Nomogram for Prediction of Prostate Cancer with Serum Prostate Specific Antigen Less than 10 ng/mL

• Published in: Journal of Korean medical science Vol. 29; no. 3; pp. 338 - 342
• Main Authors: Ahn, Jae Hyun, Lee, Jeong Zoo, Chung, Moon Kee, Ha, Hong Koo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Korea (South) The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences 01.03.2014; 대한의학회
• Subjects: Adult; Age Factors; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Area Under Curve; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Multivariate Analysis; Nomograms; Original; Predictive Value of Tests; Prostate - physiology; Prostate-Specific Antigen - blood; Prostatic Neoplasms - diagnosis; Prostatic Neoplasms - pathology; Risk Factors; ROC Curve; 의학일반; Prostatic Neoplasms; Biopsy; Prostate; Nomograms
• ISSN: 1011-8934; 1598-6357; 1598-6357
• DOI: 10.3346/jkms.2014.29.3.338

Although prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is a very useful screening tool, prostate biopsy is still necessary to confirm prostate cancer (PCA). However, it is reported that PSA is associated with a high false-positive rate and prostate biopsy also has various procedure-related complications. Therefore, the authors have devised a nomogram, which can be used to estimate the risk of PCA, using available clinical data for men with a serum PSA less than 10 ng/mL. Prostate biopsies were obtained from 2,139 patients from January 1998 to March 2011. Of them, 1,171 patients with a serum PSA less than 10 ng/mL were only included in this study. Patient age, PSA, free PSA, prostate volume, PSA density and percent free PSA ratio were analyzed. Among 1,171 patients, 255 patients (21.8%) were diagnosed as PCA. Multivariate analyses showed that patient age, prostate volume, PSA and percent free PSA had statistically significant relationships with PCA (P < 0.05) and were used as nomogram predictor variables. The area under the (ROC) curve for all factors in a model predicting PCA was 0.759 (95% CI, 0.716-0.803).