool for predicting long-term mortality risk in the general population. Within a cohort of a representative population-based survey in Germany (KORA-KMC-study), 823 participants with sinus rhythm aged 27 to 76 years at enrollment (females 47.4%) were followed for a median of 13.4 years (IQR 13.1-13.6). All-cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint and observed in 159 participants. Deceleration Capacity was calculated from 5-minute 12-lead electrocardiograms by a fully automated approach. Participants were divided into three predefined risk categories: DC - low-risk (> 4.5ms); DC - intermediate-risk (2.5-4.5ms); and DC - high-risk (≤ 2.5ms). More than two-thirds of the participants (n = 564, 68.5%) fell into DC , about one-fifth (n = 168, 20.4%) into DC , and about one-tenth (n = 91, 11.1%) into DC . Estimated 13-years mortality in the risk groups was 16.7%, 23.5%, and 49.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Adjusting for age, life-style-related risk factors, and comorbidities, increased mortality risk was observed for DC (HR 2.34, 95%-CI 1.56-3.50). Deceleration Capacity, derived automatically from brief 5-minute electrocardiogram recordings, emerges as a robust, feasible, and independent predictor of long-term mortality risk in the general population. In contemporary healthcare, effective risk stratification in the general population is vital amidst rising chronic disease rates and an ageing demographic. Deceleration Capacity of the heart rate (DC), derived from 24-hour Holter electrocardiograms, holds promise in risk stratification for cardiac patients. However, the potential of short-term electrocardiograms of five minutes duration for population screening has not been fully explored. Our study aims to investigate the utility of Deceleration Capacity derived from short-term electrocardiograms as a scalable, fully-automated screening tool for predicting long-term mortality risk in the general population. Within a cohort of a representative population-based survey in Germany (KORA-KMC-study), 823 participants with sinus rhythm aged 27 to 76 years at enrollment (females 47.4%) were followed for a median of 13.4 years (IQR 13.1–13.6). All-cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint and observed in 159 participants. Deceleration Capacity was calculated from 5-minute 12-lead electrocardiograms by a fully automated approach. Participants were divided into three predefined risk categories: DCcategory0 – low-risk (> 4.5ms); DCcategory1 – intermediate-risk (2.5-4.5ms); and DCcategory2 – high-risk (≤ 2.5ms). More than two-thirds of the participants (n = 564, 68.5%) fell into DCcategory0, about one-fifth (n = 168, 20.4%) into DCcategory1, and about one-tenth (n = 91, 11.1%) into DCcategory2. Estimated 13-years mortality in the risk groups was 16.7%, 23.5%, and 49.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Adjusting for age, life-style-related risk factors, and comorbidities, increased mortality risk was observed for DCcategory2 (HR 2.34, 95%-CI 1.56–3.50). Deceleration Capacity, derived automatically from brief 5-minute electrocardiogram recordings, emerges as a robust, feasible, and independent predictor of long-term mortality risk in the general population. |
| ArticleNumber | 30566 |
| Author | Rizas, Konstantinos D. Linkohr, Birgit Rückert-Eheberg, Ina-Maria Steger, Alexander Barthel, Petra Hapfelmeier, Alexander Laugwitz, Karl-Ludwig Müller, Alexander Allescher, Julia Schmidt, Georg Peters, Annette Heidegger, Helene Hildegard Müller, Arne Michael Maier, Melanie Sinnecker, Daniel Martens, Eimo Sinner, Moritz F. Kääb, Stefan |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Alexander surname: Steger fullname: Steger, Alexander email: alexander.steger@tum.de organization: Department of Internal Medicine I, TUM University Hospital, Technical University of Munich, German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance – sequence: 2 givenname: Petra surname: Barthel fullname: Barthel, Petra organization: Department of Internal Medicine I, TUM University Hospital, Technical University of Munich – sequence: 3 givenname: Alexander surname: Müller fullname: Müller, Alexander organization: Department of Internal Medicine I, TUM University Hospital, Technical University of Munich – sequence: 4 givenname: Ina-Maria surname: Rückert-Eheberg fullname: Rückert-Eheberg, Ina-Maria organization: Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health – sequence: 5 givenname: Birgit surname: Linkohr fullname: Linkohr, Birgit organization: German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health – sequence: 6 givenname: Julia surname: Allescher fullname: Allescher, Julia organization: Department of Internal Medicine I, TUM University Hospital, Technical University of Munich – sequence: 7 givenname: Melanie surname: Maier fullname: Maier, Melanie organization: Department of Internal Medicine I, TUM University Hospital, Technical University of Munich – sequence: 8 givenname: Alexander surname: Hapfelmeier fullname: Hapfelmeier, Alexander organization: Institute of AI and Informatics in Medicine, TUM School of Medicine and Health, Technical University of Munich, Institute of General Practice and Health Services Research, TUM School of Medicine and Health, Technical University of Munich – sequence: 9 givenname: Eimo surname: Martens fullname: Martens, Eimo organization: Department of Internal Medicine I, TUM University Hospital, Technical University of Munich – sequence: 10 givenname: Helene Hildegard surname: Heidegger fullname: Heidegger, Helene Hildegard organization: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich – sequence: 11 givenname: Arne Michael surname: Müller fullname: Müller, Arne Michael organization: Department of Internal Medicine I, TUM University Hospital, Technical University of Munich – sequence: 12 givenname: Konstantinos D. surname: Rizas fullname: Rizas, Konstantinos D. organization: German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, Department of Cardiology, LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich – sequence: 13 givenname: Stefan surname: Kääb fullname: Kääb, Stefan organization: German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, Department of Cardiology, LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich – sequence: 14 givenname: Moritz F. surname: Sinner fullname: Sinner, Moritz F. organization: German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, Department of Cardiology, LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich – sequence: 15 givenname: Daniel surname: Sinnecker fullname: Sinnecker, Daniel organization: MVZ Harz – sequence: 16 givenname: Karl-Ludwig surname: Laugwitz fullname: Laugwitz, Karl-Ludwig organization: Department of Internal Medicine I, TUM University Hospital, Technical University of Munich, German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance – sequence: 17 givenname: Annette surname: Peters fullname: Peters, Annette organization: German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, LMU Munich – sequence: 18 givenname: Georg surname: Schmidt fullname: Schmidt, Georg organization: Department of Internal Medicine I, TUM University Hospital, Technical University of Munich, German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39702502$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Keywords | Fully automated biosignal analysis Non-invasive long-term risk stratification General population screening Electrocardiogram Deceleration capacity of the heart rate Autonomic regulation |
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| Title | Deceleration capacity derived from a five-minute electrocardiogram predicts mortality in the general population |
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