Numerical algorithms for estimation and calculation of parameters in modeling pest population dynamics and evolution of resistance

• Published in: Mathematical biosciences Vol. 233; no. 2; pp. 77 - 89
• Main Authors: Shi, Mingren, Renton, Michael
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Elsevier Inc 01.10.2011
• Subjects: Adsorption; Algorithms; Animals; Computer Simulation; computer software; Drug Resistance; evolution; Genotype; Insecta - growth & development; insects; least squares; loci; Models, Biological; Mortality estimation; Offspring genotype table; Parameter estimation; pests; Population Dynamics; population growth; prediction; Probit models; progeny; Resistance evolution; simulation models; sorption isotherms; Offspring genotype table; Parameter estimation; Population dynamics; Probit models; Resistance evolution; Mortality estimation
• ISSN: 0025-5564; 1879-3134; 1879-3134
• DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2011.06.005

► Simulating resistance evolution in insects needs accurate estimation of parameters. ► Presenting novel methods for estimation of such parameters. ► Generating offspring genotype tables for one- or two-locus cases. ► Extending this to more than two loci. ► Addressing estimation of parameters in probit models of kill rates. Computational simulation models can provide a way of understanding and predicting insect population dynamics and evolution of resistance, but the usefulness of such models depends on generating or estimating the values of key parameters. In this paper, we describe four numerical algorithms generating or estimating key parameters for simulating four different processes within such models. First, we describe a novel method to generate an offspring genotype table for one- or two-locus genetic models for simulating evolution of resistance, and how this method can be extended to create offspring genotype tables for models with more than two loci. Second, we describe how we use a generalized inverse matrix to find a least-squares solution to an over-determined linear system for estimation of parameters in probit models of kill rates. This algorithm can also be used for the estimation of parameters of Freundlich adsorption isotherms. Third, we describe a simple algorithm to randomly select initial frequencies of genotypes either without any special constraints or with some pre-selected frequencies. Also we give a simple method to calculate the “stable” Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium proportions that would result from these initial frequencies. Fourth we describe how the problem of estimating the intrinsic rate of natural increase of a population can be converted to a root-finding problem and how the bisection algorithm can then be used to find the rate. We implemented all these algorithms using MATLAB and Python code; the key statements in both codes consist of only a few commands and are given in the appendices. The results of numerical experiments are also provided to demonstrate that our algorithms are valid and efficient.